Florida Gators Upward Trajectory could Signal Billy Napier Return

Against all odds, Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier leads his team against the Georgia Bulldogs this weekend, and he could be back in 2025.

Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier and DJ Lagway have re-energized the program. / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

A month ago, the following statement would incur side eyes and derision: Billy Napier has earned another year at the University of Florida. Yes, that Billy Napier. A man that the fanbase would pitch in a U-Haul to help him move far away from Gainesville. 

On September 2nd, Napier was the bettors' favorite to be the first coach fired in 2024. Come November, he's still standing.

Napier actually tuned out the noise, choosing to focus on what he can control, at least from an external view. Either way, the Florida Gators look better than they have in years. 

Turning Point

After Graham Mertz fell to injury, fate forced Napier's hand. In a world where he wanted to continue to use the two-quarterback system, a season-ending injury halted that. With DJ Lagway as the only viable option, Napier threw his support behind his freshman signal caller. Early playing time for Lagway paid dividends. He was not a wide-eyed freshman making his first start against an SEC opponent.

The program rallied around Lagway, buying in on both sides of the ball. Now, no one should subscribe to moral victories, but Florida started moving the ball versus Tennessee. From there, you could sense a change for the head coach. His posture, normally slouching and resigned, morphed into a head raised high. Additionally, his voice, normally solemn, filled with hope. That change does not remain unnoticed. 

Same Team, New Outlook

During the Tennessee loss, the longer the game went, the more confidence that Florida built on both sides of the ball. While Lagway will occasionally throw a head-scratcher of an interception, those flashes of brilliant play also increase. 

In a vacuum, you can see what Napier and teammates see. Plus, with Montrell Johnson hurting, Jadan Baugh stepped up providing a monster night versus Kentucky. Likewise, the defense finally woke up. Cormani McClain ran a pick back, exciting the fanbase and energizing the team. 

NAIL IN THE COFFIN @CormaniMcclain1

📺 SEC Network pic.twitter.com/6tf0uNcgnu

— Florida Gators Football (@GatorsFB) October 20, 2024

The Alternatives

If Florida fired Napier, no clear, undisputed candidate steps forward. People spoke highly of Lane Kiffin, who in reality, sits on a pile of NIL cash, and is treated like a king at Ole Miss. Why would he leave the security of Oxford for the treacherous surroundings of Gainesville. 

Kiffin couldn't handle Kentucky at home, a team that Florida dismantled on national TV. Also, you may as well wave goodbye to a portion of the recruits. Kiffin loves the transfer portal and no highly-touted freshman will want to sit behind a one-year player. 

Two For a Bowl

In order to gain bowl eligibility, Florida needs to win two of their last five games: Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State. Theoretically, they went to overtime with Tennessee. Georgia, while looking very mortal, beat Texas. LSU lost to a mediocre USC team and lost by two touchdowns to Texas A&M.

Kentucky's defense suffocated Ole Miss. Florida State currently endures a brutal season with just one victory. With all candor, Ole Miss and Florida State fall into the winnable category. If Napier wills his team to a bowl game, his return becomes nearly definite. In addition, how Florida plays well in these last-five games goes a long way into determining his fate.

Overview

Billy Napier doesn't need to be anyone's favorite head coach. Funny quips and one-liners will not fly out of his mouth. If he can salvage 2024, beset by injury and a brutal schedule, the job remains his. Napier, to this point, has yet to capture the hearts and minds of his program, but it's now trending in the right direction.

Despite every possible aspect of the team failing early, the Florida Gators can still make a bowl game. Billy Napier may never be an ultra-popular choice among the fanbase. Doesn't matter. Keep the team on this current-upward trajectory, and he’ll become an ultra-popular coach at Florida.