Florida vs. Utah: Picks and Predictions for Week 1

The All Gators staff provides its picks and predictions for Florida's Week 1 road matchup with Utah.

SALT LAKE CITY, Utah -- We made it. 

Week 1 of the 2023 college football season is here, and it will kick off with a rematch: Florida has traveled west to face Utah on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET/6 p.m. MT, in the concluding contest of the home-and-home series between the two programs. 

Utah is considered a 4.5-point favorite over Florida, according to the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook. The over/under is currently 44.5 points. 

Find All Gators' picks and predictions for Florida's season-opening contest with Utah below. 

Zach Goodall: Utah 21, Florida 17

Round two of Florida vs. Utah is on the doorstep, set to kick off on Thursday in primetime. 

I predict this series will end in a split with each home team emerging victorious. Much like the heat and humidity of The Swamp hurting the Utes last year, the altitude of Salt Lake City will impact the Gators in both trenches — units that are considered critically important to Florida's success in 2023 after an offseason of acquiring reinforcements at those spots.

But aside from factors involving location, Utah is simply the more experienced and proven team between the two in most categories. Its first-team offense, which averaged the NCAA's 11th-best 38.6 points per game a year ago, has combined to start 162 games, and its first-team defense, ranking No. 27 nationally for allowing 21.4 points per game last season, has combined to start 140.

Granted, the statuses of starting quarterback Cameron Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe are in doubt for the game. But backup quarterback Bryson Barnes has proven effective previously with 13 appearances, 453 yards and five touchdowns across 59 passing attempts in his career. And the tight ends on Utah's depth chart, sans Kuithe, have combined for 78 appearances and 15 starts to date.

Comparatively, Florida's first-team offense has combined for 117 starts, with 45 under the belts of offseason transfers who will make their UF debut this week. Another 26 starts come from center Kingsley Eguakun, who is questionable for the game with an injury that has made him unavailable in practice over the past two weeks.

Thirty-two of those transfer starts come from quarterback Graham Mertz, whose unsuccessful four-year stint at Wisconsin led him to find a new team this offseason, hoping that a change of scenery can rejuvenate his football career.

And, on the opposite side, the first-team defense has combined for 71 starts. Five listed starters will make their premiere in such a role on Thursday. 

Whether or not you believe Florida improved its talent stockpile this offseason — I do, albeit for the long-term more than the short-term — the odds are stacked against the Gators in this matchup. It's hard to pick a team that experienced roster turnover to the extent Florida has this year, freshly removed from a losing season, to beat a reigning conference champion on their turf.

Brandon Carroll: Florida 24, Utah 20

Man, it’s good to be back.

With the expected absences of Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe, I can’t see this contest being a high-scoring affair given the aptitude of both defenses.

Utah brings in a unit I anticipate ranking in the top 15 of programs in total defense this season, given its stout first and second levels, led by linebackers Landon Barton and Karene Reid. As a result, they’ll fare well when combatting a talented duo of ball carriers, Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne.

Meanwhile, the Gators' defense will likely witness a resurge in production compared to the past three campaigns. The bolstered defensive line group, introduction of Austin Armstrong and newfound energy the unit exudes will contribute to halting the Utes attack.

Both squads will key in on stopping the run, forcing the ball into the hands of the opposing passer to make plays. I trust the Florida quarterback Graham Mertz more than Bryson Barnes in that situation.

I see this game being decided by who can eclipse the 21-point mark first. I think Mertz produces above his game-manager expectations to elevate the Gators' offense to 24 total points in a 24-20 victory over the Utes.

Conner Clarke: Florida 20, Utah 17 

Florida has traveled to Salt Lake City for round two of its series with Utah. Last season saw the Gators squeak out a victory in the waning moments of the fourth quarter, so you can be sure that Utah wants payback now that UF is on its turf.

Utah returns much of last year's team with two key contributors in doubt leading up to Thursday’s matchup. One of those is veteran quarterback Cam Rising. Rising is just under eight months removed from ACL surgery and Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham is playing the game of not announcing his status until he has to. 

However, ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported Wednesday afternoon that Rising is doubtful for the game and that he expects junior walk-on Bryson Barnes to start.

Without Rising at the helm, this Utah team is very different. The Utes have always been a run-first squad that likes to control the tempo and the clock, but Rising gave the offense an added dimension with his ability to both extend plays and hurt defenses with his legs, and that goes without mentioning his passing prowess. 

I expect Utah to lean even more into the run game on Thursday, even involving a dynamic running threat in backup quarterback Nate Johnson, to show the new-look Florida defense — which I expect to be much improved from last season under the direction of new coordinator Austin Armstrong — something different.

And while I don’t expect Florida’s offense to look drastically different from last year, I believe you could see more explosive plays even without the presence of first-round former Gators quarterback Anthony Richardson. 

Florida added young weapons this offseason in receivers Eugene “Tre” Wilson and Andy Jean, who I expect to get significant playing time, and returns receivers Ricky Pearsall, Caleb Douglas and former walk-on Kahleil Jackson, and running backs Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne for their second year in the system. The latter group should benefit from familiarity to play faster and more freely.

If new UF quarterback Graham Mertz can take care of the ball, get it into the hands of his playmakers early and hit the underneath throws that were there against this team last year, I really like Florida’s chances to win this game. 

I expect this to be a grind-it-out kind of contest with two defenses going at it against two offenses that will still be working out some kinks under new starting quarterbacks. However, I think the absence of Cam Rising will just be too much for Utah to overcome, so I've got the Gators winning a close one on the road. 

Cam Parker: Florida 28, Utah 24

The 2023 version of Florida's matchup with the Utes sees almost two completely different teams meet on the field. The Gators will introduce a new quarterback, new receiver rotation, mostly-new offensive line, mostly-new defensive line, new starting linebacker unit and two new starting safeties. 

Meanwhile, Utah will be without star quarterback Cam Rising, per reports, and could be without tight end Brant Kuithe. They will also have two offensive linemen with three starts combined, including a true freshman.

That being said, it should be a lot of the same as 2023. The Gators will need to rely heavily on the run combined with an efficient effort from Graham Mertz. Trusting Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne to carry the load will be the key.

Despite being young, the defense should be improved under Austin Armstrong. Without Rising and possibly Kuithe, who caught nine catches for 105 yards and a score in last year's game, Florida's defense should have a stronger chance. 

If Kuithe plays, and if expected starter Bryson Barnes shines, it could spell trouble for the Gators. But for now, I think Florida will find a way to pull this one out.

Alex Shepherd: Utah 24, Florida 20

Sept. 3, 2022: The day the Florida Gators shocked the college football world by defeating an incredibly talented Utah team in The Swamp. It was a coming-out party for future first-round pick and now NFL starting quarterback, Anthony Richardson, and a massive statement victory to kick off the Billy Napier era. 

Now, some 360+ days later, the Utes are looking for revenge. 

As we all know, the Gators will rely heavily on the run game featuring the two-headed monster of Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne while trusting newly-minted starting quarterback Graham Mertz to get the ball out quickly to his playmakers. 

The real question is, can Florida stretch the field and make explosive plays through the air to balance out the rushing attack?

I truly believe the Gators will be a better team than many of the pundits are making them out to be this season. But these sorts of things take time, including the need for chemistry to build with Mertz under center.

Should Utah quarterback Cam Rising suit up and play, an experienced Utah team may be just too much for the Gators to take on in year one of what I expect to become a strong, Austin Armstrong-led defensive unit. If Rising sits out or isn’t playing at 100%, I could easily see the score being reversed. 

Either way, this one should be a battle to the bitter end. 

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