Florida vs. LSU: Three key matchups that will decide the game, with in-depth stats for context

Using in-depth stats from PFF and Expand The Box Score, GatorMaven chalks up the three most important personnel matchups for Saturday's game between Florida and LSU.

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We said it last week before the No. 7 Auburn Tigers came to town. We'll say it this week while the Gators travel to Death Valley to face No. 5 LSU. And we'll probably say it entering Week 10 prior to the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party and Florida vs. No. 3 Georgia.

This is the biggest game of Florida's season. And although it will be a challenge for Florida to knock off the No. 5 LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge, it's possible.

Here are the three key personnel matchups that can put the game in Florida's favor, should the Gators prevail in each category. As always, thanks to Pro Football Focus and Expand The BoxScore for their in-depth stats providing context for each matchup.

Get Joe Burrow into the dirt

This is, truly, the only make-or-break matchup for this game.

Joe Burrow has been electric for LSU this year. He is not the same QB who threw two game-icing interceptions in The Swamp last season. Completing 78.4% of his passes, including 70.7% while under pressure, Burrow has displayed incredible accuracy and poise in LSU's new-look, positive-passing spread offense. He's posted 1864 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and only three interceptions in five games.

The Gators own one of, if not the, most dominant pass-rushing units in the nation, so getting pressure on Burrow should be no issue, as LSU is giving up nearly 12 QB pressures per game against far lesser competition. With Jabari Zuniga back in the fold, expect a really good showing off of the edges from him and Jonathan Greenard.

But considering Burrow's efficiency under pressure, with 496 yards and six touchdowns on 58 pressured dropbacks, Florida has to do more than just pressure Burrow and make him move. They have to get sacks.

While Gators head coach Dan Mullen calls Burrow "deceptively athletic", he has taken two sacks per game when under pressure - that's one sack for every six pressured snaps.

Florida is currently tied for third in the country with 26 sacks. Their goal should be to exit the weekend in first. Should that goal prevail, there's a good chance that Florida rattled Burrow enough to kill drives and slow him down.

Amari Burney and Co. covering the short field

This game is why Amari Burney moved from safety to linebacker.

Florida has struggled covering the short/intermediate middle of the field for some time with linebackers that are typically considered run-game thumpers. However, the Gators transitioned a former safety in Burney to linebacker over this past offseason, adding necessary muscle in order to sustainably play in the tackle box, yet keep his athleticism to provide an upgrade in coverage for the linebacker unit.

Burney has looked solid in coverage at linebacker so far, recording an interception and mirroring routes like a safety. He's done particularly well in the flats, which is a testament to his lateral agility remaining a strong skill of his despite the added weight.

He's going to have to continue his good play against Burrow and Co., as Burrow has completed 70 of his 82 (85.4%) of his passes behind the line of scrimmage up to 10 yards up the field. His 82 attempts within that range equate to 50.6% of his passing attempts - expect Burrow to target Burney, the linebackers, and the STAR nickel cornerback often.

Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Terrace Marshall Jr. lead LSU in receptions, combining for 73. Expand The Box Score splits the field into a four-yard to 13-yard range in order to be considered short-to-intermediate, and 47.2% of those three receivers receptions have come within that range. Not to mention, running backs have seen 34 targets (a 19.8% target share) for LSU this year.

Burney, David Reese, and Trey Dean III are going to have to prove just how dependable they can be in coverage this week.

Florida's unpredictable WR corps vs. LSU secondary

The video above is a clip from this week's GatorMaven Podcast, where I discussed the unpredictability of Florida's wide receiver corps and how big of a deal that unpredictability is for the Gators.

Florida is, at least, two-deep at all three basic receiver positions, the outside receivers and at slot. And of course, there's also utility player Kadarius Toney when he's healthy, an emerging tight end in Kyle Pitts, and running back Lamical Perine's contributions to the passing game. It's nearly impossible to say one player in particular is in line for a big day against any team, because at least six or seven players can explode onto the scene.

LSU packs a ton of talent in their secondary, including future first-round pick safety Grant Delpit and his partner Kary Vincent Jr. on the backend, with true freshman Derek Stingley Jr. and Kristian Fulton at the cornerback spots. Those three are combining to allow only a completion percentage of 46%.

Florida is going to have to rely on their underneath game, a strong aspect of the passing offense that GatorMaven identified last week, in order to get things flowing and prevent getting shutdown by LSU's talented back four. As previously stated, it's tough to predict any player in particular to have a big day, but Josh Hammond, Freddie Swain, Pitts and Perine all have a good shot.

Freddie Swain's in-depth stats through Week 6, at ExpandTheBoxScore.com