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Miami Hurricanes at Florida Gators Predictions from Gators Illustrated

The dog days are over and it's game day. The Miami Hurricanes visit the Florida Gators today, and Gators Illustrated has your predictions.

Scott Kennedy

Florida Gators quarterback Graham Mertz will look to lead his team past the Florida Gators.
Florida Gators quarterback Graham Mertz will look to lead his team past the Florida Gators. / Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK
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The Miami Hurricanes visit the Florida Gators on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. The game will be televised on ABC at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. The Hurricanes enter the game a slight favorite according to the odds makers, but ESPN's Gamecast gives Florida a 57.5% chance to win.

A high scoring affair is expected with an Over/Under of 54.5 with several Gators Illustrated contributors predicting the over.

Cam Parker, @CamParker25
Florida 31, Miami 27

Two programs in similar spots considering the last couple of years and an emphasis on using the NCAA Transfer Portal this season. Considering the atmosphere, the edge should be given to Florida. The Gators are usually good for one big win over a ranked opponent at home early in the season (No. 7 Utah in 2022, No. 11 Tennessee in 2023), and this year, it'll be over No. 19 Miami. 

Kyle Lander, @_KyleLander
Florida 31, Miami 27

With Florida hosting, I think the Gators take this one. Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is ranked inside the top 10 of the toughest stadiums to play in and is going to be a deciding factor in this contest. With Miami bringing in a load of new talent who will still need time to gel, this will be a sloppy game on both sides, but the crowd does just enough to push the Gators over the finish line.

Additionally, Graham Mertz is returning for his second season in Gainesville and will be paramount for the Gators success in this game. If Florida is going to win, they are going to need to get the passing game going early because the Miami defensive line is no pushover.

Terrance Biggs, @TequilaBiggs
Florida 37-33

While Cam Ward enters the game with a wealth of experience,  most of the Florida secondary boasts cohesion. Meanwhile, Graham Mertz, surrounded by a veteran receiver group faces an unproven Miami secondary, including a true freshman starting corner. Gators win a high-scoring affair.

Harrison Smajovits, @HarrisonSmaj
Miami 31 - Florida 24

Miami comes in with some stellar additions from the portal, quarterback Cam Ward and running back Damien Martinez. These are two weapons that can very much exploit Florida’s questionable defense. 

I wouldn’t sleep on Graham Mertz. He exceeded expectations a year ago and has Eugene Wilson III and transfer from Arizona State Elijah Badger as two very strong targets in the passing game. They should be able to compete at least from the air. 

Not sure if they can compete on the ground. Miami has a tough rushing defense and while Montrell Johnson is cleared to play, his actual effectiveness is TBD. We also don’t know how much Treyaun Webb or freshmen such as K.D. Daniels can make up for losing Trevor Etienne. 

Also, yes, the Swamp is a tough environment, but Florida has lost some winnable games at home lately - that overtime loss to Arkansas still sticks out to me. 

Maybe I’m falling for the noise, but I think Miami takes this one. It'll be close because of the Swamp, but home field won't be enough this time for Florida.

Scott Kennedy, @ScoutKennedy
Florida 27, Miami 23

Maybe I'm naive and still believe in SEC defenses and Big 12 football hasn't infected the rest of the country beyond return. However, the first game of the year between two-relatively evenly matched foes should go to home team with the experienced quarterback.

Graham Mertz quietly had a good season with 20 touchdowns against three interceptions last year. Cam Ward may need some time to settle in, and the Swamp, in August no less, is a tough place to make your first start with your new team.

Florida Gators vs. No. 19 Miami: What You Need to Know

Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Fla.

When: Saturday, Aug. 31, 3:30 p.m.

  • Gator Walk: 1:10 p.m., Gator Walk Village, North side of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium adjacent to University Avenue.
  • Pregame Mr. Two-Bits: Former UF DE Jevon Kearse (1995-1998)

Watch: ABC/ESPN+

  • Play-by-play: Joe Tessitore
  • Analyst: Jesse Palmer
  • Reporter: Katie George

Weather: 90°, sunny with a three percent chance of precipitation, according to Weather.com.

Radio: Gator Sports Network from LEARFIELD

  • Play-by-play: Sean Kelley
  • Analyst: Shane Matthews
  • Reporter: Tate Casey

Odds: Miami is considered a 2.5-point favorite over Florida in Week One, according to Fanduel. The over/under is 54.5 points. 

Series History: Miami leads, 29-27. The Gators defeated the Hurricanes, 24-20, in the series’ last matchup on Aug. 24, 2019, in Orlando, Fla. 

What’s At Stake: Florida currently holds a 33-game home opener win streak and haven’t lost back-to-back season openers since 1978-1979. The Gators also haven’t defeated the Hurricanes in two-straight matchups since 1982-1983. Miami is looking for its first win in The Swamp since 2002. 

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