UCF Knights at Florida Gators Prediction

After shaking off some rust from the bye week, the Florida Gators come alive in the second half against the UCF Knights.

Florida Gators quarterback Graham Mertz should have time to operate against UCF. / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

UCF presents a unique set of problems for the Florida Gators and Billy Napier. The Knights envision a game played at breakneck speed in order to fatigue defenses and get to the red zone as fast as humanly possible. Meanwhile, Napier understands, as he articulated during media availability, how his team needs to conquer their in-state foe.

The Track Meet

As mentioned, UCF wanted to execute a ton of offensive plays. Throughout the week and bye week, Napier prepared his team, as to what to expect.

"We have built our practice plans around the things we feel like we needed to improve upon," said Napier. "I think last week and I even think some of the adjustments we've made in terms of the routine Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays has been very specific so I feel good about those parts of our team and hopefully that will pay off."

TE Effect

In this game, look for a concerted effort to feed the tight ends, who, if we are honest, possess an athletic advantage over parts of the UCF defense. Also, with little in the way of pass rush from them, Napier wants that position to see more than their fair share of targets.

“I think all those guys have improved," said Napier. "Even Tony Livingston, his role’s increased a little bit. We got three really good players there. Certainly Hayden and Arlis continue to get better. We want to distribute the ball. We want to have tight ends that are match-up issues. And both those guys have done a good job, not only as a vertical threat but as a run after catch threat and as many gaps as you can create gives us a little bit of versatility."

Final Prediction

After trading early field goals, UCF, via the running game mixed with Jefferson athleticism, takes a 17-6 lead into halftime. Nothing goes right for Florida at all. In fact two turnovers and a missed field goal lends itself to this evolving nightmare. The break at halftime does the Gators a world of benefit. 

The tight ends start becoming a huge presence, combining for 70 yards on seven catches and a touchdown in the final thirty minutes. Yet, the much-maligned defense bows up, stands up and shows up. 

While KJ Jefferson breaks free on what looks like yet another long gain on the ground, a hand calmly punches the ball out. Florida recovers. Mertz with the game-winning touchdown pass as The Swamp comes unglued. 

Final Score:

Gators: 33
UCF: 29

The Florida Gators (2-2) host the UCF Knights (3-1) at The Swamp on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. EST. The game will be televised on the SEC Network. UCF is considered a 1.5-point favorite, and ESPN gives the Gators a 51.9% chance of winning.