LSU Tigers at Florida Gators Predictions and Preview

The Florida Gators still have a chance at a bowl game. The LSU Tigers still have a remote chance at a playoff spot. Only one survives in the Swamp on Saturday.

Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier and quarterback DJ Lagway end LSU's playoff hopes once and for all. / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

With a 16% chance of making the College Football Playoff, LSU needs to win out and get help. In contrast, the Florida Gators must win two of the last three games just to make a bowl. Desperation feels different when perspective changes. 

On paper, that's what makes this game more interesting. Someone will leave Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday night with their chosen set of aspirations snuffed out between the lines. In football, life gets no better than a must-win.

READ MORE: How to Watch LSU at Florida, TV, Injuries, Betting

The Goal

Say what you will about Billy Napier, he fights. When the season looked all but over, he rallied the team. When the team lost Graham Mertz to injury, Napier helped hold the team together. Granted, Texas did soundly defeat the Gators. 

However, Florida did not lay down and continued to fight back. That resolve starts with the head coach. During media availability, Napier  discussed the plan going forward.

"Well, I think you're always thinking big picture,” said Napier. “But it's important, like it's big picture, but it's a little process. So, one of the terms I've been using all week from the very beginning of the week is work as if you're on a one-day contract, -and maybe you get to call it a night to come back, maybe you don't. 

“Let's focus, be present. Let's focus on the work and the task at hand, and then we'll take a deep breath, eat a good meal, get a good night's rest and we'll get the call to come back tomorrow. So, we are completely 100% focused on LSU, nothing else matters. We just did Wednesday. Hopefully we get a call back tonight, and we're going to show up tomorrow."

Air Show

No SEC quarterback lets the ball fly more than LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. He has 54-more attempts (375) than Georgia’s Carson Beck at No. 2 (321). Similarly, no quarterback completed more passes. 

Yet, Nussmeier connects with targets less than 63% of the time, eighth in the SEC. As a result of the ball in the air with frequency, he presents the Gators with ample opportunity to jump a route and make the Tigers pay. 

Nussmeier enjoys weapons but not the success that became commonplace in Baton Rouge. There’s no Justin Jefferson or Jamar Chase on the field for the Bayou Bengals in 2024. 

Florida's secondary needs to get aggressive early and often. Granted, the UF pass rush looks nonexistent. Hope arrives in the form of blitzes and loops/stunts. Not a threat to run, Nussmeier will stand in the pocket to deliver a throw.

Final Predictions

For the Florida Gators, this looks like their last stand. Ole Miss looms on the horizon, and they provide a tougher matchup. LSU holds onto the dream of a playoff spot. In this game, Florida outright crushes their playoff aspirations. Simply, they need this win more than LSU.

You will see DJ Lagway become the undisputed leader of this team. Hobbled by a lower body injury, Lagway thrives on sheer will and purpose. He completes almost two-thirds of his passes. More importantly, his yards per attempt will allow Florida to rapidly move the ball downfield, allowing the run game to punch in from inside the five. 

They accomplish this three times. On the other hand, LSU will force a couple of turnovers, with one leading to score. Meanwhile, the secondary bails out the pass rush, picking off a couple passes. Nussmeier does find the turf via sack at least twice, and is hit at least a half-dozen times. 

Florida will play as aggressively as they have during all of Billy Napier's tenure. While close, the Gators run the clock out, cementing a victory, bringing them one step closer to bowl eligibility.

Score:

Florida: 33
LSU: 27