FSU Basketball Schedule Preview and Prediction
We're only a few hours from Florida State tipping off its season against Stetson, so let's get through my favorite article to write all year, the schedule preview, where I go game by game and give my predictions for the season. The Baba Miller news took the wind out of a lot of sails, so some predictions that may have been 50/50 in FSU's favor will now swing the other way.
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It's tough to get a real sense of the team given the way the last month has gone with Miller's suspension, Jaylan Gainey's season-ending injury, Chandler Jackson not having practiced much, and Jalen Warley missing the exhibition game. There's no real sense of what the team will be yet, but I'll give it my best shot.
Stetson, Mon. Nov 7
The Hatters are projected to be one of the worst teams in the A-SUN Conference, a lower mid-major conference. This should be a big win.
Win
at UCF, Fri. Nov 11
Having Darin Green Jr. on roster should help FSU in preparing for this game, as he knows some guys on this roster better than anyone. Former Oregon transfer CJ Walker is expected to take that next jump, but I'm not a huge fan of this roster. FSU played against Michigan in a secret scrimmage in Orlando, so they're prepped for the travel already. 'Noles in a close one.
Win
Troy, Mon. Nov 14
There are a lot of moving pieces on this Troy team that won 20 games a season ago on the backs of a very good defense. It may take a little for it to all come together, but they have the potential to be a contender in the Sun Belt. Should be a win, but this could be closer than many anticipate.
Win
Florida, Fri. Nov 18
The Gators have a new head coach in Todd Golden after Mike White bolted for rival Georgia (most UF fans were happy). Golden had success with San Francisco, so it'll be interesting to see if he can carry it over to the SEC. Colin Castleton will continue to be good and annoying, and they have a lot of incoming transfers from smaller schools. Kowacie Reeves is going to have to be as good as he was in the postseason for the whole season for UF to be good. If this was in Gainesville I'd take UF, but with it being in Tallahassee, I'll take the 'Noles in a tight one.
Win
Mercer, Mon. Nov 24
This is projected to be a middle of the road Southern Conference team, and they don't have much outside shooting on the roster, at least as they stand coming into the year. It's going to be an inside-out offense, and that's tough to do against Florida State with the lack of size they have.
Win
ESPN Events Invitational, Nov 24-27
Here is a look at the bracket.
Siena projects as one of the better teams in the Metro Atlantic conference, so this may be closer than you expect, but FSU should still come away with a win. Ole Miss and Stanford should be a very good game. I think Florida State has more talent on paper than both, but I think the Cardinal could give them some issues, should they face them. They have a lot of shooting, a lot of size on the wing, and both them and Ole Miss have a lot of experience.
I'm fairly certain whoever wins the Memphis/Seton Hall game is going to win the whole thing, but I'll take Memphis over Florida State in the championship game for this event.
2 wins, 1 loss in this event.
Purdue, Wed. Nov 30
I'm not sure how strong Purdue will be having lost Jaden Ivey, Sasha Stefanovic, Trevion Williams, and key guard Eric Hunter. I don't really trust their ball handling situation as it stands now, but Zach Edey is so good, that I don't know how well FSU will defend him. The 'Noles will want to get one back after the Boilermakers really roughed them up in West Lafayette last year, but I think FSU is just missing too much frontcourt depth to come away with this one.
Loss
at Virginia, Sat. Dec 3
Virginia hasn't forgotten the shot Matthew Cleveland made against them last year, and they'll want to get one back, for sure. Florida State has Virginia's system figured out recently on paper and on tape, but the execution just has to be better. Going to be a tough game to open ACC play with.
Loss
Louisville, Sat. Dec 10
The Cardinals just lost an exhibition game at home to D2 Lenoir Rhyne, who sat their two returning leading scorers from a team that went 10-18 a season ago. And they lost by double digits. FSU has dominated this series recently anyways, and this is a bad UL team.
Win
USC Upstate, Tue. Dec 13
They possess one of the best players in the Big South in Jordan Gainey, who shot almost 50% from 3 a season ago. Even though they have to replace three starters, they have more than enough talent to make some noise and make some shots. There's just not enough size to expect them to win.
Win
vs St Johns, Sat. Dec 17
There is no consensus on what the Red Storm will be this season. They should have a lot of playmaking between Posh Alexander and Illinois transfer Andre Curbelo, but there's also a chance those two combine for 7 turnovers per game. They have a couple of good shooters coming off of the bench, but their projected starting lineup has no one that shot more than 30% from 3 last season. That'll be an issue against FSU.
Win
Notre Dame, Wed. Dec 21
Notre Dame is going to be great at shooting the 3 against this season, and with no Baba Miller to stay attached to a guy like Nate Laszewski, this could be a long game for the 'Noles as they try and contain ND's 5-out offense this year.
Loss
at Duke, Sat. Dec 31
Duke is absurdly talented, though not a lot of chemistry. If everything is going well for the Blue Devils, it should be coming together right around this time. FSU hasn't had much luck recently in Cameron Indoor, and I don't see those odds changing here.
Loss
Georgia Tech, Sat. Jan 7
The Yellow Jackets are not very good. I don't trust a single player on that roster to consistently score. Not saying that it can't happen, but it would take a lot of FSU shooting themselves in the foot for GT to come away with this one.
Win
at Wake Forest, Wed. Jan 11
This is when Baba Miller is supposed to be reinstated, and naturally it's on a week day game on the road against what should be a solid team. Luckily, Miller will be able to practice while he's out, but getting him back in the rotation might prove a challenge.
Loss
Virginia, Sat. Jan 14
I'm expecting FSU to even the season series against Virginia at home. Getting Miller back will be huge with him having fresh legs against a UVA team that will try and make things sloppy.
Win
at Notre Dame, Tue. Jan 17
This is going to be a big test to see how much FSU has fixed their 3-point defense from a season ago, and having Miller back in the lineup will help with that. Still tough to expect FSU to win on the road in South Bend.
Loss
at Pittsburgh, Sat. Jan 21
John Hugley averaged 17.7 PPG and 7.1 RPG over the last 7 games of last season after he struggled in the FSU game last year, so he may be a little more motivated in this one. With the game being in Pittsburgh, a place where FSU is just 2-5 since Pitt joined the ACC, this one is a toss up.
Loss
Miami, Tue. Jan 24
As good as Miami was a season ago, FSU still beat them in both games. Miami should be a little more balanced this year and they have great shot-making between Isaiah Wong and Nijel Pack, but I expect FSU to get back on track here.
Win
Clemson, Sat. Jan 28
Instead of hitting the transfer portal, coach Brad Brownell brought in a lot of freshmen, something I'm not sure will work out. This is a game, on paper, that FSU should win handily.
Win
at NC State, Wed. Feb 1
Limit the Terquavion Smith explosion, and you should be fine in this game. NC State is lacking for talent this year.
Win
at Louisville, Sat. Feb 4
Unless Louisville has learned to be a good basketball team since the game in December, I'm not expecting much to change here.
Win
Syracuse, Wed. Feb 8
This is a stretch FSU has to take advantage of if they want a good seeding in the ACC Tournament. Syracuse is going to be relying a lot on a true freshman point guard, something they haven't had a lot of success with recently. FSU is going to have to be much better against the zone this year than last year, and hopefully they extend the winning streak here.
Win
Pittsburgh, Sat. Feb 11
You can't lose both games against Pitt if you expect to contend. This is a very winnable stretch of games that can push FSU forward in the ACC standings.
Win
at Clemson, Wed. Feb 15
The game at Clemson last year was the one where I finally went "This team just will not catch any break." Naheem McLeod left with a broken hand, PJ Hall was giving FSU hell, and some small chemistry issues seemed to break out. I think they'll get it back against what expects to be a bad Clemson team.
Win
Boston College, Sat. Feb 18
I don't see a way BC can be good this year, and they may have given up at this point in the season. This would give FSU a projected 8-game winning streak at a time when they desperately need it.
Win
at Miami, Feb. 25
This could have ACC seeding implications and is going to be a hard fought game. Miami should even the season series here, though.
Loss
North Carolina, Mon. Feb 27
FSU's only Big Monday game comes on what is normally senior night, but FSU's only "senior" is Jaylan Gainey, who isn't playing and will get a medical redshirt to come back next year. UNC is the class of the ACC this year, and will put FSU's 4-0 home Big Monday record since the start of the 2018 season on the line. Hard to take a team over UNC right now though.
Loss
at Virginia Tech, Sat. Mar 4
This could potentially be a bubble-deciding game for Florida State, and having lost two straight in my projection heading into this may have them on edge. FSU needs this game, but the Hokies shoot the ball so well, it could really go either way. I'll take the 'Noles, but I'm not confident in it whatsoever.
Win
Projected Season Record: 21-10 Overall, 12-8 ACC
That kind of record would put FSU firmly on the bubble, and the question would be whether or not there are enough good wins on the resume to get in. There are probably only 2-3 Q1 wins in this projection, which may not be enough.
Next up, we will finally have a game preview, getting us prepared for Stetson.
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Stick with NoleGameday for more coverage of Florida State basketball throughout the season.
