Game Preview: Florida State at Duke

The Seminoles are looking to pull off an improbable upset inside Cameron Indoor this evening.

Florida State broke its 6-game losing streak on Tuesday night against Clemson, now they go to Cameron Indoor for Coach K's second-to-last game ever in this arena. FSU is banged up, Duke will likely be looking for revenge for the last time these two teams played in the middle of January; there's a decent chance this one ends up ugly. 

Duke is currently on a three game winning streak, though their last loss was at home to a not-great Virginia squad, and their last game was at home against Wake Forest, who nearly came back from being down 17 points. If not for a late Mark Williams put back, the game would've gone to overtime. 

FSU has not won a game in 10-plus years, with the last one being one of the greatest games/finishes in Seminole Basketball history. 

An unranked FSU team coming into Cameron to play a top-10 Duke team..... hm....

This game will be at 6pm on ESPN, live from Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, NC. 

Duke Blue Devils (22-4, 12-3) Breakdown

Coach K's legendary career is coming to a close, and there will only be one more home game for him after this one. Florida State will be aiming to be the last team to beat Coach K on Coach K Court after Virginia just beat them a couple of weeks ago, and I really don't see UNC beating them in K's last game in Cameron. 

Duke has only played three home games since January 25: a 2-point win over Clemson, a 1-point loss to Virginia, and a 2-point win over Wake Forest. If Clemson can compete, FSU can as well, even if Duke is much more talented. This still should be a very motivated Duke team after being beaten in Tallahassee in January, one of their few losses this season. And since these two have already played, we'll just talk about what happened in that game. 

What Went Well For Duke: Duke was probably little surprised that FSU was punching them in the mouth as much as they did. Once Duke went zone though, things really struggled for Florida State offensively. They went on a 12-2 run over the last 5 minutes of regulation in large part due to the zone defense. If it weren't for Caleb Mills getting hot in overtime, FSU almost would've never scored against the zone. They were also able to hit 3s at a high level (10/23), and Mark Williams had three blocks. They were making life tough for FSU at the rim all game long. 

What Went Wrong For Duke: Florida State dominated the offensive glass with 19 offensive rebounds. Even if the 'Noles couldn't really consistently score, they were just unrelenting on the offensive end: McLeod had 6 off. boards, Fletcher and Cleveland each had 3... it's going to take that kind of effort again. Duke also was dominated in the turnover department: 15 turnovers of their own compared to just 5 for FSU. 

Florida State was able to swarm Duke with their defensive pressure, something I don't know if we'll be able to see in this given FSU's limited depth from injuries. Duke has only had six games all season with a turnover percentage north of 20%, and have lost three of them. If you're going to beat them, it starts with the turnovers. 

What Am I Expecting to Change: I'm expecting Duke to run a lot more zone defense in this game. Florida State was threatening to run away with the first game in Tallahassee before Duke went zone and came roaring back. We should be seeing it early and often in this one. Tanor Ngom only played one minute in the first matchup between these two as he was coming off of injury, and he was -5 in that one minute. Now that he's healthier and FSU's only true big that is getting playing time right, he's going to be tested by Mark Williams, and I think we'll see some actions from Duke targeting Ngom early in the game, just to see if he can keep up. A very athletic Duke team would love nothing more than to see walk-on Harrison Prieto play big minutes in this game. 

Florida State Seminoles (14-11, 7-8 Breakdown)

FSU now officially has a starting lineup's worth of injuries, which is never what you want to see. There's also a little bit of a tradition of an FSU senior having a very memorable performance in Cameron Indoor... let's take a look at some of them. 

In 2020, Trent Forrest came in and had a career high 8 steals, which is tied for 5th all time in FSU history, and was ever so close to a triple double (18 points, 9 rebounds). It was a typical statsheet stuffing day for Forrest, just with a little more than usual. 

In December 2017, both Phil Cofer* (28 points) and Braian Angola (23) had career highs in a high scoring, back and forth affair (Angola would break this career high about two weeks later). The two of them alone combined to shoot 11/22 from 3, and Angola was very close to a double-double with 8 rebounds. 

*Cofer would get another season of eligibility for a medical redshirt, but for all intents and purposes, he was a senior this season. 

Then obviously, in 2012 Bernard James had 12 points and 8 rebounds, Xavier Gibson led the way in scoring with 16 points, and Luke Loucks made the famous pass to Michael Snaer in the corner to win the game. 

There were a couple of other solid performances like Okaro White in 2014, but doesn't stand out as much as those other games. With Malik Osborne out and Anthony Polite not playing, RayQuan Evans is going to be playing through pain to have another all-time performance, Tanor Ngom is going to humble Mark Williams, or Wyatt Wilkes is going to have a completely unforeseen game. I'll let you decide which is the most likely. 

Injury Report

You can make an argument FSU's five best players are in the injury report and very well couldn't play. That's tough. 

RayQuan Evans hurt his knee at the end of Clemson and hasn't practiced, he's been officially announced as a game-time decision. Personally, I think he plays. 

Caleb Mills is also a game-time decision with an ankle injury and hasn't practiced, though I'm leaning towards him not playing. 

There's a small chance Anthony Polite returns from his wrist injury this game, though I think he'll sit this one out and come back next week. 

Malik Osborne and Naheem McLeod are out for the season with an ankle and hand injury, respectively. 

Coach K left their last game against Wake Forest at halftime after feeling lightheaded, and even got an IV at halftime, though it's been said he's been feeling better. I'd imagine he's back on the sidelines for this one. 

Projected Starters

Duke

G: Wendell Moore

G: Trevor Keels

G: AJ Griffin

F: Paolo Banchero

C: Mark Williams

Florida State

G: RayQuan Evans

G: Matthew Cleveland

G: Wyatt Wilkes

F: John Butler

C: Tanor Ngom

Keys to the Game

Ball Pressure

Florida State was able to win the first matchup in large part because of their ball pressure; Duke doesn't really have a true ball handler. They forced Duke into 15 turnovers, and a turnover rate of 21.1%. Duke had never seen a team front the post, pick up 94-feet, or play in the passing lanes like Florida State did against them. Having to start their sets 30-feet away from the basket was a little uncomfortable to them. If you can force them into another turnover rate north of 20%, FSU can give themselves a chance. 

3-Point Shooting

Since FSU's last win at Duke in 2012, they are shooting 30/83 (36.1%) from 3 at Cameron, which seems solid. Take out the December 2017's 15/32 performance from deep, and they're 15/51, which plummets the percentage down to 29.4%. You're going to have to hit shots in this to have a chance. There are depth perception things to work through, since Duke's baskets still hang from the arena, instead of the normal stanchions we see almost everywhere else. For a young FSU team, it'll be interesting to see how they overcome it.  

Oh, and that 2012 game? FSU was 7/14 (50%) from 3. 

Mark Williams on the Glass

Williams is currently 52nd nationally in offensive rebound rate, and played more minutes in any game in regulation against Florida State than against anyone else; Duke really likes this matchup because of his rebounding. He has a great interior presence that younger players may shy away from, and is an absolute beast on the glass. FSU was able to get a lot of offensive rebounds in the first game, but that was in large part due to Naheem McLeod. Who will step up the plate and box out Williams?

Game Prediction

Duke is currently favored by 15 points, with an over/under of 142.5.

Florida State usually plays Duke tough, and you always have to watch for the FSU-Senior-Playing-at-Duke bump, and Duke really hasn't been elite at home recently. The Blue Devils should also be realizing that Coach K has two games left in this arena, and should be motivated from the loss that came in Tallahassee. 

This is probably going to be all Duke, though hopefully it ends up being a much closer game. 

Duke 80-68