Game Preview: Florida State at Notre Dame

Can the Seminoles pull off their first win away from Tallahassee this season?

Florida State will be wrapping up their season series against Notre Dame tonight, and they’ll be looking to sweep the series while trying to get their first win away from Tallahassee this season. As I did with the Virginia, we’ll just be touching on what’s happened since these two last played before Christmas. 

READ MORE: Five-star running back Kam Davis discusses commitment to Florida State, trajectory of the program

This game will be at 7PM on ESPNU, live from Purcell Pavilion in South Bend, Indiana. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Breakdown

Since we last saw Notre Dame the week before Christmas, they’ve gone just 2-4, with the wins coming over Jacksonville and an overtime slugfest against Georgia Tech at home, which gives me the slightest confidence. 

In those games, they’ve really struggled from the free throw line, shooting just 64.4% from the free throw line and 35.6% from 3, well below their season averages of 37.9% from 3 and 76.2% from the line. It’s a big reason why they’ve been losing games recently. Even if their two wins have come at home, a 1-point overtime win over Georgia Tech isn’t exactly inspiring. Luckily they’ll be facing a Florida State team that has yet to win away from home. 

Dane Goodwin has stepped up since his poor performance against FSU, averaging over 14 PPG over these last six games. He’s important to the success of this team, and if he could’ve gotten anything going at all against FSU, they would’ve won. I’m looking for him to have a big performance in this as a bounce back. 

After scoring 20 against FSU the first time out, JJ Starling has really disappointed since, scoring just 10.2 PPG on 39.1% shooting from the floor, and was even out of the starting lineup against Georgia Tech. They’ve been making some more minutes for Marcus Hammond, who gives them a little more experience out there. 

Nate Laszewski is still leading the team in scoring, but didn’t have the easiest time scoring against FSU the first time out with just 12 points. I’m sure he’ll be looking for his shot more in this one, but I think FSU’s activity with Cameron Corhen and Baba Miller will give him issues. 

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown

FSU’s performance against Virginia was less than ideal, scoring just 58 points on 21/53 shooting from the floor and 5/19 from 3, while Virginia scored 67 points shooting 27/60 from the floor and 11/22 from 3. The 3-point line was the team’s biggest downfall for the second straight game, and it’s imperative they get it fixed moving forward. 

Matthew Cleveland got his 7th straight double-double, getting the 10th rebound in the very last minutes, to go with his 10 points and he played all 40 minutes, which says more about the depth behind him than anything. FSU needs Baba Miller back and in shape just to give Cleveland some breaks. Even if this game wasn’t his best, getting him some rest would help. 

The first matchup against Notre Dame, they were able to settle down defensively after a hot shooting start in the game. They did a great job defending against Nate Laszewski and Dane Goodwin, but need to do a better job containing JJ Starling off the dribble in this one. Miller, if he plays, should match up really well with Laszewski, so I’m honestly not as concerned as I normally would be. 

Injury Report

Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with an ACL injury.

Cam’Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury. 

Baba Miller missed last game with tonsillitis, I imagine he’ll try to go in this one. 

Projected Starters

Notre Dame

G: JJ Starling

G: Trey Wertz

G: Dane Goodwin

G: Cormac Ryan

F: Nate Laszewski

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Caleb Mills

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Matthew Cleveland

F: Cameron Corhen

Keys to the Game

Contain the Dribble/3PT Defense

FSU’s defense has had a really hard time containing the dribble recently which is leading to open kick-out 3s. According to Coach Hamilton, they allowed 50 paint touches against Wake Forest, which led them to shooting 14/26 from 3. Virginia wasn’t far behind, going 11/22 from 3, and a lot of those were set up on drives from Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman. The main issue is point of attack, if FSU can contain the dribble drives, it’ll help the rest of the defense. 

Offensive Consistency

FSU’s offense has been all over the place. Against Wake they shot the ball well but really struggled with turnovers, coughing it up 17 times. Against Virginia, nothing was really working well. Caleb Mills and Darin Green Jr were a combined 7/27 from the floor, but at least they kept the turnovers down. FSU really needs to find some consistent offense against a Notre Dame team that can allow some big scores. 

Dane Goodwin

Goodwin had just 2 points in the first matchup between these two teams, and I can imagine he’s going to want to make up for it in this game. Since that first game against FSU, he’s been averaging 14.3 PPG on 50.7/37.5/77.8 shooting splits. Hard to imagine he’ll have a game like he did in Tallahassee again. 

Game Prediction

Notre Dame is favored by 5 points, with an over/under of 140.5.

Even if FSU won the first game between these two, their recent defense has given me no hope they’ll be able to contain a strong shooting Notre Dame team. Have a feeling this ends up like the Wake Forest game

Notre Dame 78 FSU 70

READ MORE: Four-star quarterback Luke Kromenhoek ready to step up as a leader of Florida State's 2024 class

Stick with NoleGameday for more coverage of Florida State football throughout the season

Follow NoleGameday on Twitter and Facebook