Game Preview: Florida State at Virginia

The 'Noles are getting close to ending out their regular season schedule.

At 14-13, FSU has a chance to finish with their first losing season since the 04/05 season, when the team went 12-19. There were a couple of close calls that this team will be looking to replicate, like the 14/15 team that finished 17-16, but they have a couple of tough games to finish the season off, starting with UVA. 

This isn't the same caliber of Virginia team that we've seen in years past; scoring has been pretty hard to come by in some games, but they're still moving at the same slow pace. They had a little 4-game winning streak that included a win in Cameron Indoor, but have lost two of their last three. Tony Bennett is always going to have these guys ready to play. 

FSU owns the all-time series 27-26, and have won 3 of the last 4. Last year's 81-60 win over UVA was FSU's highest-scoring outing against UVA since 2006. 

This game will be at 4 pm on ESPN2, live from the John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, VA.

READ MORE: Two current Seminoles switching positions this spring

Virginia Cavaliers (17-11, 11-7) Breakdown

UVA is still kind of what you expect them to be: slow, a roster that's top-heavy, and try to make life tough on defense. The defense hasn't been as strong as in year's past, especially defending the 3. Their current 3pt% defense of 34.6% is the worst since 2011. When this defense was at its best in the 2017-2020 range, their average hovered around the 30% mark. It's the same with their 2-point defense, really. 47.8% allowed is also the worst since 2011, though it's still above average. 

They still play their pack-line defense, and still, run a heavy dose of mover-blocker offense. No matter the talent, Tony Bennett is going to stick to his guns. Their biggest thing is the inexperience down low, as bigs Francisco Caffaro and Kadin Shedrick haven't quite picked up the nuances of what it takes to an elite Virginia big men like Jay Huff and Jack Salt could do. 

This team is led in scoring by Jayden Gardner, an East Carolina transfer who was one of the best players in the portal last offseason. He's been superb as an energy player and as a defender, posting really strong rebounding numbers, and will likely be a handful for John Butler, Wyatt Wilkes, and Cam'Ron Fletcher. He's not much of a 3-point threat, taking less than 1 attempt per game from deep. 

Armaan Franklin comes in from Indiana and has been up and down. He gives them a needed scoring punch, but he can be wildly inefficient sometimes, as his 25.4% on 5.1 attempts from deep will indicate. He's still someone you have to respect, as he was a 42% shooter his second season at Indiana.

READ MORE: Two current Seminoles switching positions this spring

While Kihei Clark isn't the scoring leader, he's still the engine that makes this team run. He's shooting a career-best 37.9% from 3 (best on the team), which is a huge development for his game. Teams in the past were often happy to let him shoot, but they can't really do that anymore. His turnover rate of 21.2% is likely a little higher than they would prefer, but he's an incredibly quick and smart player that knows how to get to his spots. I'd prefer guys like Tanor Ngom and Harrison Prieto to not switch out onto him in this game. 

Reece Beekman is a phenomenal on-ball defender, and his shooting stroke is slowly but surely coming around. He's one of those guys that you're fine if he's the one taking a lot of shots. 

The bigs of Caffaro and Shedrick have had their struggles this season, but they're getting there. Caffaro is a little bigger at 7'1", and is the better rebounder, especially on the offensive end, while Shedrick is a much better-shot blocker. 

Those are the major contributors for this team. Outside of these 6, no one else plays a whole lot. Kody Stattman may play about 10 minutes, and he's a solid shooter himself,  but other than that, it's a very limited bench. 

Florida State Seminoles (14-13, 8-9) Breakdown

FSU really struggled on the road against Boston College, something I wasn't too terribly surprised by. They'd lost their last two games at BC, so if better teams in the past couldn't do it, I was really expecting this team to perform well. Thought they might have rallied around after the double-technical at the end of the first half, but the offense just never came. As I kind of expected, this group of players is having a really hard time scoring the basketball. With no Caleb Mills, Anthony Polite, or Malik Osborne, they don't have a ton of natural scoring, especially if Matthew Cleveland goes cold. 

The coaching staff knows how to beat Virginia. They were the last team to beat them before UVA went on to win the championship in 2019, they raced them out of the building last season, and got a tight win at home in 2020. The question is whether or not this group of players can execute the game plan. 

Part of that game plan is how they attack the heavy hedges of the pack line defense. In the past, some FSU guards directly attack it, but I don't think it's always the best course of action. I prefer them to skip pass out of it because then you get the defense on their heels, and it's a little easier to attack the paint that way. It can also lead to open 3s, since usually, the far corner man comes in to help on the roll man. 

The defense of the 'Noles is going to have to stay patient as Virginia goes through their mover-blocker offense. It's a very inexperienced team, and they may try to gamble a little bit, but the more they stick to their guns and stay patient, the more success they'll have. 

RayQuan Evans and Jalen Warley are going to have to be really strong with the basketball as they try and drive into gaps. Virginia is quick to reach in with two hands and try to rip the ball out, so it's going to be a great test for the young freshman in Warley. 

Injury Report

RayQuan Evans has been practicing all week according to Coach Hamilton, so he should be playing in this one. 

Caleb Mills has not practiced this week with his ankle injury. I don't think he'll play, but we'll see what happens. 

Anthony Polite is likely still out with his wrist injury. 

Naheem McLeod and Malik Osborne are out for the season. 

Projected Starters

Virginia

G: Kihei Clark

G: Reece Beekman

G: Armaan Frankin

F: Jayden Gardner

C: Francisco Caffaro

Florida State

G: RayQuan Evans

G: Matthew Cleveland

G: Wyatt Wilkes

F: John Butler

C: Tanor Ngom

Keys to the Game

Turn Virginia Over

Because Virginia doesn't have a ton of possessions in their games, the more you can turn them over, the more it really matters. 10 turnovers in a 60 possession game is a lot of chances for shots taken away, and it's a big reason why they've lost 9 games when they turn it over on 16% of possessions or more. They're not the most efficient team from the floor already, shooting around 45.3% from the floor, so getting them to turn it over just makes things more complicated. 

Hit the 3

This is likely going to be a struggle. FSU has really not hit the 3 well all season, and one of the best ways to beat the pack-line defense is to shoot over it. They won't step out too far beyond the 3-point line on defense, but they'll have high hands-on everything. UVA is just 3-8 when their opposition shoots 36% from 3 or better, so find a way to generate open looks. Something I'll be watching for is FSU bigs slipping on pick and rolls and the ball-handler hits the skip pass. 

Contain Kihei Clark

Clark has had some moments against FSU in the past where he'd switch onto a big on just absolutely cook them. Get to the rack, stop and pop, draw the help and kick out for 3... Even last year, in a game Virginia lost by 21, he finished 5/7 from the floor. He has to have a 2/8 shooting kind of game for FSU to have a good chance. 

Game Prediction

Virginia sits as 7.5-point favorites with an over/under of 127.5. 

This is going to be an incredibly slow-paced game, something FSU just came off of against Boston College. They've had almost a week to get healthier and some rest though, so hopefully they come to play. It's just a tough matchup for a team that hasn't shot the 3 well this season. 

Virginia 60-55

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