Game Preview: Florida State at Virginia Tech
It's the last day of the regular season, folks. We've made it. And instead of watching any of the incredible games today like Kansas/Texas, TCU/Oklahoma, Tennessee/Auburn, Pitt/Miami, or Arizona/UCLA, we're focusing ourselves on Florida State and Virginia Tech. Spoiler warning, I'm not expecting much. The winner of this game will have the 11 seed in the ACC Tournament, loser gets the 12 seed. This actually does mean something, since the 12 seed has to play 13 seed Georgia Tech, who has won 5 of their last 7 games.
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This game will be at 4 pm on ESPN2, live from the Cassell Coliseum in Blacksburg, Virginia.
Virginia Tech Hokies Breakdown
Let's keep this simple: Virginia Tech can shoot the basketball. They're not quite as efficient as they were last year, when they were top-5 nationally at 39.2% from deep, but are still shooting a very strong 35.6% from deep. I don't think they have another 18/25 performance in them as they did in Tallahassee last season, but I guess we'll find out; it's not like FSU's 3-point defense has been inspiring this season either.
Virginia Tech likes to play inside-out with a play-making big. Grant Basille is no Keve Aluma, but he's doing a good impression with 16.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.8 APG, and 1.3 BPG. He's a little undersized at 6-foot-9, but that should hopefully feed into FSU's "scheme" as long as the guards are physical with him, and he's more than capable of shooting from anywhere on the floor with his 39.5% from 3 on 5 attempts per game.
Justyn Mutts is leading the team in rebounds, steals, and assists despite playing power forward. He's just a super versatile player that does whatever is required of him, and is capable enough at 35.1% from 3. I'm expecting him to be on Matt Cleveland for most of the game.
Hunter Cattoor is as lethal of a 3-point shooter as the ACC has to offer at 42.4% on 6 attempts per game. I'm honestly surprised he doesn't shoot it more, but he's had games this season where he's 6/10 from 3 (he's done it twice this season). It wouldn't surprise me at all if he's like 5/7 from deep in this game with the way FSU leaves shooters open.
Sean Padulla is the second leading scorer at 15.1 PPG and can get it done in a variety of ways. Can shoot from 3, get to the free throw line, and is making 48% of his 2s. He's more of a scorer than a passer, but is a very good player overall.
Losing Darrius Maddox for the season is a big blow to a team that's not very deep. MJ Collins will play most of the game, as will Rodney Rice who they just got back from injury. Lynn Kidd will play minutes as a bigger 5. Otherwise, it's just those guys. They do a great job of taking care of the basketball, and as good as they are from 3, they're even better inside the arc. If FSU overhelps, this team will carve them up.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown
It was interesting to see Coach Hamilton talk about his plan for the offseason and to get 3-4 transfers before the season is even over, but at least they're aware of what the roster's issues are. I'm curious to see who they go after this offseason, I've already started looking into some productive players on lower levels to see who might be a good fit. A couple of names I'm enjoying watching so far: BJ Mack (Wofford), Dillon Jones (Weber State), Isaiah Crawford (Louisiana Tech), CJ Fulton (Lafayette). Not at all saying they're even expected to enter the transfer portal, just some guys that I think might fit what FSU wants to do and I'm enjoying watching their games.
FSU would like to win today to get the 11 seed in the ACC Tournament. They're more likely to beat either Notre Dame or Louisville again than they are Georgia Tech, who has played good basketball as of late. The goal is always to win, and we just want FSU to have their best chance at winning in the ACC Tournament, even if it's going to be slim to none either way.
I'm curious to see how energized the team is today. Is this going to be a game where they come out flat, ready to get the season over with? Or are they going to come out with something to prove, wanting to have one more good mark on the season? My guess is the former but we'll see.
Injury Report
Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with an ACL injury.
Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.
Jeremiah Bembry is sitting out the season to redshirt.
For Virginia Tech, Darius Maddox is expected to miss the rest of the season for "personal reasons."
Projected Starters
Virginia Tech
G: Sean Padulla
G: Hunter Cattoor
G: MJ Collins
F: Justyn Mutts
F: Grant Basile
Florida State
G: Jalen Warley
G: Caleb Mills
G: Darin Green Jr
F: Matthew Cleveland
F: Cameron Corhen
Keys to the Game
3-Point Defense
Virginia Tech is shooting 35.6% from 3 as a team this year, but are 11-4 in games where they shoot over that percentage in a game, and just 6-9 in games shooting less than that. If you let them get hot, they will win this game.
Fast Start
FSU has gotten off to notoriously bad starts in ACC play, having to come from behind in a lot of games recently. Just once, I'd like to see them get off to a fast start that paces them for the rest of the game.
Hit Your Shots
Virginia Tech is a very average defense, mostly because they don't possess a ton of physicality. FSU is going to have chances at open looks, it just comes down to whether or not FSU will be focused enough to hit them.
Game Prediction
Virginia Tech is favored by 10 points, with an over/under of 149.5.
I was a little taken aback by the spread, but it makes sense. This is a very good 3-point shooting team against a very bad 3-point shooting defense. Hokies probably roll, even if we'd like FSU to win this one.
VT 81 FSU 74
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