Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles vs. Central Michigan Chippewas

The Seminoles have an opportunity to start 2-0 for the first time since 2020-21.

Austin Veazey | Nov 13, 2023

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Florida State started the season in a resounding fashion, beating Kennesaw State by 27 Friday night, showing early signs of a much-improved defense and stretches of good offense. Now they'll be playing a Central Michigan team that is already 0-2 with a 30-point loss to Oklahoma and a 10-point home loss to Louisiana-Monroe. This is a great chance to start off 2-0, something FSU hasn't done since the 2020-21 season.

This is the first game as a part of the Sunshine Slam event, despite it being a home game. The rest of the tournament will be November 21-22, with Florida State playing UNLV in the first round, and will play the result of the Richmond/Colorado game.

It's a 7 pm tip on a Monday night for Florida State, having to compete with Monday Night Football, and will be in the Donald L. Tucker Center on ESPN+/ACCNX.

Central Michigan Chippewas Breakdown (0-2)

The Chippewas are in their third season under head coach Tony Barbee, who hasn't seen too much success with a record of just 17-46 so far. It's his third stop as a head coach, leading UTEP to an NCAA Tournament appearance in 2010, before going 49-75 in four seasons at Auburn, never having a record better than .500, with the lowest winning percentage ever for an Auburn coach with more than two seasons at the helm. After being let go by Auburn, he spent six seasons as an assistant at Kentucky, where they started 38-0 in the 2014-15 season.

They lost 3 of their top 4 PPG scorers to the transfer portal, with Jesse Zarzuela (16.3 PPG) going to Oregon, Kevin "Boopie" Miller (18.5 PPG in four games, was 13.1 PPG the year before) going to Wake Forest, and Reggie Bass (12.4 PPG) transferring to Kent State. They're still struggling to find production out of that, only bringing in two transfers themselves and a lot of recruits.

Brian Taylor, who led the team in total points last season, is off to a slow start this year, averaging just 5 PPG through two games while shooting 2/11 from the floor on the season. He's rebounding at a high level, with 9 rebounds in each game,

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (1-0)

Injury Report

There is still no update on a waiver from the NCAA for Florida State's Primo Spears.

Jaylan Gainey is still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered before the start of the 2022-23 season but should be back in about a month.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Jamir Watkins

F: Baba Miller

C: Cameron Corhen

Central Michigan

G: Anthony Pritchard

G: Brian Taylor

G: Cayden Vasko

G: Aidan Rubio

F: Markus Harding

Keys to the Game

Weather An Early Storm

Despite the scores at the end of the games, Central Michigan has started games off well. Against Oklahoma, CMU held a 12-10 lead with 13:31 left in the first half, but five minutes later, OU was on a 13-0 run and blew the game open from there. It was a similar story against ULM, as the Chippewas started hot, up 12-4, before ULM ended up with a 38-31 halftime lead.

Because of the experience they have in the starting lineup, it allows them to be competitive early, but the bench is largely a bunch of players who have never played Division 1 college basketball, and it shows.

Ball Pressure

Central Michigan has really struggled with turnovers in the first two games: 17 against Oklahoma and 19 against ULM, and Oklahoma was doing it with softer pressures than FSU will show. Their 25.8% turnover rate is 337th nationally early on this season.

Florida State will be in the grills of Central Michigan's ball handlers, forcing them to give the ball up early and often. I wouldn't be surprised if the 'Noles end up with 10-12 steals in this game, but the goal should once again be a turnover rate above 20-22%.

Ball pressure will also help with the defensive rebounding. The harder FSU can make it for Central Michigan to get up quality shots, the less likely they are to allow second-chance points.

3-Point Defense

While Central Michigan hasn't been making a lot of 3s early, they have been taking a lot of them: 21 3PA against Oklahoma and 28 against ULM. They only made 4 against Oklahoma, but did make 10 against ULM. This is another instance where ball pressure is a big factor; force them into rushed shots like Oklahoma did and the shooting isn't nearly as clean.

Florida State did a great job Friday night defending the 3 and forcing shots out of the opposing offense's normal timing. They'll need a similar performance tonight to go 2-0.

Game Prediction

Florida State opened as favorites by 21.5 points with a projected total of 151.5.

I'm a little more confident in Florida State's defense than I was Friday morning, and Central Michigan's offense doesn't have anything to really scare you. As long as FSU's offense finds a rhythm and they do a good job defending the 3, this should be a fairly large margin of victory for the 'Noles.

Florida State 83 - Central Michigan 65

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Published Nov 13, 2023