Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles vs Georgia Bulldogs

The Seminoles and Bulldogs will match up on the hardwood for the first time since 1981.

It's the first year of the ACC/SEC Challenge, taking the place of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. So instead of Florida State playing Indiana or Purdue for the sixth year in a row, we get a matchup with an old friend in Mike White's Georgia Bulldogs. After not looking competitive against Florida about two weeks ago, Florida State will be ready to stick it to a different SEC team. 

Obviously, Florida State has a lot of history against Mike White, the former coach of the Florida Gators, who is 1-6 against the Seminoles all time. Leonard Hamilton historically knows how to coach against him, and it doesn't look like White's system has changed all that much. For two teams that are fairly close geographically, this is the first time these two have played against each other since 1981. Hugh Durham, who coached both teams to their only Final Four appearance (1972 for FSU, 1983 for Georgia), will be in attendance. 

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It's a late-night tip, as this game will be at 9:15 EST on the ACC Network, live from the Donald L Tucker Civic Center in Tallahassee, Florida. 

Georgia Bulldogs Breakdown (3-3)

Georgia is in their second season under coach Mike White, who was on a hot seat at Florida and decided to bolt for Georgia before he could be fired. They're coming off of a 16-16 season and have a lot of new pieces; of their 13-man roster, only four of them were on this team last season, and you can tell. There's a lot of dysfunction, a lot of still getting used to a system caused by a lack of spacing, and a lot of poor ball movement. 

Coach White is what he is at this point in his career: a great floor raiser, not a great ceiling raiser. He can turn around programs to being solid again, but anything more than that can be hard for him. This roster has pieces, but they're so disjointed that it's hard to buy into them making too much noise this season. Georgia has beaten the teams they're supposed to beat (Wake Forest, Winthrop, and North Carolina Central) and lost to the teams they're supposed to lose to (Oregon, Providence, and Miami). All of those wins were much closer than they needed to be though. 

It starts with ball movement; no one on the team is averaging more than 2.7 assists per game, and as a team, they're averaging 11.0 assists per game to 11.8 turnovers per game. Silas Demary Jr had 7 assists against Miami, Justin Hill has had two games with 4 assists, and there have been no other instances of a player having more than 3 assists in a game. Guard Noah Thomasson is an incredible scorer occasionally, but doesn't really spread the wealth and it costs the team. His 12.5 shot attempts per game far outpace the rest of the team, and he leads the team in scoring at 14.3 PPG. 

Spacing and shooting have come at a premium so far this season, as their starting lineup has just two shooters: Jabri Abdur-Rahim (son of former NBA All-Star Shareef Abdur-Rahim) and Noah Thomasson. Both players are shooting 37% from deep on about 6 attempts per game but get there in totally different ways. Thomasson is a one-on-one scorer, while Abdur-Rahim is better in the catch-and-shoot opportunities. They do clear the team in scoring, as Abdur-Rahim's 13.3 PPG means he and Thomasson are combining for 39% of the entire team's scoring production. Off the bench, Justin Hill is shooting at 36.8% from deep, but only shooting it a couple of times per game. Blue Cain clearly wants to be a shooter as a freshman with 5 attempts from deep per game but is making them at just a 27.6% clip. Abdur-Rahim and Thomasson combine for 4.5 made 3s per game, and the rest of the team combine for 3.2. As a team, they haven't had any game above 33.3% from 3 so far this season. 

Georgia has an interesting big-man rotation of USF transfer Russel Tchewa, VCU Transfer Jalen DeLoach (brother of Florida State linebacker Kalen DeLoach), and holdover Frank Anselem. They don't really run through these guys offensively, combining for about ten shot attempts per game and 13.5 PPG. You do have to worry about them on the offensive glass, especially if DeLoach starts like he did last game, as Coach White wanted to get a little bigger. 

Part of the reason for DeLoach getting the starting nod last game is due to the struggles of Illinois transfer RJ Melendez. He's always struggled as a scorer and is best used as a big wing who can do a lot of things good but nothing great, but this team needs scoring and elite rebounding; Melendez hasn't been able to provide that. I've personally never been the biggest fan of his game. 

The last player to note is freshman Silas Demary Jr, a 4-star prospect from Charlotte. He's great defensively at 2 steals per game and is learning to be a passer on a team that doesn't like to pass but isn't much of a scorer. He's only taking 6 shots per game and is shooting 37% from the floor. Demary is third on the team in free throw attempts though. 

It's a man defense for Georgia, and they've been doing a good job eliminating the 3s from opposing teams, allowing teams to shoot just 28.7% behind the arc. It's not often you see a team shooting below 30% from 3 and allowing teams to shoot less than 30% (just 24 teams nationally, UGA is the only team in the SEC). They don't force a lot of turnovers, but you can get offensive rebounds on them. To me, they're an average to above-average defensive team and a decently below-average offensive team.  

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (4-1)

Well would you look at that, Florida State is receiving AP Top 25 votes again. This is basically the 35th-ranked team in the country right now. 

It was an incredible win for Florida State last week in the Sunshine Slam, getting quality wins over UNLV and especially Colorado, vaulting the 'Noles all the way as high as 68th in KenPom, though some other teams have surpassed them in the week since they've played. There was a lot to like in both games though. 

First off, an aggressive Jalen Warley is a good Jalen Warley. He's been aggressive on the defensive end all season, already with 14 steals in five games, on pace for around 87 steals (not including any postseason games. Record is Sam Cassell's 97 in 1992-93). What we were waiting on was him being aggressive on the offensive end, and we finally saw it against Colorado. Below is every field goal he made last Tuesday, as well as a couple of attempts that led to free throws.

Him being this aggressive and willing to drive to the rim was a game-changer for the Seminoles. They don't win the game without it. Part of it may be the new block/charge rules so he doesn't have to worry as much about being overly aggressive and getting a charge call from a defender sliding in late, but he simply hasn't been doing this over his career up until now. Florida State is a much, much different team with him playing this way. 

There was a little bit of chatter about Florida State's last play in regulation, one that ended in a Jamir Watkins turnover as he drove baseline, so let's take a look at it. 

It starts with an Iverson cut, something Florida State doesn't run too often, with Watkins cutting across the high post with two off-ball screens from the bigs on the elbows, with the second (Baba Miller) coming to give Watkins an on-ball screen as he catches the ball. Watkins has the option to take the screen and get downhill or turn it down and attack the baseline if it's open, but they'd probably prefer him to take the screen and play from there. Look at the action on the backside, if Watkins fakes the turndown and comes back to the top, Darin Green Jr was going to be wide open at the top of the key. DGJ's defender isn't even looking at him, and Warley is coming with a pin-down screen too. Even if he takes the turndown and swings it right back outside to Baba Miller, it's a better result than what happened. 

You have to get a shot up in these situations, but luckily it didn't cost FSU in the end. They get out with a win and get to learn from that going forward. 

Injury Report

Primo Spears is still awaiting word from the NCAA if he's eligible or not. 

Jaylan Gainey is recovering from an ACL injury last year, and the staff is hoping he'll be good to go either in this game or on Saturday against North Carolina. 

Cam Corhen hurt his toe in the first half against Colorado, and didn't play in the second half. It hasn't been clarified if he'll be ready or not, but I can't imagine it being too serious, since he wasn't in a boot or on crutches after the game. As of now, I'm not expecting him to play. 

For Georgia, RJ Sunahara is more than likely out with a knee injury. As of their last game, he still wasn't practicing with the team. 

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Jamir Watkins

F: Baba Miller

F: De'Ante Green

Georgia

G: Noah Thomasson

G: Silas Demarry Jr

G: Jabri Abdur-Rahim

F: Jalen DeLoach OR G: RJ Melendez

C: Russel Tchewa 

Keys to the Game

Wall Up The Interior

Florida State figured some things out defensively against Colorado on how they want to defend the interior, but Colorado still missed some inside shots they should've made. If Georgia is finding success offensively, it comes from getting into the paint. In the three games they've lost this year, they're shooting just 39.8% on 2s compared to 52.4% in wins. Against Wake Forest, they had 45 2-point attempts and made 25. Can't let that happen in this game. 

The Colorado game was FSU's best effort on the interior this season, allowing just 38.5% on 2-point attempts. If it's close to that number in this game, FSU probably wins somewhat easily. 

Ball Movement

The way to beat Florida State is with ball movement. Florida had 17 assists on 30 made shots, a big reason why they were in that game, for an assist rate of 56.7%, and Colorado wasn't far behind at 56%, a big reason why that game went to overtime. Georgia's best assist against high-major competition was 54.5% against Miami, a game they lost by double digits because they shot 36.7% from the floor and had 15 turnovers. They're just simply not built to win games like that, and they haven't faced the type of defensive ball pressure that they'll see against Florida State. 

Meanwhile, Florida State has been at their best when they're moving the ball around and getting everybody involved. Against Florida, they had just 9 assists on 24 made baskets. They aren't capable of winning games like that either. 

Will Either Team Be Able to Make Threes?

These have been two impressive 3-point defenses to start the season, as Georgia is allowing teams to shoot 28.7% from 3 while FSU has been holding teams to an other-worldly 23.9% early on. The 'Noles have been better shooting from distance at 34.5% to UGA's 29.9%, but each team has a couple of talented shooters. 

I think I trust FSU more to be able to make some threes with Darin Green Jr, who is always willing to fire it up. Jabri Abdur-Rahim and Noah Thomasson are more than capable, but I don't know if they'll be consistent enough in this matchup. 

Game Prediction

Florida State opened as favorites by 7.5 points, with a projected total of 150.5. Line has since moved to FSU -9.5 with over/under of 153.5. 

I think this is a really bad matchup for Georgia, and I struggle to see a way they win this game. Not saying it can't happen, it's college basketball, and anything can happen, but it would take Georgia getting really hot from 3 and moving the ball around a lot, and they just haven't been that kind of team. There's a small chance they even get boat-raced in this, but I'd be crazy to predict that. Florida State should win this. Because of the uncertainty of Corhen's status, I docked FSU a few points. 

Florida State 75 - Georgia 69

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