Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 18 Colorado Buffaloes

Two games in two days as the Seminoles shoot their shot to win the Sunshine Slam Tournament.

It's the championship game for the Sunshine Slam Tournament and it's the expected matchup, as Florida State gets set to take on the 18th-ranked Colorado Buffaloes. Some fans may recognize this as a familiar matchup, as the two teams played in the Round of 32 in the 2021 NCAA Tournament, a game in which the Seminoles came away with a resounding 71-53 victory to move onto the Sweet 16. 

BREAKING: Seminoles Announce Starting Quarterback Jordan Travis Is Out For Year Due To Injury

Much has changed since the two teams last played. Colorado is looking like a contender for the best team in the final year of the PAC-12, while Florida State is coming off of back-to-back sluggish seasons and is looking to work its way back into contention in the ACC. 

This game will be at 4 p.m. EST on the CBS Sports Network, live from the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida. 

No. 18 Colorado Buffaloes Breakdown (4-0)

Our old friends in Colorado are still led by Tad Boyle, who is in his 14th season in Boulder, and they are on the verge of something special. They were voted 5th in the preseason PAC-12 polls, but they're the second highest-rated team in the league on KenPom behind Arizona. 

They've started the season off strong, with dominant victories over Towson, Grambling State, and Milwaukee, before Richmond pushed them to their limits yesterday. Florida State will likely be the best team they play until Miami in December, so they're going to find some things out about their squad. 

The Buffaloes have a normally very efficient offense, shooting 48% from 3 (doing a good job of picking and choosing shots despite starting three non-shooters), 54.9% on 2-point shots, and 77.8% from the free throw line as a team. Where they can be kind of susceptible is protecting the basketball, with a turnover rate north of 20% against Towson and right on the edge of it against Richmond. The only team even kind of close to comparable for FSU's level of ball pressure would be Richmond, but they don't do as good of a job creating turnovers as the 'Noles do, and it's something to watch out for. 

What this team does well is dominating the assist rate (assists per made field goal) on both sides of the ball. As of the time of this writing, they have the 3rd highest offensive assist rate at an absurd 70.3%, and the 6th lowest defensive assist rate at a just as absurd 31.1%. In other words, they do a great job of moving the ball on offense and keep teams from moving the ball on defense. It's a very unique challenge for FSU. Every major rotation player averages at least 2 assists per game. 

Leading the way is KJ Simpson, who has been simply amazing to start this season, averaging 20 PPG while shooting 69.2% on 2s, 50% on 3s (shooting 4 per game), and 90.9% from the free throw line. Despite that insane scoring, he's also top-40 amongst all players nationally in assist rate. Throw in an average of 2 steals and 4 rebounds per game, and you have a really tough challenge ahead of you. He's so crafty at getting to the basket and finishing around the rim. A few times yesterday I watched him, I was simply amazed at his shotmaking close to the rim. Whoever is guarding him at any point has to do their best to keep him out of the paint. He's historically been a little loose with the basketball, averaging about 2.5 turnovers per game in his first two seasons. He'd been off to a much better start this season, with just 2 turnovers in his first 3 games, but coughed it up 3 times against Richmond. I'm expecting FSU to ramp up the pressure on him. 

Next up is Tristan Da Silva, a legitimate NBA Prospect at 6'9", 220 pounds, and shot-making all over the court. He's averaging 16.5 PPG, 5 RPG, and 2.5 APG while shooting 68.2% on 2s and 52.6% on 3s (about 5 attempts per game). He hasn't done a great job of getting to the free throw line so far, with just 10 attempts on the season, but he may have his chances here against FSU. As a team, Colorado does a pretty solid job getting to the line, ranking 85th in free throw rate as a team, but only Simpson and J'Vonne Hadley make a concerted effort to get to the stripe. 

Speaking of Hadley, I'm not sure I've ever seen a player like him. Despite being a 2 or a 3, depending on the lineup, he does not shoot 3s with only 7 in his entire career, and 1 all of last season. Hadley's a fine defensive player, but not a pitbull like in a Tony Allen mold, and doesn't really get steals. He's just so, so good at getting to the basket and to the free throw line; currently in the top 60 in free throw rate. And he's making his free throws at an 82% clip so far. Florida State is going to have to find a way to wall him up without fouling. He also crashes the glass well for his size.

Cody Williams is a five-star freshman hailing out of Gilbert, Arizona (4th overall prospect in the 2023 recruiting class according to 247), and is the brother of Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams (J-Dub, the one that played at Santa Clara). They have very similar aspects to their game at this stage in their careers: struggling from 3, hyper-athletic, and an exceptional defender. He did a solid job of scoring in his first three games but had just 6 points on 3/7 shooting yesterday against Richmond. I have a feeling he'll struggle against FSU's length. 

The last starter is one of the most unique players in college basketball: the 6'11" and 265-pounder Eddie Lampkin Jr. I think 265 may be underselling things a little bit, he's a hefty, powerful player. Florida State really struggled with DJ Burns last season, who is 6'9", 275. We'll see if they've made any adjustments since playing NC State last year. As you can imagine, Lampkin is a very good offensive rebounder, currently in the top 75 in offensive rebound rate. There's no pushing him off his spot, so it's going to take a collective effort from FSU to rebound the basketball away from him. He struggled with being left open in the high post, as he couldn't knock down the shots, and it's a free game when he puts the ball on the floor. But he's a surprisingly good passer, and that makes their offense even more dangerous. I expect FSU will be content to let him operate from the high post as much as possible. 

Julian Hammond is a really great bench piece, averaging 10 points off of the bench, while shooting shooting more 3s than 2s and hitting them at a 50% clip. Their offense becomes really dangerous when Hammond, Simpson, and Da Silva are all on the floor together. 

Some other bench pieces you'll see are Luke O'Brien, who is a backup big that can stretch the floor and rebound well, while RJ Smith is a young freshman who redshirted last season and is still figuring out exactly what he is. Really, it's the collective of Simpson, Hadley, Williams, Da Silva, Lampkin, and Hammond you'll see making the biggest impacts if they stay fresh. 

The one thing working against them is energy conservation. Florida State is already a deeper team, and FSU had the early game, getting off the court around 7:30 Monday night, and most of their key players were in the 21-32 minute range (Darin Green Jr played 34) and played 9 guys major minutes. Meanwhile, Colorado didn't get off of the floor until after 10 pm, and only really played seven players. With the game being at 4 pm, it could work in FSU's favor. 

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (3-1)

It was a great win for Florida State yesterday, getting an 83-75 win over UNLV, a team that sits fairly similar in KenPom rankings. The 'Noles led the whole way, and even as the lead would build up to double digits and then shrink to just 5, FSU's win probability never dipped below 70% in the second half. They did a great job creating chaos, and creating good looks offensively, and they actually hit some shots, going 14/18 from the stripe, 32/51 (62.7%) from the floor, and 5/12 from 3. It likely won't be as easy going against Colorado. 

I'm fascinated to watch the Baba Miller vs. Tristan De Silva matchup. Miller wants to prove he's an NBA prospect, and De Silva is the first potential future NBA player he'll have been up against this season. And they both have similar frames. If Miller wants to prove he has something, it starts today against De Silva. 

Jamir Watkins has been so unbelievably good for Florida State to start this season. He's scored 19 points in two of the last three games, and has led the team in assists twice (is actually top-100 nationally in assist rate) while creating so much havoc defensively. I wish there was a better way to show how many turnovers he's creating with his activity, but it's extremely impressive. His being FSU's best player is not something anyone would've foreseen when he committed to Florida State in April. 

Florida State has to find a way to improve their interior defense. Not even Jaylan Gainey hopefully coming back soon can save it at this point. FSU is allowing teams to shoot 58% inside the arc, ranking in the 300s nationally. The worst it has ever been under Coach Hamilton is 51.2% all the way back in the 2006-07 season. The last couple of seasons have been around the 50% mark. And this year hasn't even been close to those marks. It starts with doing a better job at containing the dribble, where Florida State has struggled once again. Teams are just screening and passing to get the matchups they want and driving, and it's frustrating to watch at times. 

Injury Report

Primo Spears is awaiting news from the NCAA on his transfer waiver. 

Jaylan Gainey is still recovering from an ACL injury before last season. The staff is hoping he'll be back sometime next week. 

For Colorado, Javon Ruffin will miss the entire season due to an ongoing knee issue. 

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Jamir Watkins

F: Baba Miller

F: Cameron Corhen

Colorado

G: KJ Simpson

G: J'Vonne Hadley

F: Cody Williams

F: Tristan Da Silva

C: Eddie Lampkin Jr

Keys to the Game

Contain the Dribble

KJ Simpson and J'Vonne Hadley are so hard to contain, but FSU is going to have to find a way. And even if they do, Simpson's very likely to still make the shot over you. I like what Florida State did yesterday by face-guarding DJ Thomas with Jalen Warley, and I expect a similar game plan today. The only thing I would change is the off-ball switching early. Warley is a really good defender, and switching him off so early makes the early face-guarding kind of pointless. 

Outside of Simpson, guys like Cody Williams and Hadley aren't really outside threats and prefer to operate on the interior, and Tristan Da Silva is dangerous from anywhere. How FSU defends off the dribble is going to be paramount in getting stops. 

If they can contain the dribble, it'll help them with their fouling issue too. They're currently one of the worst teams in the country at allowed free throw rate, while Colorado has been one of the best at getting to the line. 

HEAVY Ball Pressure

If there's one place Colorado has been iffy, it's been with protecting the ball. They've been below average in turnover rate (18.6%) and opponent's steal rate (10.6%). And if there's one place where Florida State's defense has been excellent, it's been creating turnovers and getting steals, ranking in the top 20 of both categories nationally. Even though Simpson has been much better at protecting the ball so far this year, he did have three turnovers against Richmond yesterday and averaged around 2.5 in his first two seasons in college. 

For Florida State to give themselves a chance, they're going to have to force a turnover rate north of 20% and turn those into points. Because Colorado does a good job of forcing teams to isolate (more on this next), it may get ugly for FSU's offense unless they can create easy looks through turnovers. 

Heavy ball pressure also keeps Colorado from doing what they do best offensively, and that's spreading the ball around. They're currently top 5 nationally in assists per made field goal at an insane 70.3% rate. The more Florida State can get in those passing lanes, the harder it is for Colorado to make the easy pass. 

Move the Ball Efficiently

Colorado is so good at forcing teams to hit tough shots off the dribble and keeping the ball from moving side to side. As good as they are with their offensive assist rate, they're just as great defensively in this category too, allowing an assist rate of just 31.1%. 

Florida State's offense can only get consistent good looks when they're moving the ball around and getting everyone involved. When I was working with the team, they used to (and I imagine they still do) have someone track how many passes the team had in any given possession and in the game overall. The more FSU has to isolate, the worse it'll go for them in this one. 

Game Prediction

Colorado opened on DraftKings as favorites by 6.5 points, with a projected total of 156.5. 

I think this is a really bad matchup for Florida State, and KJ Simpson is so crafty at getting inside the paint. Colorado is already great at scoring in the paint, and FSU is historically bad at defending inside the arc. Baba Miller won't be able to tower over Tristan De Silva. If this was a normal game where both teams have days to rest and prepare, Colorado likely blows FSU out of the water. But because FSU already has a massive depth advantage, and they'll be getting a couple extra hours of rest between the games, this ends up being closer than it probably should. If the 'Noles find a way to win this game, I'll be extremely impressed. 

Colorado 79 - FSU 74

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