Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles vs. Winthrop Eagles

The Seminoles return to the hardwood for their second-to-last game prior to the new year.

Florida State finally ended its losing streak, picking up a win over North Florida, and will now be playing one of the better low-major teams in college basketball. Winthrop hasn't beaten any of the high major conference teams yet, but they've been close, and are likely licking their chops to play a Florida State team that hasn't been playing well. 

This is the third time these teams have played since the 2016-17 season, with FSU winning both previous results. Winthrop did make it closer than expected in 2019, with FSU winning by just 11. 

For those still interested in basketball, this game will be at 7 p.m. on ESPN+/ACCNX, live from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, FL. 

Winthrop Eagles Breakdown (8-5)

Winthrop is in their third season under head coach Mark Prosser, who came over to Winthrop following a stint at Western Carolina. FSU did play his Western Carolina team in the 2019-20 season; a much closer game than it was supposed to be, as the best FSU team we'll likely ever see just barely escaped with a 5-point victory. 

This is a team that really wants to get to the free throw. More than 25% of their points come from the stripe, which is top 10 nationally, and they're in the top 5 in both total free throws made and attempted. Winthrop's averaging close to 27 free throw attempts per game, something they could really exploit against Florida State. Besides that, they're a good 3-point shooting team, but only make about 8 per game, and are average inside the arc. They really just rely on getting to the line and getting offensive rebounds. Some of those rebounds are courtesy of Winthrop having more shots blocked on average than just about everybody, but they're still more than capable of getting those boards. 

Really the only thing I want to highlight defensively is teams are shooting 80% from the free throw line against them, an absurd number and something they really don't have any control over. They're one of just three teams where teams shoot 80% or better from the stripe. 

KJ Doucet is leading the team in scoring with 14.3 PPG and 3.8 RPG. He's a unique low major player, as someone that is built out at 6'7" and 230 pounds, but shoots 4.5 3s per game and makes them at a 44.1% clip. He also gets to the free throw line a healthy amount and is shooting 77.8% from the stripe. Just a really solid, fundamental basketball player who Florida State may have their hands full with. 

Kelton Talford lives on the interior, having only attempted 3 threes all season, but shoots 60% from the floor and has gotten to the free-throw line more than anyone else so far. He's second on the team in scoring and rebounding at 12.1 PPG and 4.2 RPG. 

Kason Harrison is one of the streakiest shooters I have ever seen; 48.4% from 3 his freshman season at Lamar to 24.5% his sophomore year, then he transfers to Winthrop and shoots 45.2% from 3 last year and is currently shooting 29.7%. Never seen anything like that. He has historically been better inside the arc, but is shooting a career-worst 41.8% on 2s this year. Either way, he's third on the team in scoring at 10.5 PPG, which would also be a career low. Good defender as well, averaging 1.5 steals per game. 

Alex Timmerman is a big man who comes off of the bench most games and goes to work: 10.2 PPG and 5.4 RPG (leads team in rebounding). He's a very good free throw shooter at 88.4%. You'd like him to be a better interior presence defensively, but he does a great job on the offensive end. 

Nick Johnson and Sin'Cere McMahon are both talented 3-point shooters, currently hitting 3s above 37.5%, and are close to averaging double-figure points. Johnson is the better all-around player, as someone who can get to the free throw line and snag steals, whereas McMahon is more of a pure shooter. 

You'll also see Chase Claxton, the younger brother of Brooklyn Nets forward Nic Claxton, getting some minutes and most likely even starting. He plays a lot like his brother, he just isn't as tall or as good. 

Doucet, Talford, Harrison, and Johnson all shoot between 4-5 free throws per game, with Timmerman not far behind. Doucet, Johnson, and McMahon are the main threats from deep. 

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (5-5)

It was good to see FSU get a win again; there was a time when I was starting to doubt they could ever get back on the right side of a result. Even if it was just UNF, any kind of a win in this economy is a good win. 

I was really impressed with what I saw out of the freshman, Taylor Bol Bowen, on Monday night: 9 points, 6 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal, and was a +16 in just 15 minutes. He even knocked down a 3, showcasing just a small amount of his massive potential on both ends of the floor. Some things still look awkward with just how long his frame is, but he has such great versatility at his size. 

Jaylan Gainey is also starting to get more and more comfortable within himself. His first appearance a few weeks ago against Georgia looked like a newborn giraffe, but he's starting to find his footing and is making an impact on the glass, with 10 total rebounds in his last two games. Those rebounding numbers have his total rebounding metrics right there at the top of the team, and he's only going to get better as he gets healthier. Gainey's going to have a big impact on this team in conference play. 

It's the last game before the holiday break for Florida State, which can bring some drowsy play occasionally. I'm hoping that the recent stretch of play will have these guys focused, but the last game before they're allowed to go home for a few days is almost always tough. 

Injury Report

Cam Corhen is doubtful to play with a small fracture in his toe. 

Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury. 

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Jamir Watkins

F: Baba Miller

F: De'Ante Green

Winthrop

G: Kasen Harrison

G: Nick Johnson

F: Kelton Talford

F: KJ Doucet

F: Chase Claxton

Keys to the Game

Defend Without Fouling

Winthrop is third in the country in made free throws, fourth in the country in attempted free throws, and top 10 nationally in percentage of points resulting from the free throw line. It's a long-winded way to say that they want to get to the free-throw line with consistency. 

Florida State is in the top 30 of the percentage of points given up from the free-throw line, and if teams were shooting better from the line than they have been, that number would look a lot worse. This has to be one of those games where FSU figures out how to defend without fouling, because otherwise, Winthrop's offensive metrics aren't that strong. 

Finish Possessions With a Rebound

Winthrop does have a solid offensive-rebounding team, grabbing about 1/3rd of all of their misses. Some of that is directly due to having so many of their shots blocked (only five teams nationally have a higher offensive block rate), but they still have five different players averaging at least one offensive rebound per game. 

Florida State has to dominate on the defensive glass, as this is not a game you can allow extra possessions in. Ideally, you'd like to keep Winthrop below 30% offensive rebound rate, as they're 0-4 in such games, compared to 8-1 with an OffReb Rate higher than 30%. 

Ball Control

It's odd, Florida State has generally taken care of the basketball better in losses than they do wins this season. Of their five lowest turnover rates this season, four have been losses, with the one win being Monday night against UNF. That being said, you'd like for the trend to continue of low turnovers. 

Winthrop is 6-0 in games where they force a turnover rate higher than 19%, and 2-5 in games forcing a turnover rate below 19% (those two wins were uncomfortably close against a couple of bad Coastal Carolina and Queens University teams). Florida State has been much better recently taking care of the ball, just need to turn it into productive offensive trips. 

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 8.5 points with an over/under of 149.5. 

I'm still going to be picking FSU to lose until they get a win that surprises me, although this game will likely be close anyways. Winthrop is really great at getting to the free throw line and getting offensive rebounds, something the 'Noles have been susceptible to this season. There's absolutely a world where FSU can drop a game like this if Winthrop shoots 30+ free throws, like they have four times this season, and FSU has allowed 30+ free throws attempts in four games as well.  

Winthrop 68 FSU 67

---

READ MORE: Florida State Signs Highest-Rated Quarterback Recruit Since Jameis Winston In Luke Kromenhoek

Stick with NoleGameday for more coverage of Florida State basketball throughout the 2023 season.

Follow NoleGameday on Twitter and Facebook