Game Preview: Florida State vs. Florida

The Seminoles are looking to avoid an 0-4 start for the first time since 1959.

Florida State is still looking for its first win of the season, and they’ll be looking for that win against their rival from Gainesville, the Florida Gators. The ‘Noles are looking to avoid their first 0-4 start to a season since 1959, where they played all road games against LSU, Florida, Auburn, and Loyola. 

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For those willing to subject themselves to this game, it will be at 8 pm on the ACC Network from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, FL.

Florida Gators Breakdown

The Gators got off to a strong start this season as they won their first game by 36 points against Stony Brook, but then followed it up with a back and forth game against Kennesaw State, but still won that one by 10. No one was really expecting what happened in their next game. Florida Atlantic went on a 28-6 run from the 14 minute mark to the 4:48 mark in the second half. While Florida fought valiantly in the last 4 minutes, they would still drop to FAU 76-74 at home, a less than glorious start for new head coach Todd Golden (former coach Mike White jetted for Georgia after the season). 

Despite the loss, Colin Castleton was superb, scoring 30 points and snagging 12 rebounds down low. He's an absolute unit down low and scores in a variety of ways, so it'll be interesting to see how Florida State decides to defend him. Are they going to throw multiple bodies at him every time he touches the ball, are they just going to let him bang down low and stunt at him to think he's got more people coming to help? We'll have to find out. For the season, he's averaging 25 points, almost 9 rebounds, and 4 blocks per game so far. 

If you crash in too much, Florida has a number of talented shooters that Castleton can kick out to, as Will Richard, Kowacie Reeves, and Kyle Lofton are above 50% from 3 through their first three games on 2+ attempts per game. Lofton is the main ball handler and distributor for this team, and is dishing out 4 assists per game while also averaging just 1 turnover per game. He's been solid and steady after playing for St Bonaventure, and has hit 4 of his 6 threes this season, though he is just a career 30.8% shooter from deep, will be interesting to see if he can keep that up. 

Reeves has been their highest volume shooter so far, shooting 50% from 3 on almost 5 attempts per game. He played just 15 minutes per game last season as a freshman, but played well down the stretch for the Gators in late February and March, and has picked up right where he left off. 

Richard has been a great addition from Belmont as someone that can rebound, knock down shots from all over the floor, while also staying out of foul trouble. He's their second highest scorer at 14.3 PPG. 

The other two players you need to know are Alex Fudge, an off-the-bench energizing post player, and old friend CJ Felder, who you may remember from Boston College. He didn't play much against FAU, just 14 minutes despite starting, but he's a long, versatile defender if he can put it all together. 

Florida really only plays about 6 players. Myreon Jones will play sporadically as a backup point guard and has done a great job dishing the ball and Riley Kugel may get 10sh minutes to spell some wing minutes, but that's really about it. They're playing a short rotation on purpose, unlike their dance partner in this matchup. 

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown

So far this season, Florida State keeps finding ways to lose games. Against Stetson, it was the 3-point defense, as they allowed the Hatters to shoot 14/35 from distance. Against UCF, it was rebounding, as they were outrebounded 52-22, and allowed a staggering 24 offensive rebounds. Then against Troy, FSU did it to themselves, turning the ball over 19 times and missing 10 free throws, though the biggest play of the game brought in flaws from the first two games as Troy grabbed an offensive rebound with under two minutes left then kicked it to the corner for a wide open dagger 3. 

There’s some pressure generating on Florida State to have a good performance. It’s one thing to lose to these openers, but if you go out and get dominated by Florida, people in the administration office are going to be upset and looking for answers. Having only 7 available players may not be the answer they’re looking for. They are rivals for a reason, and how you perform against a school you recruit against every year in every sport matters. 

If Florida State is going to contend in this one, Matthew Cleveland has to be better. The reigning ACC 6th man of the year has more fouls (10) than points (8) in the last two games, and it’s simply unacceptable for someone as talented as he is. Hopefully, this is just a two game slump and he’ll be right back in form, but I’m worried he’s already lost confidence. It’s one thing to not score because you’re taking the shots and missing them. It’s another when you’ve only attempted 8 total shots in two games. Florida State needs him to be smartly aggressive and good. He hasn’t been as of now. 

Caleb Mills and Jalen Warley also have to be better. Warley was fine, but unspectacular, in the first two games, but his 7 turnovers against Troy were a big reason they lost the game. Mills just simply hasn’t been aggressive enough. He’s trying to get everyone involved as the point guard, but at some point, he’s going to need to go out there and score 25 points in a game. 

I’d like to see them use Tom House more in this game, if only to help spell some minutes here and there.

Injury Report

Baba Miller is still suspended by the NCAA for travel violations.

Jaylan Gainey is out for the year with a torn ACL.

Jeremiah Bembry is out indefinitely with a back injury. 

De’Ante Green is out indefinitely as he recovers from an ACL injury in high school.

Naheem McLeod is out 6-8 weeks with an “Achilles issue.” 

Chandler Jackson is questionable with a thumb injury. 

Florida seems to be coming into this game fully healthy. 

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Caleb Mills

G: Darin Green Jr

G: Matthew Cleveland

G: Cam’Ron Fletcher

C: Cameron Corhen

Florida

G: Kyle Lofton

G: Will Richard

G: Kowacie Reeves

F: CJ Felder

C: Colin Castleton

Keys to the Game

Defense Against Colin Castleton

I’m not quite sure how FSU plans on handling Castleton in this game. Through 3 games he’s averaging an insane 25.3 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 4 BPG, and is even dishing out assists with 2.7 APG. With FSU’s top two big men options out in McLeod and Gainey, it’s going to come down to Cameron Corhen and whoever FSU switches onto Castleton to limit his impact. I’m worried they’re going to overreact to every post touch he gets and he’s going to be kicking out to wide open shooters. As a team, UF is shooting 41.5% from deep, though it’s just on 17 attempts per game. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re able to get 25 looks from deep in this one. 

Rebounds and Turnovers

Florida State has allowed 49 total offensive rebounds and turned it over 41 times through three games. Compare that to Florida which has grabbed 28 offensive rebounds, with three players grabbing 2 per game, and has forced 34 turnovers. It’s not areas they’re spectacular at, but they are more than capable, and they are seeing the scouting report just like everyone else. I’m expecting them to crash the glass heavy with Alex Fudge, Castleton, and CJ Felder, and it’ll be up to FSU to control some rebounds. 

Guard Play

Florida State’s guards have been… iffy through the first three games. Darin Green has been good for the most part, but Caleb Mills has been too inconsistent, Jalen Warley has been too hesitant, and Matthew Cleveland has been downright bad the last two games. This group of players has to be better in this game if they want a chance against Florida. UF is not a good team, but FSU has been one of the worst teams in the country to start the season and a lot of it is because of the guards. The 3 of Warley, Mills, and Cleveland are combining to shoot 43% from the floor and have 24 total assists to 22 turnovers. They really need to be better. 

Game Prediction

Florida is favored in this by 5.5 points, with an over/under of 147. 

Nothing would make me happier than to be wrong, but I think Castleton’s impact down low and his ability to kick out to open shooters is going to be too much to overcome. The Gators should win this one handily. 

Florida 78 FSU 65

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