Game Preview: Florida State vs. South Carolina

The Seminoles look to rebound against the Gamecocks.

It's been over a week since Florida State took the hardwood in the loss to Syracuse, but now they've had time to get their shots right and get reinvigorated for the rest of the season. This is an important game just because FSU doesn't have a lot of chances to get resume building wins with how the rest of the ACC looks this season, and though South Carolina isn't a particularly good team, it's at least a name. 

This game is one of four (not a tournament) in the No Room for Racism Classic in Rock Hill, SC, which is about 40 minutes from South Carolina's campus. So while this may be a "neutral site" game, by all means it's a road game. I'm not quite sure what to expect as far as a crowd, though I don't really think there will be one. 

FSU and South Carolina have a decent history, having played 30 games before. Florida State leads the all-time series 16-14.

Tip-off is at 12pm on ESPN2 from the Rock Hill Sports & Events Center. 

South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2) Breakdown

South Carolina isn't a particularly good team, but they crash the offensive glass hard, run out in transition, and block a lot of shots. Kind of sounds like Florida State in a way, except SC is even more inefficient shooting the ball, shooting just 41.5% from the floor and 30.5% from 3, and they run a much faster pace. If they were better at converting their offensive rebounds into second chance points, they'd be a much more dangerous team. Instead, they're a team that can lose to Coastal Carolina by 24. However, they did beat Georgetown, who just beat Syracuse, who of course just beat Florida State. By transitive property... 

Defensively, they force turnovers at a high rate, block a lot of shots, and don't allow many open 3s. It's a mostly man-to-man scheme, but they'll throw in a zone occasionally just to mix things up. They get lost on back screens and off-ball actions from time-to-time, but overall it's a sound defense that hasn't allowed anyone to score more than 80 points. 

Their three main scorers are Erik Stevenson, Jermaine Couisnard, and Keyshawn Bryant. Stevenson and Bryant are much better inside the arc, so it'll be interesting to see how they do against Florida State's length. Couisnard is one of the better outside shooters on the team, and about half of his shots come from distance. Stevenson has been somewhat of a journeyman throughout his career, having started at Wichita State before transferring to Washington and now ending up at South Carolina. His numbers have been pretty consistent no matter where he's been. With Bryant, you really have to watch him attacking the glass from the perimeter, he loves to create looks for himself. 

For their bigs, Wildens Leveque is your classic college big who can't shoot but dominates the glass. He's not much of a shot blocker (it's a team that blocks shot by committee), and if FSU can get him into foul trouble early, they can open up a lot of offense. Backup Josh Gray is ineffective offensively, but is at least a body. AJ Wilson will spend a lot of time at the 4, and brings great energy and hustle, averaging almost twice as many offensive rebounds as he does defensive. 

James Reese V is the best shooter on this team, shooting almost 40% from 3 on about 5 attempts per game. FSU will have to step out on him and Couisnard. Devin Carter is just a body, but his shooting splits are abysmal so far this season at 32.0/15.4/74.2. 

Team Stats PPG, RPG (ORBs, DRBs), APG, SPG, BPG, ToPG, FPG       FG%/3PT%/FT%

Stats For: 70.9, 41.1 (13.3, 27.9), 13.0, 8.4, 5.3, 15.5, 19.6                     41.5/30.5/66.9

Stats Against: 66.5, 36.4 (11.8, 24.6), 11.8, 9.6, 2.5, 16.3, 18.4             38.0/30.8/65.8

Player Stats

#10 Erik Stevenson 12.3, 3.9 (0.9, 3.0), 1.8, 1.8, 0.9, 1.4, 2.5               34.8/28.1/100.0

#5 Jermaine Couisnard 12.1, 3.3 (0.7, 2.6), 2.1, 1.1, 0.0, 3.9, 1.1         44.4/37.1/57.1

#15 Wildens Leveque 10.4, 6.8 (3.1, 3.6), 0.5, 1.0, 0.8, 0.6, 2.9           66.0/NA/56.7

#0 James Reese V 9.1, 2.5 (0.6, 1.9), 2.3, 1.5, 0.0, 1.4, 1.8                   38.9/39.5/100.0

#23 Devin Carter 7.1, 3.8 (0.9, 2.9), 2.0, 0.4, 0.4, 2.3, 1.8                     32.0/15.4/74.2

#24 Keyshawn Bryant 11.3, 5.0 (1.7, 3.3), 1.0, 1.0, 2.3, 2.0, 1.3             41.9/20.0/77.8

#12 AJ Wilson 4.8, 4.3 (2.8, 1.5), 0.8, 1.3, 1.3, 0.3, 2.8                          35.0/33.3/57.1

#1 Jacobi Wright 4.3, 1.9 (0.0, 1.9), 2.1, 0.4, 0.0, 1.4, 2.0                      35.1/25.0/44.4

#33 Josh Gray 3.4, 4.6 (1.5, 3.1), 0.8, 0.6, 0.8, 0.6, 2.0                         47.8/0.0/50.0

Florida State Seminoles (5-3, 0-1) Breakdown

I think I'm over the disgusting offensive performance that was that Syracuse game. It physically hurts going back and watching that film and watching shot after shot after shot clank off the rim. With over a week off from games, I'm sure there were plenty of late nights on the gun (self-rebounding machine that gets the ball and feeds it back out), lots of shooting drills in practice, and some mechanics tweaks to get guys right. There should never be another 4/30 from 3 from this team. 

The good news is it's still early in the season. Guys will continue to progress and develop, and hopefully some guys will get out of their shooting slumps. I don't expect Anthony Polite to shoot sub-26% from 3 for much of the rest of the year, but he has to get it turned around. 

One guy I'm watching for in this is John Butler, who is a native of Greenville, SC. A lot of guys always love to go to their home states and put up big games in front of friends and family. Sometimes they also put a little too much pressure on themselves, and it can cost them, so I'm looking forward to seeing what Butler can do in this one. 

Another thing Florida State has to get better at is forcing committed fouls from the other team. I get this hasn't shown much from the free throw line this season, but they need any points they can get. They're just really struggling to draw fouls, with teams only committing about 13.9 fouls per game. That means they're barely getting to the 1-and-1 bonus each half. They're just really not being aggressive enough in attacking and getting two feet in the paint. 

Injury Report

Tanor Ngom is expected to be out this game and for the next couple of weeks. 

Jermaine Couisnard has been battling an ankle injury, but it sounds like he's going to try and play Sunday against FSU. 

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: RayQuan Evans

G: Caleb Mills

G: Anthony Polite

F: John Butler

F: Malik Osborne

South Carolina

G: Erik Stevenson

G: Jermaine Couisnard

G: James Reese V

F: AJ Wilson

F: Wildens Leveque

Keys to the Game

Find a Way to Slow SC Down

South Carolina is top-50 in pace of play this season, so they want to get out and run. I think they're one of those teams where if you can slow them down, shut off the early quick hitters in sets, and force them to work for shots, it'll be a long game. As long as Florida State dictates the pace in this one, they should be fine, but if you let SC get out and run, get their early looks, there will be a lot of confused looks. 

Hit Your Shots

How many games are we going to have to talk about this? Basketball is an easy game when you can put the ball in the basket, but it's very difficult when you can't make the open ones. FSU as a team is shooting 32.7% from 3 and that somehow feels high. They've got to find a way to bring that number back up, and guys have to be making their shots; too much talent on this team to not make shots. 

Turnover Battle

South Carolina has done a great job this season of forcing turnovers, forcing a little over 16 turnovers per game. Florida State has done a decent job thus far of limiting turnovers, but this can't be one of those games where they get loose with their handle and SC is taking it the other way. When FSU has been struggling to score as much as they have, it really won't help if they're not even getting a shot up. 

Game Prediction

Florida State opened as 4.5-point favorites, with an over/under of 

I'm expecting this to be a motivated Florida State team that comes out and keeps South Carolina reigned in. 

FSU 75 SC 67