Game Preview: Florida State vs. Virginia

The Seminoles have a tough one in Tallahassee.

Florida State is getting their second matchup of the season against Virginia here in early January, will this one end up any differently than the first? There are plenty of signs pointing in both directions, so we'll break them down in this shorter-than-normal preview. With second matchups, I'll mainly talk about what happened in the first game, what has happened since, and what both teams can expect in this one. 

This game will be at 4 pm on ESPN2 live from the Donald L Tucker Civic Center in Tallahassee, FL. 

#13 Virginia Cavaliers Breakdown

Since beating Florida State, Virginia has dropped a couple of games to Miami, Houston, and Pittsburgh. So what happened in those games that caused them to lose? The Pitt game was an anomaly, as Virginia had a free throw rate of just 7%. As a team, they shot just four free throws. 4 total free throws. Against Pitt (Florida State could never). 

The Houston and Miami games had similar themes; Virginia made just 6 threes on 22+ attempts and lost the 3-point battle overall, they turned the ball over slightly more than normal, and Houston especially was shooting well from 3 themselves. These three games were part of the 6 lowest offensive outputs so far this season by Virginia, and one of those other games was the first FSU game. 

Armaan Franklin left early in the Miami game but has otherwise been finding his groove in this Virginia offense since the last time FSU saw him, averaging 13 PPG if you take out that Miami game, and has been in double figures in all but one game after having only gotten to 10 points or more twice in the first 7 games. FSU will likely have a little bit of a closer eye on him than they did in the first games. 

The other common denominator in all three losses was Virginia was out-rebounded in all three games. FSU contended well on the glass in the first game, just narrowly missing out 38-34, and that was when they had one of their better rebounders in Cam'Ron Fletcher. Matthew Cleveland has been phenomenal on the glass since the loss of Fletcher, but he's going to have to go out and get it in this one. 

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown

FSU's defensive performance Wednesday night was disappointing, to say the least, and yet it was somehow only the 4th worst defensive performance of the season by them, according to KenPom, behind the St John's, Duke, and Stetson games. The biggest disappointment was their refusal to adjust to the 3-point line. I watched as Damari Monsanto, who was 5/5 from distance before this shot, cut baseline, and Cameron Corhen not chase him all the way out as Monsanto caught it wide open in the corner and made it 6/6 from 3. Wake Forest ended up shooting 14/26 from deep but it felt like 14/20. 

The other big disappointment was the turnovers, with Florida State coughing it up 17 times for a turnover rate of 23.8%, the third worst of the season behind Nebraska (26.9%) and Troy (25.8%). The turnovers and 3-point defense combined are a recipe for disaster, no matter how well they shot the ball, as it was only the third game this season where they had an offensive efficiency rating over 100 and they lost. One of FSU biggest keys to winning all season is the turnover rate. All of their wins have come when FSU turns it over on less than 19% of their possessions, and they were CLOSE to being below that in the first game at Virginia at 20.2%. It's not unreasonable to say that with them coming home in this game that FSU will take a little better care of the ball in their own environment. 

The one thing FSU did in the first game to keep it close was strong defense, holding Virginia to 35.3% from the floor. Yes, Virginia shot 26 free throws, but 8 of those came in the final minute as FSU tried to close the gap. If they can keep a similar defensive effort, they'll stand a great chance. 

Injury Report

Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with an ACL tear. 

Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury. 

Baba Miller is battling tonsillitis, but I imagine he'll make a go of it in this one. 

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Caleb Mills

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Matthew Cleveland

F: Cameron Corhen

Virginia

G: Kihei Clark

G: Reece Beekman

G: Armaan Franklin

F: Jayden Gardner

C: Kadin Shedrick

Keys to the Game

Turnovers

Florida State has to keep the turnovers down, as has been imperative all season. Virginia has blips where they struggle to score in the half-court, so there's no reason to give them the opportunity to score in transition. Be strong with the basketball as you attack the gaps and be smart with the passes. 

Rebounding

All three of Virginia's losses have come when they're out-rebounded for the game. Matthew Cleveland has registered 6 straight double-doubles, and he's going to be key keeping Gardner off the glass in this one. The big question is if he'll get any help from the frontcourt pairing of Cameron Corhen and Naheem McLeod. 

Virginia's Offense

Virginia is playing a pace of basketball that favors FSU right now, forcing them to maximize each possession and forcing them to lock down defensively. FSU is going to have to play with a similar effort as they did in the first game against Virginia, holding them to 35.3% from the floor. If they're around a similar percentage while doing the two things above, FSU is going to have a fighting chance. 

Game Prediction

Virginia is favored by 9 points, with an over/under of 134.5. 

There should be zero expectation for FSU to win this game, and yet, I'm feeling somewhat optimistic, if only because Florida State knows as well as anyone how to beat Virginia. It's the execution that matters. FSU keeps this close, but Virginia comes away in the end. 

Virginia 65 FSU 60