Game Preview: FSU Basketball at Louisville Cardinals

The Seminoles are looking to bounce back after a week off.

After a week off, Florida State is finally back in action, traveling to Kentucky to take on the lowly Louisville Cardinals. This is a game the 'Noles simply cannot afford to lose if they want to keep their slim NCAA Tournament chances alive. 

This is a series FSU has dominated recently, having won 7 straight against Louisville, including four straight on the road. The old Metro Conference members have become one of the chippier games from your non-traditional rivals. As with any opportunity I can, here's Trent Forrest dunking on Jordan Nwora a few years ago for good luck. 

It's a late tip-off: 8 PM on the ACC Network, live from the KFC YUM! Center in Louisville, Kentucky. 

Louisville Cardinals Breakdown (6-15 Overall, 1-9 ACC)

Louisville is in their second season under head coach Kenny Payne, which may be his last. He's a combined 10-43 at the helm in Louisville, seemingly never in control of his team on or off the court. 

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They've played better this year, but it was never really going to get worse than last year. At least in this season, they've seen close losses to Texas, Indiana, NC State, and Clemson, but they also did lose to the other worst major conference team in DePaul. That's just the beginning of their bad performances, as they needed a game-winner to beat UMBC (who is 320th in KenPom, lost to UT-Chattanooga and Arkansas State, and have just one ACC win to their name so far; a road win at Miami, their first road ACC win in over two years.

It's a lot of words to say that it's not a very good basketball team once again. This year, it's as many injuries as it is anything else, as just five players have played in all 21 games so far. It already wasn't a very talented team, to begin with, and they've only gotten worse as the injuries and other... situations... have developed. It's about a 7-man rotation normally, but three of their top players are dealing with injuries. 

They do have four players currently averaging double-figure scoring: Michael James, Tre White, Skyy Clark, and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield. James leads the way at 13.4 PPG and had an impressive stretch in early January where he scored 20+ in three straight games. Since then (five games), he's back down to earth, averaging just over 12 PPG, including less than 10 points in three of those games. He's not as efficient on his 2s as you'd like him to be, but is a good shooter from both the line and the 3-point line. 

Tre White is coming off a career-high 29 points against Clemson on Tuesday night, shattering his previous high of 22 points. He's the inverse of James, an elite inside-the-arc scorer, mostly poor from behind the arc. Shooting 52% on 2s is impressive for a perimeter player, especially given the lack of spacing on this team. 

Skyy Clark is their lead guard, averaging 12.8 PPG and 2.9 APG. He takes the most 3s of anyone on the team but is only making them at a 31.2% clip. His speed makes him dangerous, with a great first step allowing him to get downhill quickly. Clark was kneed in the face Tuesday night against Clemson and sat the rest of the game, he's a game-time decision. 

Brandon Huntley-Hatfield has been forced to play as a small center at 6'10", 235 pounds, and has done an admirable job by averaging 10.1 PPG and 8.6 RPG. He's not a shot-blocker whatsoever, so Florida State will have opportunities at the rim if they can get inside. He lives on the inside, with only 9 attempts threes all season, but is athletic enough to guard multiple positions. 

Ty-Laur Johnson has helped them a lot in the play-making department, but a rolled ankle in warmups before Clemson forced him to sit that game, and his status in this one is up in the air. Louisville is one of the worst teams in college basketball when it comes to assists, so having Johnson and Clark up in the air is going to make them rely on isolation baskets more than usual. 

Curtis Williams and Kaleb Glenn have seen an uptick in minutes recently with all of the injuries. Williams is a solid 3PT shooter with size, Glenn is really just a body they can put in the frontcourt. 

It's a poor team: they don't shoot the ball well from 3 (solid from the free throw line), they're bad pretty much everywhere defensively, and have a hard time getting easy baskets. If they're not living at the line, it's hard to imagine them scoring. 

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (12-8 Overall, 6-3 ACC)

I think it was a good thing Florida State got a week off following the UNC loss, a game that was winnable but they just ran out of gas down the stretch. Playing a much lesser opponent just a couple of days after that was bound to have a mess up. Instead, a week off to refocus and get ready for a very important stretch should pay dividends. 

These next two games, Louisville and Boston College, are both very winnable on the road, even if they provide very different challenges. How Florida State defends Louisville's wings of Mike James and Tre White will likely dictate this game. They have some great options to throw at them, though. Between Jamir Watkins, Jalen Warley, Baba Miller, and even Chandler Jackson, the Seminoles have several different great defenders to keep throwing at Louisville's best scorers. 

Because Louisville lacks traditional ball handling, I'm expecting more pressure than normal initially out of FSU, trying to poke the ball loose or to speed Louisville up. Either way, that's what the 'Noles want. 

Something I want Florida State to do is attack the offensive glass, as Louisville has no true big men with Dennis Evans out for the season. Brandon Huntley-Hatfield has been forced into that role and has performed admirably, but there's no reason FSU can't dominate the offensive glass with their size advantage, even if they haven't gone to it much this season. 

Injury Report

Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury. 

For Louisville, it's a long list of injuries for them. 

Skyy Clark took a knee to the head in their loss to Clemson Tuesday night, sitting the rest of the game. Coach Payne has said he'll be a game-time decision and went through practice on Friday, but it is tough to imagine him playing from my point of view. 

Ty-Laur Johnson rolled his ankle in pregame warmups before Clemson, making him a late scratch for that game. He's also a game-time decision. 

Hercy Miller is away from the team getting "medical consultation" on whatever he's dealing with, so he won't be playing. 

Center Dennis Evans is not medically cleared to play with a shoulder injury. He'll be out for the season. 

JJ Traynor re-injured his shoulder in practice early in January and will also be missing the rest of the season. 

Projected Starters

Louisville

G: Curtis Williams (If Skyy Clark and Ty-Laur Johnson are unavailable)

G: Mike James

G: Tre White

F: Kaleb Glenn

F: Brandon Huntley-Hatfield

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Jamir Watkins

F: Baba Miller

F: De'Ante green

Keys to the Game

1-On-1 Defense

Louisville already has one of the lowest assist rates in the country, coming in at 318th. When they might be playing without their two point guards Skyy Clark and Ty-Laur Johnson, that only becomes more of an issue for them, coming off of a game where the team had a season-low 4 assists. 

For Florida State, they have to focus on keeping Mike James and Tre White from getting open looks. If they're making contested looks, fine, but you don't want to over-pursue and let them get free drives to the basket. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see FSU defenders really dig in and help off of their man early just to see if Louisville thinks about passing at all. 

Never Count Louisville Out

Despite what some of their final scores show, Louisville isn't always just beaten badly every game; there's a decent amount of fight in them, even down 15-20 points. Take their last game against Clemson, the Tigers were up 55-31 with a little under 13 minutes remaining, before Louisville clawed their way back into the game, getting the lead down to as little as 4 points. Even against UNC, it looked like the Tar Heels were going to run away with it, up by 20 points just before halftime, and up 18 just three minutes into the second half. Four minutes later, Louisville had trimmed the lead to 5. 

This is one of those games where you can't look at the record of the opposing team or how many points they're down by, Florida State has to handle business for 40 minutes. 

Free Throw Line Disparity

There are a lot of things Louisville does poorly, but their ability to get to the free throw line and keep teams from shooting free throws are both above average. Getting to the free throw line (and their percentage once they're there) specifically is their best offensive game plan. Florida State is going to have to be better at defending without fouling than they have been for the majority of the season, as Louisville is averaging over 22 free throw attempts per game. When they're making them at a near-75% mark, you can't afford to let them have those opportunities. 

On the flip side, Louisville is 0-8 when their opponents have a higher free throw rate than 33%, which is slightly under FSU's season average. They should win as long as the 'Noles have an average outing from the free-throw line. 

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 6 points, with a projected total of 150.5. 

Louisville has been a much more competitive team this season than last year, but they're still not exactly good. Florida State must keep their foot on the gas throughout the game. If they can do that, there's no reason they can't win by double-digits. They've had some trouble closing games, and 5 of Louisville's 6 wins have been at home. Things could get weird, but I'd be very concerned if FSU drops this one. 

Florida State 79, Louisville 70

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