Game Preview: FSU Basketball at Syracuse Orange
Florida State is in the middle of an important stretch of basketball, having just lost at home to Clemson this past weekend, and will play Syracuse and North Carolina this week. It starts in the Dome, where Syracuse has yet to lose this season.
The 'Noles have won in their last two trips to upper New York (2019, 2022), with this being a great opportunity to try and make it three straight.
This game will be at 7 PM on ESPN2, live from the JMA Wireless Dome in Syracuse, New York (change it back to the Carrier Dome please).
Syracuse Orange Breakdown (13-5 Overall, 4-3 ACC)
Syracuse is in their first season under head coach Adrian Autry, who took over for long-time Orange great Jim Boeheim. He's taken away the infamous 2-3 zone in most instances in favor of man-to-man defense, but they will break out the zone occasionally. After watching FSU/Clemson, they may be more inclined to run it in this game.
The Orange are coming off of a thrilling victory Saturday afternoon, with Quadir Copeland, who was 5/22 from 3 before this shot, knocked down this unlikely buzzer-beater.
Full disclosure, I have no idea what the actual play was supposed to be there. It looked to me like Coach Autry told Judah Mintz to not go for a little too long. That's a shot Miami was willing to lose on, and they lost.
It did highlight something about 'Cuse though: streaky 3-point shooting. For the first 28:15 of the game, they were 6/24 from behind the arc. Over the final 12:45, they were 6/7. This has been a theme all season. The game before against Pitt, they shot 58.8% from deep. In the four games before that, they shot under 30% in each game, including a brutal 3/17 game (also against Pitt, strangely), and in the four games before that stretch, they were above 36% in each, with three of those being above 40%.
In short, it's a very inconsistent offense. The one constant has been the scoring presence of Judah Mintz, averaging 17.9 PPG, 4.3 APG, and 3.4 RPG. He's only had two games this season scoring below 10 points (one of those a loss to Virginia) but also has four games scoring 25 points or more. He mainly just attacks the basket, shooting just under 3 threes per game, but is a solid midrange shooter as well. Florida State would prefer for him to settle for jump shots. He's also an absolute demon on the ball, averaging 2.2 steals per game, and a big reason why Syracuse leads the ACC in steals.
The offense continues to run through the guards, as JJ Starling, who played at Notre Dame last season, helps alleviate the ball-handling duties, averaging 11.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG, and 2.3 APG. He's shooting 51.5% inside the arc, a very good percentage for a guard, and is fine from 3, nothing spectacular.
Chris Bell is their 3-point specialist, having shot almost 40 more 3s than anyone else on the team, and making them at the highest clip of their rotation at 39.1%. Florida State will have to close out on him. He's still a capable scorer everywhere else, averaging 11.1 PPG, but doesn't offer much else in terms of rebounding or passing.
Maliq Brown has stepped into the starting lineup as a small 5 (stands at just 6'8") due to the season-ending injury to Naheem McLeod. Even before McLeod's injury, he led the team in rebounds at 6.2 RPG. His 9.6 PPG comes almost exclusively at the rim and he's a strong free throw shooter as well at 88%. He has quick hands down low which allows him to join Mintz at 2.2 steals per game.
Quadir Copeland, the hero of Saturday, is normally a poor shooter and takes the majority of his shots inside the arc. Despite being listed as a guard, he's a strong rebounder at 5.3 RPG, even more impressive considering he normally comes off of the bench.
Justin Taylor has started all 18 games, but has been extremely inefficient, shooting 31.9% from 2 and from 3. Something to note though, Syracuse is 2-4 when he doesn't hit a 3 and 11-1 when he does hit at least one.
Some other bench pieces you'll see include athletic wing Benny Williams, who still hasn't quite figured out his scoring potential, and Kyle Cuffe, who usually is just there for cardio.
These are two very similar basketball teams statistically. They shoot the exact same percentage from 3 (32.6%), are shooting around 49% on their 2s, force a bunch of turnovers (both teams are atop the ACC in forced turnover rate and steals), block 12% of all shots, and are iffy taking care of their own basketball. The only difference between the two teams is Florida State has been handing out free passes to the free throw line all season, while Syracuse has done a great job of defending without fouling. Syracuse also hasn't suffered bad losses, with four of them coming to top-20 KenPom teams (Tennessee, Gonzaga, Duke, UNC) and the other being Virginia.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (11-7 Overall, 5-2 ACC)
It was a disappointing offense performance Saturday against Clemson. After finally finding some offensive consistency to start January, they put up their worst offensive efficiency of the month and their defense couldn't do a good enough job on the other end to make up for it. They'll need to be better in this game, plain and simple.
Part of it starts with getting Jamir Watkins more involved early. He started to pile on the points when it was a little too late. He leads the 'Noles in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. The earlier you get him going, the more I think it opens up for everyone else.
Darin Green Jr. also has to be more efficient. The offense can't sustain itself normally when he's shooting 4/13 from the floor. He's also been uncharacteristically shaky from the free throw line, shooting just 69.2% from the stripe, well below his career average of 78.5%. Florida State would be thrilled with a 6/10 performance (or similar) here against Syracuse.
I'm curious to see how much desperation or urgency this team plays with, if any. You can afford one or two losses here and there, that's going to happen. What you can't do is snowball the Clemson loss into three straight, which could very well happen with UNC coming to Tallahassee on Saturday. There are rarely must-win games in January, but I'd argue this is one, as it's a Q1 game against a team that isn't the same caliber of team as UNC.
Even if Syracuse doesn't run near as much 2-3 zone as they used to, FSU needs to practice it and be prepared for it. Clemson did a great job of switching up defenses in timeout to catch the 'Noles off-guard, but their zone offense simply has to be better going forward for the few times they see it.
Injury Report
Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.
For Syracuse, former Seminole Naheem McLeod is out for the season after having foot surgery.
Chance Westry has been out recently with a lower-body injury. It's not likely he will return for this game.
William Patterson is redshirting.
Projected Starters
Syracuse
G: Judah Mintz
G: JJ Starling
G: Justin Taylor
F: Chris Bell
F: Maliq Brown
Florida State
G: Jalen Warley
G: Darin Green Jr
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Baba Miller
F: De'Ante Green
Keys to the Game
Let There Be Turnovers
These are the best two teams in the ACC at stealing the ball and forcing turnovers both teams are top-40 nationally in both statistics) while being just okay protecting the ball. This should be a high-turnover affair.
Whichever team can take better care of the basketball while also doing a better job of turning those steals into transition points will help their average offenses tremendously.
Limiting The Guard Play
Judah Mintz and JJ Starling are averaging a combined 29.7 PPG, which accounts for about 40% of the entire team. They're two guards with size that can score, rebound, and move the ball around, though Mintz is definitely the better scorer of the two.
I imagine Jalen Warley and Jamir Watkins will be the primary defenders on these two while they bring the ball up, and as long as those two can stay out of foul trouble, they may have a chance to keep Mintz's and Starling's impact slightly down.
Florida State's 3-Point Shooting
The 'Noles have really struggled to shoot the 3 in January, making 4 or fewer threes in four of their five last games and shooting 29/94 (30.4%) from distance this month. If not for an above 50% performance against Wake Forest, that number would be even further in the doldrums.
FSU needs to find some consistency from deep. I'm not saying they need to be above 40%, but defenses are starting to shrink further and further against them to cut off driving lanes. The drive and kick opportunities will be there, they just have to see and make them.
Game Prediction
Syracuse is favored by 4 points with a projected total of 150.5.
Florida State likely needs this game, which makes me think they're going to be pressing a little too hard to get another road win. At the same time, Syracuse is coming off of a thrilling buzzer-beater, which usually calls for a letdown in the next game. I think 'Cuse will win an ugly game that will be filled with turnovers.
Syracuse 71, Florida State 68
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