Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. No. 9 Duke Blue Devils

The Seminoles look to upset the Blue Devils for the first time since 2022.

It's one of the last big games of the season for Florida State as Duke comes to town. Duke is never an easy team to beat, but FSU has had slightly more success playing them at home over the years than anywhere else. 

The Blue Devils can't afford to lose this game for NCAA Tournament seeding purposes, sitting with a 1-2 Quad 2 record. They've already lost one bad road game to Georgia Tech and need to continue to prove that was a fluke while Florida State needs to find some confidence before the ACC Tournament, having lost 4 of their last 5 games. 

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This game will be at 2 PM on ESPN at the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida. 

#9 Duke Blue Devils Breakdown (19-5 Overall, 10-3 ACC)

Duke is in their 2nd full season under Jon Scheyer and has been slightly underwhelming compared to their lofty projections. Early season losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech have gotten worse over time, while Blake Hinson lit them up for 3 at home in another surprising loss. Just from an outside view, I'm not entirely sure this year's Duke team has the killer mentality needed to make a deep run in March. 

That's not to say they don't have a ton of talent, which they obviously do, with nine former top-100 prospects. Coming into the season, I figured they'd lean more into their depth than they have, really only consistently playing 6 players. Florida State has been getting opposing bigs in foul trouble recently, so Ryan Young may have to play more than the 9 MPG over the last 7 games. 

It's a very good offense overall: 36.8% as a team on 3s, 54.6% on 2s, rarely turn the ball over, and do a good job of spreading the ball around. They're fairly close to having a 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio as a team, which is very impressive. 

Leading the team in scoring is Kyle Filipowski, with 17.4 PPG and 8.3 RPG. He's shooting very well around the rim but doesn't always hold up well against physicality. I'll be honest, I haven't been a big fan of the way he's played in conference play, even if he has good numbers (can't wait to see this come back and bite me). There are ways to minimize his impact, and the way FSU has been getting opposing big in foul trouble, it could be something to watch. 

Jeremy Roach has become a great veteran presence for Duke as their lead guard, averaging 13.9 PPG and a 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He's taken a massive jump as a perimeter shooter, going from around 33% in his first three years on campus to 44.6% this season. The spacing has helped, but he just looks more comfortable. In three of the four losses he's played in, he's had four or more fouls, so I expect to see FSU put him and Filipowski in screens often.

Jared McCain has been a lot of fun to watch. Despite being a 6'3" shooting guard, he has six games with ten or more rebounds, four of those coming in the last five games. On top of that, he's shooting 38.5% from three on close to 5.5 attempts per game. He had been going through a little bit of a shooting slump, having a four-game stretch where he was shooting 5/22 from deep, but his ability to impact the game in other ways is huge for a freshman.

Mark Mitchell has also been playing well as of late, coming off of 23 points and 8 rebounds on Monday against Wake Forest. He's capable of stretching out and hitting 3s, but he's more comfortable driving into the paint. I fear more about switching onto him than I do Filipowski.

Tyrese Proctor started ACC play strong, but has really struggled in February: 5.3 PPG, 30.8% shooting from the floor, 20% from 3. In January, he averaged 12.4 PPG and shot 41.9% from 3. He's due for a bounceback performance at some point, but FSU certainly wouldn't mind if his shooting woes lasted another game. 

Caleb Foster is their one true bench piece and has been able to give them solid bench production as a guard. FSU would prefer him to see a lot of minutes, as freshmen guards normally don't do well with Florida State's pressure (with Ty-Laur Johnson-sized exceptions). 

Ryan Young and Sean Stewart will occasionally come in to clean up the glass as bigs but haven't played a whole lot as of late. 

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (13-11 Overall, 7-6 ACC)

FSU's defense has faded in the last month and I'm not particularly sure why. Maybe it's because of the fouling, but guys have to communicate better defensively. There were multiple times Tuesday night when not pointing or directing traffic left shooters open on switches and it's far too late in the season for them to be doing that. In the first five games of January, Florida State had an average defensive efficiency of 98.8. Since then, in a span of 7 games, that average jumps all the way to 109.8, and the last two games being above 120. The only two games in which they were below 100, Syracuse and Boston College, were wins. 

Everything Florida State tries to do revolves around its defense. They haven't been forcing their usual rate of turnovers, teams are lighting them up from 3 and constantly posting a free throw rate of higher than 40%. A lot of it can be fixed with simple communication. 

The guards have been really hit or miss all of February. You'll get a good game from one or two of them every game, but it's a different person every time and the others struggle to provide positive play the rest of the time. College basketball is predicated on good guard play nowadays and FSU simply hasn't gotten enough of it in recent weeks. 

If there has been a positive in recent weeks, it's been Jamir Watkins. Starting with the win over Wake Forest in early January, Watkins has been averaging 17.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.1 SPG, and 1.0 BPG while shooting greater than 50% on 2-pointers and 82.4% from the free throw line in that stretch. The only issue with him has been fouls, as he's had four or more fouls in each of his last five games. He's far too important for this team to not be in the game. Still, he's having an All-ACC type of season and will be looking to make an impact against one of the top teams in the conference. 

Injury Report

Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury. 

Duke's Christian Reeves is out for the season with an ankle injury. 

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Darin Green Jr. 

F: Jamir Watkins

F: Baba Miller

F: De'Ante Green

Duke

G: Jeremy Roach

G: Jared McCain

G: Tyrese Proctor

F: Mark Mitchell

F: Kyle Filipowski

Keys to the Game

Attack the Paint

Duke is just an average team at protecting the paint and has one of the lowest block percentages as a team in the country. There's no reason Jamir Watkins, Primo Spears, or Jalen Warley can't continuously drive into the paint, especially off of the pick-and-roll. If Duke decides to start icing ball screens, like they were earlier in the season against Georgia Tech, using Cam Corhen on short rolls could be effective. 

The more they can bring Filipowski away from the basket, the better it'd be for FSU's chances offensively. Duke has smaller guards so I could even see Warley and Watkins getting some post touches to try and bully down low. 

Force Filipowski to Beat You With Jump Shots

It's not that Filipowski is a bad jump shooter, but he can be very hot and cold. Since January 23rd, he's just 5/27 from 3 while being 35/61 on 2s. The more physical you can be with him, without fouling, the more he's going to want to stay out of the paint. He's not a very physical player and that can work against him at times. 

Switching against him is either going to work really well or go very poorly, no in-between. Either he's going to be able to use his length to shoot over smaller players or it's going to make him see opportunities that aren't really there. Considering he dealt with foul trouble against FSU last year, just 6 points in 18 minutes with 4 fouls, we don't really know how he'll perform. 

Rebounds

Duke is a very good defensive-rebounding team and about an average offensive-rebounding team. With how FSU can sometimes be susceptible to offensive rebounds, they're going to have to make sure they're boxing out. Filipowski and Mark Mitchell each get over two offensive boards per game, while Ryan Young and Sean Stewart come off of the bench in limited minutes to give them an offensive rebound rate greater than 12%. 

Then there's freshman guard Jared McCain, who has three double-doubles in his last five games, and it would've been a fourth if he could've scored one more point against Virginia Tech, although I will say in the two games he's gotten 11 rebounds this year, Duke has lost both games. Putting a body on Duke's bigs has to be a priority in this game. 

Game Prediction

Duke is favored by 5 points, with a projected total of 151.5. 

Florida State historically has played Duke close at home in recent years. In the last 10 years, Duke has played in Tallahassee 4 times with each team winning twice, and 3 of the 4 games finishing within one possession. It would be very characteristic of this year's FSU team to somehow win this game as well. I'm not saying they will win, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised. 

Duke 80, Florida State 78

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