Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Clemson Tigers

The Seminoles put their five-game winning streak to the test against the Tigers.

It's been an incredible turnaround so far in January, to the point where the NCAA Tournament Bubble is on the minds of fans again. A good opportunity presents itself as Clemson comes to town, and it's an important game to win, as FSU will likely need to win out at home to give themselves their best chance.

Clemson has won five of the last seven in this series, but last season was the first time the Tigers had won in Tallahassee since 2015, and this is one of those series where the teams play twice every year. Even still, they only won by a single point against one of the worst teams in recent Florida State memory. With both teams looking improved from a season ago, this should be a good game once again.

FSU Football Offensive Lineman No Longer With The Team

This game will be at 4:00 PM on the ACC Network, live from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida. 

Clemson Tigers Breakdown (12-5 Overall, 2-4 ACC)

Clemson is in its 13th season under head coach Brad Brownell, who some thought was on the hot seat if they couldn't make it to the NCAA Tournament. Before January, Clemson looked like one of the best teams in the conference, ranking as high as 13th in the AP Poll, sitting at 11-1 and their only blemish being a 2-point loss on the road against a great Memphis team. Since then, they're just 1-4, with losses at Miami, vs UNC, at Virginia Tech, and at home against Georgia Tech. They've definitely come crashing down in a hurry. 

The Georgia Tech game was an all-time collapse. Clemson had a 99.3% chance of winning, with a 68-59 lead with 1:43 remaining in regulation. It went into overtime tied at 71. They allowed the Yellow Jackets to score 12 points in 1:33 to end regulation, and would eventually lose in double overtime. According to KenPom, it's the third unlikeliest win of the season of any team, surpassing FSU's collapse against Georgia. 

I still think this is one of the better teams in the ACC. I thought they'd be the second-best team in the league if you go back and read my ACC preview, but it would take a major turnaround for that to happen. Still, you can't sleep on this team just because of recent results; they're talented with a superb offense. 

Clemson's offense is currently a top-15 offense on KenPom and is efficient from everywhere on the floor: 35.8% from 3, 55.8% on 2s, 76.5% from the free throw line, top-40 in turnover rate, and a 55% effective field goal percentage. It's a hard offense to keep contained. 

Their defense is the reason they lose games. In their last five games, they've allowed an average of 83.6 PPG, and that includes holding UNC to just 65 in what was an oddly low-scoring, low-possession game for both teams. Teams are shooting 35.1% from 3 against them and rarely turn the ball over, which should bode well for FSU. 

Leading the way is All-ACC forward PJ Hall, averaging 20.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 2.1 BPG. The team revolves around Hall; as he goes, so does Clemson. In their recent three-game losing streak against Miami, UNC, and Virginia Tech, those averages were down to 12.7 PPG, 5 RPG, and 0.7 BPG, while fouling out twice. Florida State would LOVE for those numbers to continue, and not the 31/17/3 he put up against Georgia Tech. 

What makes Hall so difficult to guard is his offensive versatility and mobility. He can score from anywhere, is a good enough shooter from 3 to respect the shot (was 4/4 from 3 against FSU last season), can put the ball on the floor to get to the basket, and is great around the rim. These last two seasons against FSU (four games), he's averaged 20 and 7, shooting 62.5% from the floor. They haven't had an answer for him in recent years, but FSU's bigs have come a long way this year. 

Joseph Girard III traded one orange and white uniform for another, transferring from Syracuse to the Tigers this past offseason. He's still the exact same player but isn't turning it over as much as he had been. Girard is more than capable of pulling up well beyond the arc (career-high 42.4% from 3 on 7 attempts per game), is an elite free throw shooter at 91.4%, and is a solid playmaker now that his turnovers are at a career-low. His size limits him on the defensive end and in getting to the basket, he's actually shooting a career-low amount of 2s per game despite it being his 5th season. 

Chase Hunter has helped alleviate some of the ball-handling duties as a guy who can break down the defense and get to the paint, and is scoring 11.7 PPG, 2.9 APG, and 2.5 RPG. He's struggled with his efficiency at just 39.3% from the floor and 27.5% from 3, including just 3 of his last 21 from deep. They'd like to get him going again. 

Ian Schieffelin is the epitome of a hustle guy: 9.9 PPG, 9.8 RPG (3.5 on the offensive glass), and is only shooting about 6.5 attempts per game, almost all of them at the rim. He'll take about 1 three per game and make it at a high rate, but it just really isn't his game. 

Chauncey Wiggins has taken a step up as a sophomore but isn't really being used much offensively, averaging 7.6 PPG on 6 attempts per game. He's a solid shooter at 35.8% from 3, which is where 50% of his attempts are coming from, and has a lot of size at 6'10". 

The depth to watch: Alex Hemenway (if he returns from injury) is a 43% 3-point shooter that they've desperately been missing. Jack Clark is a tough-nosed rebounder and hustle scorer but has still been working his way back from injury (Tuesday against GT was his first game in over a month, played 10 minutes). Dillon Hunter is a great bench playmaker but isn't getting the scoring opportunities he probably hoped. And RJ Godfrey is their best bench scorer at 7.4 PPG, an around-the-rim forward who cannot shoot free throws. 

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (11-6 Overall, 5-1 ACC)

Less than a month ago, Florida State lost at home to a low-major Lipscomb team, and it seemed all hope was gone. The season was over, guys were checked out, time to move on. 

Five wins in five games later, fans are talking about NCAA Tournament chances. Life comes at you fast in college basketball. Their chances are still slim as of now, though, as they dug a deep hole losing to Lipscomb, USF (who is turning a corner as of late, just won on the road at Memphis), and Georgia. As of now, all three of those are Q3 losses. Georgia and USF could work their way a few spots higher to become two losses, but at the end of the day, to steal a Mike Norvell phrase, Florida State has to control what they can control. That starts with winning their home games. 

All of FSU's toughest remaining opponents are at home: Duke, UNC, Clemson, NC State, and Virginia all come to the Tucker Center. Florida State has to win a good majority of their home games. Ideally, they're no worse than 6-1 for their last seven home games. Because all of their good opponents are at home, it makes it tougher to pick up quality wins, as the NET Quadrant system is based on where you play the team. As of the time of this writing, Duke, UNC, at Virginia Tech, and at Clemson are their only remaining Q1 chances, though Syracuse, Pitt, and Boston College could crack that Top 75 throughout the season. 

In terms of this game, Wednesday was obviously a very emotional win over a rival and Matthew Cleveland. How this team responds after that game is going to be telling for the rest of the season. They have a good mix of veterans with experience to balance out the youth that can hopefully keep the ship pointing in the right direction. At the same time, no one on this team has really tasted success before, and responding to success is more of a challenge than people would think. 

Clemson embarrassed FSU last season in Clemson's building, winning by 40 and starting the game on a 16-3 run. That's going to be fresh on the minds of some of these guys that stayed. 

Florida State has to be more efficient with their 3-point shooting. They're already not guarding Jalen Warley whatsoever from the perimeter (understandably), but as a team, FSU has been under 30% from 3 in three of their last four games. They're doing enough everywhere else to offset it, but they'd make life a lot easier if they could hit 3s with consistency. 

Injury Report

Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury. 

Alex Hemenway hasn't played since November 24th with what's being called a lower-body injury. His status is still uncertain. 

Jack Clark played for the first time on Tuesday against Georgia Tech since the ACC/SEC Challenge and will likely see more minutes in this game. 

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Jamir Watkins

F: Baba Miller

F: De'Ante Green

Clemson

G: Joseph Girard III

G: Chase Hunter

F: Chauncey Wiggins

F: Ian Schieffelin

F: PJ Hall

Keys to the Game

PJ Hall's Impact

PJ Hall is a spectacular college player and has a history of big performances against Florida State. It's a complete flip in the style of the type of big they're playing. Norchad Omier on Wednesday was all around the rim, with offensive rebounds, finishing with tough angles, etc. Hall can get after it on the glass as well, but his game stretches to 3, where he shoots a good enough 33.3% to respect him from all over the floor. 

Much like the Miami game, the good thing is Florida State has a good rotation of bigs that they can keep throwing at him to keep him guessing. If he's hovering around his averages of 20 points and 7 rebounds, it'll be tough for FSU to keep everyone else limited. In their recent three-game losing streak, he averaged 12.7 PPG and 5 RPG; FSU would be thrilled to keep him around there. 

Don't Lose Sight of Joseph Girard in Transition

Girard is a lights-out shooter and can flip the momentum of the game in a second if you give him space. While at Syracuse last season, he lit up Florida State for 26 points while shooting 5/8 from 3. The 'Noles did a good job of limiting Nijel Pack in the first half on Wednesday but allowed Miami to get back in the game by losing sight of Pack in transition and he got hot. They'll have to be better against Girard here. 

The biggest thing is to force him out of his rhythm inside the arc first. If he's not hitting those, he'll force 3s he probably shouldn't take. I'd like FSU to be physical with him, but as a 90%+ free throw shooter, you also don't want to send him to the free throw line more than necessary. 

Scoring in the Paint

Florida State scored 52 points in the paint against Miami on Wednesday night and they're likely going to need a similar impact in the paint in this game. Four of Clemson's five losses have come when their opponent shoots better than 54% inside the arc, which opened up the 3-point shot for those offenses. They'd been a solid 2-point defense all year, but have shown some cracks recently. 

Hall blocks 2 shots per game, but if FSU can find a way to either get him in foul trouble or ignore him and score over the top, the rest of the defense isn't strong enough on the perimeter to stop the drive. I expect more of Jalen Warley posting up on Girard sporadically throughout the game to take advantage of that mismatch. 

Game Prediction 

Clemson is favored by 1.5 points, with a projected total of 150.5. 

This feels like a game where Clemson gets back on track to derail a rolling freight train in FSU, but the 'Noles are playing like a desperate team because they are one. I love the way Florida State has played recently and has historically played Clemson well at home (including their largest ACC win ever in 2017, winning by 48). This should be another entertaining game but I'll take FSU. 

Florida State 83 Clemson 79

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