Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. No. 3 North Carolina Tar Heels

Can the Seminoles pull off an upset in the Tucker Center?

Let me take you back in time. 

It's a Saturday in January 2012 at 2 PM. A Florida State team that had some unusual losses in non-conference play welcomes the #3 ranked North Carolina Tar Heels to Tallahassee and the Donald L Tucker Center, a team that had been on a freight train run of 9 straight wins by an average margin of over 20 PPG, with ESPN airing the game. Florida State's veteran shooting guard had been struggling in the games leading up to UNC, making just 5 of his last 29 3-point attempts. 

The Tar Heels would leave Tallahassee with a humiliating loss, dropping to the 'Noles 90-57, putting their overall record at 15-3, as Deividas Dulkys caught fire from 3, going 8 for 10 from distance and a career-high 32 points. 

Could history repeat itself? 

Well, it's a 2:00 game on a Saturday in January, the game is airing on ESPN, and the #3 North Carolina Tar Heels come into the game with... a 16-3 record, currently on a 9-game winning streak and winning by an average margin of 19.5 PPG. Darin Green Jr hasn't been struggling from 3 as much as Dulkys was heading into that game, but he hasn't been much better at 8 for his last 25. 

There are so many intertwinings that I even went back to see who officiated that game in 2012 to see if it was the same, and thankfully it's not (Jamie Luckie was the official in 2012 and it's Lee Cassell for this game). 

It's North Carolina vs Florida State, 2 PM on ESPN, live from the Donald L Tucker Center. Florida State has won 3 of its last 4 against UNC in the Tuck. 

#3 North Carolina Tar Heels Breakdown (16-3 Overall, 8-0 ACC)

Let's just talk about what has happened since these teams met. 

North Carolina used a 30-4 run in the second half to take control over Florida State, as the 'Noles struggled to find any consistent offense down the stretch. UNC followed that win in Chapel Hill with losses to Kentucky and UCONN, two very good teams. Since those losses, they've been on an absolute tear, winning nine straight games by an average of 19.5 PPG, and have a commanding two-game lead in the ACC. 

RJ Davis is coming off of a career-high 36 points on Monday night against Wake Forest and he's playing as well as ever. Armando Bacot hasn't been as strong as normal, scoring 10 points or less in three of his last five games, including just 5 against Wake. Against Florida State's switching scheme, he's looking forward to hopefully having a bounce-back game. 

In UNC's two losses to UCONN and Kentucky, it was a much different game on the offensive glass. They were held to an offensive rebound rate of below 25% while allowing one of greater than 30%. Both of those numbers by themselves have only happened four times this season for UNC, with those two games being the only times it's happened in the same game, not a surprise that they were losses. 

This is still one of the best scoring teams in the country, and they do it by getting to the free throw line a ton (24.8 FTAs per game is top-15 nationally) and making more than 75% of them. It keeps their possession totals high, something they want to do, while also giving them a small breather for their usual fast pace. 

Elliot Cadeau has been finding his scoring punch recently, putting up 14 on Monday against Wake Forest. He's arguably the biggest X-Factor on their team, as someone who can alleviate some of the ball-handling duties from Davis to give him a breather here and there. 

Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan have been their usual consistent selves, while the rest of the depth hasn't been contributing too much. 

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (12-7 Overall, 6-2 ACC)

Florida State initially struggled following the loss to UNC, as that loss was the second of four straight losses, and then another embarrassing loss to Lipscomb to end December. In total, the 'Noles were just 2-4 in December and looked lifeless. Since then, they've started 2024 winning 6 of 7, with quality wins over Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Miami, and Syracuse. They've started to dig themselves out of the abyss they dug themselves into, and a win over UNC would work wonders. For comparison, that 2012 team started 9-6 with losses to Harvard, Princeton, and a bad Clemson team before going 16-4 the rest of the way, beating North Carolina and Duke twice on their way to winning their first ACC Championship (I still haven't gotten over the loss to Cincinnati in the Round of 32). It can be done. 

Since I don't think Florida State can replicate UCONN's and Kentucky's formula of contending on and winning the offensive glass, they're more likely to try and do what Villanova did: attack the inside with reckless abandon. If you can get Bacot in foul trouble, great, but Jamir Watkins set a career-high with 27 points Tuesday night by putting his head down and getting to the basket, refusing to be denied. 

Speaking of Watkins, he's going to have a chance to be an All-ACC type of player if he continues the way he's been playing. As most broadcasts have noted, he's currently leading Florida State in points, assists, rebounds, and steals, but he's been on a roll these last five games, averaging 17.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.8 SPG, and the big thing- shooting 82.9% from the free throw line. 

I'll probably keep saying it until it happens, but Darin Green Jr is due for a big game and I'd love for it to be this game, to continue the lore of veteran shooting guards against UNC. But he's quietly been a much-improved defender this season. Did you know he's now tied with Watkins for the most total steals on the team with 30? In three of his last six games, he's had 3 or more steals. Fans love to say when he's not shooting it well, he doesn't provide anything and I couldn't disagree more. 

Injury Report

Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury. He just had surgery on it this past week. 

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Jamir Watkins

F: Baba Miller

F: De'Ante Green

North Carolina

G: Elliot Cadeau

G: RJ Davis

F: Cormac Ryan

F: Harrison Ingram

C: Armando Bacot

Keys to the Game

Survive/Limit UNC's Second Half Runs

North Carolina has made a living off of second-half runs to pull away from opponents with long, sustained runs. In their last 12 games, they have had second-half runs of the following: 13-2 against Wake Forest, 10-0 against Boston College, separate 11-1 and 12-2 runs against Louisville, 23-4 against Syracuse, 15-2 against NC State, 9-3 Clemson (which doesn't sound like a lot but it was a really low scoring game), separate 15-2 and 17-2 runs against Charleston Southern, and a 30-4 run against Florida State. Couple that with two 12-2 runs in the first half against Pitt and Oklahoma, and UNC only needs a few minutes of brilliance to win games. 

If Florida State can either keep UNC's runs to a smaller amount or have long runs of their own, it would go a long way in this game. What can't happen is that 30-4 run that Carolina went on against the 'Noles in December. 

A lot of stopping their runs has to do with not sending them to the free-throw line. Obviously, if you're playing UNC in the ACC, you're not going to get the benefit of the whistle very often. But sending them to the free throw line 25+ times in a game just will not get it done. Florida State hasn't been the best at defending without fouling, but it has to be something that gets done in this one. 

RJ Davis

RJ Davis is coming off of a career-high 36 points earlier in the week against Wake Forest and is averaging 23.8 PPG over his last 4 while shooting 50% from 3. Safe to say that Florida State has to keep the ball out of his hands as much as possible. If guys like Elliott Cadeau and Harrison Ingram are beating them, I think they live with that. But RJ Davis just has that aura to him that can get UNC instant momentum. 

It's not even just defending him with high hands, forcing him to shoot over you. He'll gladly do that. FSU has to do as much as possible off the ball to make sure he never gets it to begin with. 

Will Florida State's Offense Keep Up?

Florida State's offense exploded in the second half against Syracuse, scoring 50 points over the final 30 minutes and 33 points over the final 12 minutes. They've even shown against UNC in the first half that they can have instances of brilliance. The offense just cannot go cold in this game. UNC is top-25 in the country in points per game, you're likely going to have to score 80+ to win this game. Florida State's offense can keep up, the question is whether or not they will. 

Jamir Watkins continuing to be aggressive will help, but Darin Green Jr is due for a big game—no better time than now to have 20+ points with efficient scoring. 

Game Prediction

North Carolina is favored by 6.5 points on DraftKings, with a projected total of 154.5. 

I really want to pick Florida State to win here. There are so many things that mirror that 2012 game that it's hard not to and a win here would be massive for FSU's small tournament chances. It should be a really good game either way, but I think UNC is playing at just too high of a level right now to slow down. 

North Carolina 81, Florida State 79

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