Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Virginia Cavaliers

The Seminoles are back in the Tucker Center to face a red-hot Virginia squad.

It's a big-time matchup in the Tuck, as a red-hot Virginia team comes to town. 

This is one of the tightest all-time series in the ACC, as it's tied 28-28 (FSU is 17-8 at home), and the total points scored by both teams is a 1-point Florida State advantage. The storylines with a win will go a long way towards bragging rights in the series. 

Another late tip-off, as this one will be at 8 PM on the CW Network, live from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida. 

Virginia Cavaliers Breakdown (18-5 Overall, 9-3 ACC)

Virginia is in their 15th season under head coach Tony Bennett, one of just 7 active head coaches that have a national championship, and he has Virginia right back at it. They've won seven straight games and are coming off a 60-38 win over Miami at home (Miami was averaging over 80 PPG coming into the game). They started slow, losing 3 of their first 5 ACC games, and had a stretch from December 19 to January 13 where they were 2-4 with wins only over Morgan State and Louisville. Since then, they've been on an absolute tear, winning by an average of 10.7 PPG, and when you consider they play the slowest tempo in the country, 10.7 PPG feels a lot more like 15 PPG. 

Where Virginia has been a little susceptible is away from home. They're 13-0 at home, 2-1 in neutral site games, and 3-4 on the road (wins against Georgia Tech, Louisville, and Clemson). And when they lose, they get absolutely smoked, with all five losses coming by 16 points or more and by an average of 20.8 PPG. 

It's business as usual for Virginia: mover-blocker offense and pack-line defense. For those who want an in-depth review of what those two systems try to accomplish, below are great explanations of each. 

There are four scorers you need to know about this Virginia team: Reece Beekman, Isaac McKneely, Ryan Dunn, and Jacob Groves. 

Beekman is the veteran of the system and has grown a ton as a scorer and playmaker, averaging 13.4 PPG and 6.1 APG. His scoring inside the arc has taken a massive step up, going from 42.8% last season to 49.7% this season. His 3-point shot still isn't great, but it's respectable. Where Beekman makes his money is as an All-ACC Defender, currently leading the ACC in steals at 2.4 per game. He's just your classic veteran Virginia guard who knows the system and knows where everybody is going to be. 

Isaac McKneely is their biggest 3-point threat, averaging 11.6 PPG while shooting 46.6% from 3 on 5.3 3PA. 53.2% of his shots come from behind the arc and has 40 more attempts from deep than anyone else on the team. Florida State would love to run him off the perimeter, but he was 5/10 on 2s in their big road win over Clemson last week. McKneely is capable there, but he's lethal behind the arc. 

Ryan Dunn is their versatile wing who can defend multiple positions (1.6 steals per game), rebound (team-high 7.3 RPG), block shots (2.2 BPG, block rate of 10.2% which is top-20 nationally), and score inside the arc (9.4 PPG, 65.3% on 2PT shots). He's not really a 3-point threat as one of their blockers when he pops, hitting just 6 of his 25 threes this season, but you have to worry about him when he catches it at the elbow or in the post. He's averaging just 4.3 PPG in his last three games, so I'd imagine he's looking to bounce back. 

Jacob Groves is their pop threat from their blockers, shooting 50% from 3 on multiple attempts per game, averaging 8.0 PPG. He's come off the bench during their winning streak to give them some kind of bench threat and it's been working. In his last three games alone, he's averaging 15.7 PPG. 

No one else on the team is averaging more than 4.8 PPG. Andrew Rohde shot 32% from 3 as a freshman at St. Thomas last season but is just at 26% this year. Still, he's a good secondary playmaker, averaging 2.9 APG, and rarely turns the ball over. Leon Bond is a great rebounder but isn't much of a scorer. Jordan Minor has stepped into the starting lineup recently and has been a great screener and rebounder. Dante Harris missed most of the first half of the season and has since returned to give them some defense. Blake Buchanan had a huge moment as a freshman against Florida early on with 18 points but hasn't scored in double-digits since. Like I said, it's really about those top four guys, and none of them are really 1-on-1 scorers. 

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (13-9 Overall, 7-4 ACC)

Boston College runs the pack-line defense, just like Virginia does, so Tuesday night was a good warmup for the style of defense they'd be playing in this one. Obviously, Boston College hasn't mastered it the way Virginia has, but seeing a pack-line the game before is super helpful. You get to play it, go back and see it on film, correct it in practice, and then play it again right after. It's as perfect of a scenario as you can get in ACC play. 

The biggest things Florida State has to correct from Tuesday night are their turnovers and their 3-point shooting, as I don't think a 16.2% turnover rate and shooting 26.3% from 3 wins against Virginia. It's going to be a very low possession game in this one, as each of Virginia's last three games have been under 60 possessions and they average around 60.3 per game, the slowest pace in the country. FSU currently is one of the fastest, averaging 71.2 possessions per game, and hasn't had a game below 66 possessions all year. Virginia has had just four games all year with 66 or more possessions and one of those was an overtime game. Whichever way the possessions lean will likely win this game and the Seminoles have to make the most of every possession. 

I don't know what's going on with Darin Green's free throw shooting recently, but he's just 6/12 from the free throw line since November 29th. He hasn't been getting to the line and when he has gotten there, he hasn't converted at his usual rate (career 77.5% free throw shooter). It almost cost FSU Tuesday night, when he missed the front end of a 1-and-1 with 10 seconds remaining, but they were able to get out with a win. As the most experienced player on the team, he has to be better in those moments. 

Florida State would like their wings, Jamir Watkins and Baba Miller, to have their best performances in this game. The more those two can create and make plays, the more it opens up the rest of the offense. Miller has had four games with 3 or more assists but had 2+ turnovers in three of those games, while Watkins has had 7 games with 3+ assists with 2+ turnovers in five of those. I think both players need to have 3+ assists with at least a 2:1 assists-to-turnover ratio if FSU wants to pull off the upset. Watkins will get his points, but his turnovers and assists will tell a big story. 

Injury Report

Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury. 

Jaylan Gainey left the Boston College game early after going down. His status hasn't been commented on yet. 

Chandler Jackson didn't play in either game on the latest road trip, which was described as a coach's decision. No clarification has been provided since. 

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Jamir Watkins

F: Baba Miller

F: De'Ante Green

Virginia

G: Reece Beekman

G: Isaac McKneely

G: Andrew Rohde

F: Jordan Minor

F: Ryan Dunn

Keys to the Game

Don't Settle For 3s and Be Strong With The Basketball

Virginia's pack-line defense makes you think you have space to shoot 3s, but that's what Virginia wants you to think. There's a reason teams have shot so poorly from 3 against them this season. When they lose, teams do shoot the 3 well, but it's not because they're jacking shots up. They're driving and kicking to open up the 3. 

Jamir Watkins, Jalen Warley, and Primo Spears have to be looking to create for the shooters this game, and with Virginia collapsing on every drive to get hands on the ball (21.6% forced turnover rate), FSU has to be strong with the basketball. Watkins has had at least one turnover in every game this season and 3+ turnovers in 9 games. He can't have that many. FSU is 5-0 when he has 4+ assists, they'd like for this to be one of those games. 

Slip Screens

With the pack-line defense comes a heavy hedge on pick-and-rolls, meaning the defending big is getting out above the screen trying to deter or slow the ball-handler. A way to combat this is slip screens, where the big setting the screen rolls to the basket before the screen is actually set on the ball defender. FSU has implemented slips at times this season, but the guards haven't always seen the open man either slipping or the open man in the corner after their defender sinks in to help the screen. 

Florida State has to see those passes. Virginia makes it hard enough, but they can't make it harder on themselves by not seeing those passes continuously. 

Defensive Patience

Florida State's defense loves taking chances to try and get steals and live ball turnovers. Virginia has only had two games at or above FSU's average forced turnover rate of 21.2%, so while it'd be great if FSU could have their usual defensive performance, you can't bank on it. They'd love to create that chaos and get the number of possessions up, but it's a very disciplined offense they're going up against. 

Virginia's mover-blocker offense is predicated on constant motion while they wait for the defense to make mistakes. The more FSU gets out of position and makes mistakes, the easier it'll be for Virginia to score. I don't think Virginia has the natural scorers to overcome FSU's length 1-on-1, so they will be waiting for FSU to beat themselves. 

Game Prediction

Virginia is favored by just 1 point with a projected total of 125. 

Florida State usually has a great game plan for Virginia, with 6 of the last 10 games between these two finishing within a 5-point margin. I'm not sure FSU quite has the personnel to run what they'd prefer for a game like this. If you go back to the game in 2021 where FSU ran Virginia out of the building 81-60, the 'Noles had 17 assists on 29 made baskets, with just 5 turnovers, and went 13/24 from 3. Rai'Quan Gray being able to be a playmaker from the 4 was such a huge boost to the team against UVA. Baba Miller and Jamir Watkins can be great playmakers and at times we've seen this team be great from 3, but not recently. Florida State's chaos will disrupt Virginia's order, but I think UVA will come away with this one. 

Virginia 60, Florida State 57

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