Game Preview: FSU vs. Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country.

Both teams will be looking to rebound from losses in this one as the two teams get set to play in Tallahassee tonight. You can also argue both teams are suffering from disappointing play compared to the expectations. I really liked Notre Dame coming into the season, but it's hard to argue with losses to Georgia and St Bonaventure. 

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This game will be at 8:30 pm on the ACC Network, live from the Donald L Tucker Center in Tallahassee FL. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Breakdown

This is a series that has been dominated by the home team. No matter who is actually the "better" team, the home team almost always comes out. Notre Dame and Florida State have played 13 times in their brief history, and the home team has won 11 times. Notre Dame has only won once in Tallahassee, and Florida State has only won once in South Bend. Those two wins were by a combined 6 points, so maybe that bodes well for FSU's chances in this one, and it makes sense of the line Vegas set, at Notre Dame -1. 

Notre Dame has struggled recently, dropping three of their last four games, losing to Syracuse, Marquette, and Georgia, and a win over lowly Boston University. They also lost earlier in the season to St Bonaventure, who is a good mid-major, but isn't a powerhouse. They do have one really good win over Michigan State, who they absolutely smoked. The 18-point difference at the end didn't really speak to how much of a blowout it was. 

Leading the way is forward Nate Laszewski, who is averaging 15.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG, and is shooting a blistering 42.2% from deep. He's not much of a defender, and his rebounding is more from his position and not as much effort, and gets less than one offensive rebound per game. He's a mismatch nightmare playing the 5, too quick for bigger post players, too big to play small ball against. It'll be interesting to see how FSU defends against him. 

Cormac Ryan has been huge for Notre Dame, something I didn't quite see coming. You thought Laszewski's 42.2% was impressive? Ryan is shooting 45.1% from deep, and 55% of his total shots have come from 3. He's actually second on the team in assists at 2.2 per game, and is a sneaky rebounder despite being 195 pounds. For the season, he's averaging 12.7 PPG and 4.4 RPG. 

You though Ryan's 45.1% from 3 was impressive? Dane Goodwin is shooting 47.4% from distance, though it's not on as many attempts (lowest 3PA per game among starters for ND). He hasn't been quite as good this season, having just as many minutes and shot attempts as last year, but not making them at the same clip so far, and is fouling more than he has in his career. I was expecting him to take a big step forward, and he's instead just sidestepped. As of now, he's at 12 PPG, 4.7 RPG, and 1.9 APG. 

JJ Starling is single-handedly keeping this team from being 40% from 3 as a team, as he's shooting just 30.2% from 3 on almost 4 attempts per game. He hasn't been facilitating like I thought he would, but is doing a good job at attacking the interior, shooting 48.8% on 2s, and takes more shots than anyone else on the team, though he's just 3rd in scoring at 12.6 PPG and 1.1 APG. 

Trey Wertz is shooting 64% of his shots from 3, but is making them at just 34% for now. He shot around 40% from 3 his last two seasons at Santa Clara and last season at Notre Dame, but the shots haven't been falling so far. He's still not someone you can leave open, but it is interesting given Notre Dame's struggles as a team. 

The Irish really only have two bench players: Ven-Allen Lubin, who leads the team in offensive rebounds despite 18 minutes per game, and Marcus Hammond, who has only played in the last four games so far this season, but was a good player at Niagara. 

Of all things about this team, no team "allows" teams to shoot a higher free throw percentage against them than Notre Dame. Teams shoot 78.8% from the stripe against them, which is all luck, Notre Dame literally has zero control over it. I just found it funny. 

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown

The 'Noles are coming off of a disappointing defensive performance against St Johns, allowing 1.29 points per possession, 23 total free throw attempts, 13 offensive rebounds, and only forced 11 turnovers in a 72 possession game. Joel Soriano just did what he wanted down low with 23 points, 12 rebounds, and 14 free throw attempts. Andre Curbello and Posh Alexander had just a combined 4 turnovers, despite being some of the more erratic ball handlers in college basketball, so this was not the result FSU wanted. 

What they did get were two incredible offensive performances out of Darin Green Jr and Matthew Cleveland. Green set career highs with 30 points and 8 made 3s (on just 11 attempts), just an incredible shooting performance, and just confirms my belief of him being the best shooter Leonard Hamilton has ever had. He's up to 45.9% from 3. Cleveland also had a career-high in both points and rebounds, finishing with 23 and 13. The fact two players set career highs in points and the team still lost by 14 is an insane statement and speaks to how bad the defense was. 

I really think they need to play Chandler Jackson and Tom House more. Jackson just has that energy and want to that you need out of freshmen. Despite playing just 9 minutes, he turned in an offensive rating of 124. Give him at least 15 minutes, I think he's going to give you good minutes. And House just gives you the spacing the offense needs, someone outside of just Darin Green that can light up the net. 

Injury Report

Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with an ACL injury. 

Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury. 

Baba Miller is suspended for a few more games due to the NCAA. 

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Caleb Mills

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Matthew Cleveland

C: Naheem McLeod

Notre Dame

G: JJ Starling

G: Trey Wertz

G: Dane Goodwin

G: Cormac Ryan

F: Nate Laszewski

Keys to the Game

3-Point Defense

Notre Dame is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, and have one of the biggest mismatches in the country in Nate Laszewski. His ability to stretch the floor may provide issues for a Florida State team that can struggle with talented 3-point shooter. As a team, Notre Dame is shooting a blistering 38.6% from 3 and Laszewski is shooting 42% from deep from his 5 spot. I'm curious to see if FSU tries matchup zone in this one to keep their bigs from defending the perimeter more than they have to. 

Defend Without Fouling

Notre Dame has lost three of their last four games to Syracuse, Marquette, and Georgia in large part to their inability to get to the free throw line, just 23 total attempts in those three games. They're talented shooters once they get there, as they're above 80% as a team, so you can't let them get to the free throw line a lot in this game. Keep them below 10 attempts and you'll have a solid chance. 

Naheem McLeod and Cameron Corhen

These two are going to be key on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they're going to have to be strong on the perimeter and not allow too many open 3s. Whether it's switching onto the perimeter or defending Laszewski, if they can perform well when being attacked, it's going to be a big sign of how the game will go. Notre Dame is also a really bad offensive rebounding team, so these two (and Matthew Cleveland) will be key in making sure they don't get any unnecessary or untimely boards. Also, Laszewski is light, bully him on the inside. Despite being 6'10", he's blocking less than a shot per game. Go at him. 

Game Prediction

Notre Dame is just favored by 1 point, with an over/under of 142.5. 

The Irish have not been playing well recently, but they don't turn the ball over and are fantastic from 3. That's a recipe for disaster for FSU's defense. 

Notre Dame 81 FSU 75

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