Game Preview: FSU vs USC Upstate

Can the Seminoles make it two in a row?

Florida State is on a one game winning streak!! Hooray!!! With a serious chance to make it two in a row tonight against USC Upstate, who is on a three game winning streak of their own. These are two teams that grade out similarly in the NET rankings, with Florida State sitting at 282 and USC Upstate at 297. I like the way FSU has been playing recently, so we’ll see if it can carry over to this week. 

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This game will be at 8:30 p.m. on the ACC Network, live from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, FL. 

USC Upstate Spartans Breakdown

The Spartans started off their season rough, losing by almost 50 to Duke before rebounding to respectable losses to Clemson, South Carolina, and Air Force. They’ve been able to beat all the smaller schools they’ve played, so they’re no one to scoff at. And while they might have lost badly to Duke, they were without a couple of their main scorers. 

Jordan Gainey was good for them a season ago, and has stepped up big time for Upstate this season, averaging 17 PPG while having similar shooting splits from last year; 46% FG, 41.7% 3PT, 87% FT. He’s a dynamic scorer that Florida State is going to have to account for, and I imagine they’re going to try and take the ball out of his hands as much as possible, especially with him coming off of a 28-point game. 

Trae Broadnax handles the playmaking responsibilities for the most part, with the help of Gainey. He’s averaging 3.4 assists to 2.0 turnovers, all while still scoring his fair share with 10 PPG. Both Broadnax and Gainey have good size as guards at 6’4”, but I still expect FSU to pressure them heavy up and down the court. 

Mysta Goodloe played in his first game of the season last time out against SC State, scoring 20 points with 11 coming from the free throw line. He’s a career 5.2 PPG scorer, 29% 3PT shooter, and 74% from the FT line. I’m inclined to believe this performance is an outlier, but we’ll see how it plays out tonight. 

While their guards are pretty big, they don’t have much size on the frontcourt, with projected starter Khydarius Smith standing at 6’8”, and key back up Ahmir Langlais at 6’8” as well. Langlais is a great rebounder, FSU is going to have to get a body on him at all times when a shot goes up. 

Justin Bailey and Floyd Rideau are both shooters to keep an eye on, both shooting about 40% from deep on a combined 6.5 attempts per game. Can imagine they’re going to try the same drive and kick strategy Stetson was using against FSU to generate some shots. 

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown

The ‘Noles had a great showing against Louisville on Saturday, though Louisville is absolutely horrendous. I think if Louisville could play themselves, they’d still find a way to lose. Nonetheless, FSU forced 16 turnovers, scored 15 fast break points (holding Louisville to 2), won the rebounding battle 42-32, scored 26 bench points, and shooting 45% from the floor and 37% from 3. If only they could play Louisville every game.

Caleb Mills and Cameron Corhen are coming off their best games of the season, as Mills went for 16 points and 5 rebounds, while Corhen had 15 points and 5 rebounds. Mills just seems a little more comfortable as a 2 when he can just focus on scoring and doesn’t have to play make as much. I imagine we’ll see a lot of it until Baba Miller returns to the lineup and bumps everyone up a spot. 

The rebounding effort was good to see on Saturday night, with five players grabbing five or more rebounds, topping off at Matthew Cleveland with 8 rebounds. They’re going to need more of that effort going forward. 

Injury Report

Cam’Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.

Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with an ACL injury.

Baba Miller is still suspended by the NCAA until January 11.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Caleb Mills

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Matthew Cleveland

C: Naheem McLeod

USC Upstate

G: Jordan Gainey

G: Trae Broadmax

G: Nick Alves

G: Floyd Rideau

F: Khydarius Smith

Keys to the Game

Defend Without Fouling

USC Upstate has made a living at the free throw line across their three-game winning streak, shooting 88 total free throws making 66 of them. If they could make more of their free throws, they’d be an even better team, but they’re at least doing a good job of getting there. FSU has done a decent job of defending without fouling recently, but it’s going to be put to the test this game. 

3-Point Defense

USC Upstate has been real streaky so far this season from 3, hitting 8/21 from deep last game against SC State, but was just 1/3 the game before that. No better time to get hot from distance like playing Florida State, who is allowing teams to shoot 23 times per game from distance and making 7.5 of them. Teams are firing off on FSU, just with mixed results to my surprise. Can’t let these teams that aren’t as good hit shots they usually don’t hit. 

Turnover Battle

USC Upstate has turned teams over 57 times in the last three games, while FSU is turning it over 13 times a game on average. They’ve shown some tendencies of careless turnovers, especially in live ball situations, so they’re going to need to protect the basketball and get as many quality shots as possible. 

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 15.5 with an over/under of 145.

I’m cautiously optimistic with the way FSU has played recently, but I’m still going to take Upstate’s points in this with an FSU win.

Florida State 81 USC Upstate 72

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