Game Preview: Stetson
Florida State Basketball is finally back in action tonight as they get set to take on the Stetson Hatters, based out of DeLand, Florida. It's been a tumultuous offseason for the 'Noles, so it's going to be interesting to see how the team performs without their normal depth.
READ MORE: Recruits react to Florida State's run-away rivalry win over Miami
This game will tip off at 7pm in the Donald L Tucker Center on RSN/ACCNX.
Stetson Hatters Breakdown
It was only 4 years ago when Stetson was one of the worst teams in Division 1 basketball, winning only 7 games in the 2018-19 season. They've recovered just slightly, but it's going to be tough for them to keep pace in this one. The Hatters lose over 40 PPG from their top 3 scorers a season ago, and there's no one on the roster that has averaged more than 7.2 PPG in D1 competition (Sam Peek averaged 17.9 PPG for Wesleyan last season, a D3 program).
They do possess a couple of solid shooters who are hoping to shine in bigger chances in Wheza Panzo, who in limited opportunities a season ago at almost 39%, Peek shot 35.2% last season, Alex Crawford shot above 40% in less than one attempt per game, and Jalen Blackmon shot 35% for Grand Canyon. Their biggest issue in the past has been taking care of the ball, and that's going to be put to the test against a versatile and huge Florida State team.
If they're going to stay in this game, it's going to be because of offensive rebounding. FSU let Newberry snag 19 offensive rebounds, which is simply unacceptable for an exhibition game. Stetson grabbed over 10 per game last season, and have some guys in Josh Smith, Alvun Tumblin, and Mahamadou Diawara that are capable rebounders, and are looking to prove something against this FSU team.
This should be a solid defensive team, with a whole bunch of guys on the roster being between 6'7" and 6'11", but I'm not sure they quite have the athleticism or scoring punches to keep up with Florida State, as banged up as FSU is.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown
The hits didn't stop coming for Florida State this offseason. After a season marred with injury, they came into the offseason with John Butler unexpectedly declaring for the NBA Draft. The player they brought in to fill his role, Baba Miller, was wrongfully suspended for the first half of the season by the NCAA for travel benefits two years ago.
A few weeks before that, one of the two transfers they brought in, two-time Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year Jaylan Gainey, tore his ACL in practice and will miss the season. Everyone around the team was devastated by this news, as he was someone who could defend all 5 positions and was as quick as anyone on the roster as a true big man. He'll be missed, but there are players that can help relieve these two losses.
Coach Hamilton has been very complimentary of both Naheem McLeod and freshman Cameron Corhen this offseason. McLeod looks a little strong and quicker, and seems laser focused this season, while Corhen has a very intriguing game as a big man, one reminiscent of Mfiondu Kabengele, and has earned rave reviews from those around the program for the work he has put in.
This season is going to come down to the play of the guards though, and how much of a step Jalen Warley has taken. He's put in a tremendous amount of work this offseason, while Caleb Mills will help relieve him in ball-handling, and UCF transfer sharp shooter Darin Green Jr will open the floor up for everyone.
The biggest thing everyone is looking for though is seeing how much progress Matthew Cleveland has made with his jump shot. I have my doubts as we stand right now, but he's as talented as anyone in the ACC if it can come together. He really just needs to be confident more than anything.
Injury Report
Florida State ended last season banged up, and they're starting much the same.
Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with a knee injury.
Chandler Jackson is out with a thumb injury.
Jeremiah Bembry is out for the foreseeable future with what's being reported as a back injury.
De'Ante Green is out indefinitely as he recovers from an ACL injury in high school.
Baba Miller is out until Jan 11th due to a suspension from the NCAA.
Projected Starters
Florida State
G: Jalen Warley
G: Caleb Mills
G: Matthew Cleveland
F: Cam'Ron Fletcher
C: Naheem McLeod
Stetson
G: Stephan Swanson
G: Jalen Blackmon
G: Wheza Panzo
F: Alvin Trumblin
C: Mahamadou Diawara
Keys to the Game
Create Turnovers
Stetson averaged 13 turnovers per game last season, but Georgia Tech, FAU, and FIU forced them into either 15 or 16 turnovers in games last season. FSU has just as great of an opportunity to create turnovers as anyone, and even with their limited depth, they are going to try and create havoc by picking players up full court.
Rebound
Florida State was a good offensive rebounding team and a below average defensive rebounding team a season ago, and they let Newberry hang around because of Newberry's offensive rebounding. Don't let Stetson hang around and finish defensive possessions with rebounds, as they averaged over 10 per game last year. Keep them at 7 offensive rebounds or fewer.
Stop the Three
Stetson was about average shooting the 3 last season at 35%, but it seemed like every team's best shooting performance came against the 'Noles a season ago. The Hatters have four players that shot at 35% or better from 3, including Wheza Panzo, who hit them at a 39% clip on 3 attempts per game in limited minutes; he's due for an increased role this year.
Game Prediction
Florida State sits as 19.5-point favorites, with an over/under of 142.5.
The 'Noles should win this comfortably, but Stetson possesses some length up and down the roster that could provide some issues. Nonetheless, this will be FSU by double digits.
FSU 79-65
READ MORE: Florida State leaves RB Cedric Baxter Jr. with a decision to make
Stick with NoleGameday for more coverage of Florida State basketball throughout the season.
