Meeting the 2021-22 Florida State Basketball Roster: Bigs

We finish off our roster preview with the big men.

We’re a little under two months out from Florida State Basketball returning, and with the schedule being announced, what better time to get acquainted with this year’s version of the team than right now? In the past, I’ve split this up into two separate articles with one highlighting the returners and the other focusing on the incoming talent, but this year I’ll be splitting it into three parts: Guards, Wings, and Bigs, all of which we will cover over the span. The bigs are pretty self-explanatory, this is anyone that will spend time playing at the center spot this season for Florida State.

If you have missed the last two articles about the rest of the roster, you can read about the Guards and the Wings.

This team is losing an enormous amount of production from last year’s Sweet 16 team: 65.7% of scoring is gone, as well as 70% of assists, 55.1% of rebounds, 60.4% of steals, and 59% of blocks. Some of it was expected. MJ Walker was a senior and Scottie Barnes was a highly touted 5-star prospect who ended up becoming yet another top-5 pick for the Seminoles. A few losses were unexpected. Balsa Koprivica shocked a lot of people by declaring early, RaiQuan Gray turned an excellent season into being drafted, while Sardaar Calhoun and Nathanael Jack transferred to Texas Tech and Cleveland State, respectively. If Gray and/or Koprivica come back for another season, you’re looking at a team with very few weaknesses and a ton of experience, but they were both drafted in the NBA, and FSU is now looking at a guard-heavy team, which is almost a complete turnaround from last season.

Associate Head Coach Stan Jones has been one of the best developers of big men during his time in Tallahassee, especially recently. Mfiondu Kabengele and Balsa Koprivica, have been drafted into the NBA while Dominik Olejniczak, Boris Bojanovsky, and Christ Koumadje have been enjoying professional ventures overseas. The loss of Koprivica was a big blow, his departure was a big surprise to many fans, and his progression by the end of the season was apparent to anyone who watched. With another season, he might’ve been a first-rounder.

Alas, Koprivica moved to the NBA and FSU is now in a situation with a ton of inexperience at a position they require a lot out of.

Returning Players

#11 Tanor Ngom, Senior

Last Season: 2.4 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 0.0 APG, 0.1 SPG, 0.6 BPG 57.6/0.0/89.5

What exactly is Florida State going to get from Ngom this season? When the Seminoles came out of the first COVID pause in January, Ngom looked like a much better, more confident player with two games in four with multiple blocks and only missed three total shots the entire month. It looked like the team’s time off was exactly what he needed to learn the system and know how to operate inside of it. Once we got into late February and into tournament play however, his performances significantly dropped. While he did have a block in each of his last five games, he also had 11 personal fouls in a total of 35 minutes in those five games. A foul every three minutes is not what Florida State needs out of its centers. Especially in a league with Armando Bacot, Mark Williams, Dawson Garcia, Paul Atkinson, and Keve Aluma.

On the other hand, Ngom has a really smooth shooting stroke for someone of his size. He was 17 for 19 on the season from the free throw line (his 89.5% was the best on the team), and I’m confident he could expand his game to 18-20 feet if it was necessary. He shot three 3s last season (all unnecessary), so he certainly has the confidence in himself for it. And for someone that’s only been playing organized basketball for a few years, the progress he continues to make is remarkable. Hopefully, a full off-season of training and learning the off-season is beneficial to him, because Florida State is going to need him to be a steady hand.

Projected Season Stats: 4.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 0.2 APG, 0.3 SPG, 1.0 BPG 51.5/0.0/82.5

#10 Malik Osborne, RS-Senior

Last Season: 5.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.4 BPG 42.2/36.5/83.8

It’s kind of hard to believe this is Osborne’s senior season in Tallahassee. I remember when he first transferred in from Rice, and the workouts he’d have to do while the team was on road trips during the 2018-19 season. He paid it off in a big way in the 2019-20 season, thriving as a small-ball 5 all season. Last season, Florida State moved him out on the perimeter as a 4, which is what the plan had been when he first got to FSU. From the eye test, you could tell he wasn’t quite comfortable playing the 4, and there were definitely times he struggled, especially early on. Through the first 8 games, he was only averaging 3.1 PPG shooting 30% from the floor and 9.1% from 3. He was much better in the final 16 games, averaging 7.3 PPG shooting 46.8% from the floor and 43.9% from 3. If that version of Malik Osborne shows up this season, Florida State won’t have too much to worry about with him.

Despite two different positions in two straight seasons, his statistics from 19-20 to 20-21 hardly changed, just look at these advanced statistics via KenPom.

The fact his second best statistical comparison for the 20-21 season was his 19-20 version of himself is almost impressive. The only big difference was block rate, which makes sense, given he wasn’t around the rim nearly as much. His true shooting percentage went up, but so did his turnover percentage (which also makes sense given he’s handling the ball more). The biggest improvement was his free throw shooting. A 24.8% jump is incredibly impressive.

I would love for Florida State to split his time at the 4 and the 5 throughout the season, even though he’s your likely starter at the 4. What Osborne brings is best suited as a small-ball 5: pick-and-pop ability, toughness, hustle, shot-blocking, etc. If they plan to keep him as a full-time 4, he’s going to have to improve as a ball-handler and operate in pick-and-rolls. I’ve learned to never doubt Osborne, and he’s going to be successful no matter where Florida State plays him this season (hopefully it’s for more than 20 minutes per game). And while it’s great that he’s been consistent the last two seasons, FSU will need him to pick up his scoring, similar to what he was doing at the end of last season.

Season Stats Projection: 7.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.6 BPG 47.0/37.5/82.0

#15 Quincy Ballard, Sophomore

Last Season: 1.2 PPG, 0.7 RPG, 0.1 APG, 0.3 BPG 71.4/NA/28.6

I’m really high on what Ballard can become. He’s an uber-athletic big man at 7 feet and 240 pounds, he really just looked lost many times last season. Granted, he only played a total of 62 minutes all of last season. He’s a developmental prospect that hopefully we’ll look back at in a couple of seasons and see a player that has blossomed into a great rim-running, shot-blocking big. I think his abilities are compromised when he’s asked to step away from the basket and guard on the perimeter (we’ll talk about this more at the end), and he’s going to have to improve his free throw shooting if he wants to stay on the floor.

This season though, I think it’s going to be very similar to what we saw last year as he continues to improve and learn the system. If he’s seeing more than 10 minutes per game this season, it’s either because he’s made MASSIVE strides or the people in front of him are playing poorly and the staff is trying something to shake things up.

Projected Season Stats: 1.7 PPG, 1.1 RPG, 0.1 APG, 0.0 SPG, 0.3 BPG 66.7/NA/40.0

Incoming Players

#24 Naheem McLeod, Junior

Last Season (Chipola College): 5.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 0.1 APG, 0.3 SPG, 1.5 BPG 69.4/NA/60.3

Despite being listed as a junior on FSU’s official roster, McLeod will have three years of eligibility in college basketball. He was supposed to join Florida State for the 2019-20 season, but academic issues forced him out of Florida State and into Chipola College (JUCO) for the 2020-21 season. This is another raw, but talented prospect waiting to find his potential. He has great hands, good shot-blocking instincts, and has the ability to stretch out to 15-feet. What McLeod will have to improve is his focus.

He likely won’t play much this season either, although he has been in contact with FSU’s coaches for three years now, learning the ins and outs of their system. Knowledge of the system shouldn’t be the issue, but he didn’t exactly light the world on fire last year. Usually, high major bound JUCO players are able to dominate the competition. His role was to set screens and roll hard to suck the defense in, when in reality he only shot the ball about 3 times a game despite playing about 16 minutes per contest and starting 19 of them. It just wasn’t his role to score, and it likely won’t be his role here either for this season.

Season Stats Projection: 2.3 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 0.1 APG, 0.1 SPG, 0.8 BPG

#22 John Butler, Freshman

Last Season (High School): 20.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 3.0 BPG

Of all the players on the roster, Butler is arguably the biggest unknown. Despite standing at 7-foot-1, he only weighs in at 190 pounds and likely projects as a 4 in the future, much in the mold of a guy like Kristaps Porzingis. His handle for his size is honestly incredible, he can shoot the 3 fairly well, has solid athleticism...the ability for him to grab a rebound and immediately push the break is rare for someone of his size. He just has to put on weight, he’s going to get pushed around in the ACC. A couple of conversations I’ve had with people around the program love the potential he has, as well as the progress he’s already made since he got to Tallahassee.

It’s just tough to see where he fits in his first season. Is he playing backup minutes at the 4 or the 5? Is he a guy that’s going to be able to score at ease because of his height, or someone that will be pushed around because of his weight? It’s probably going to be a little bit of everything, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the staff keeps him on ice for most of this season as he bulks up.

Season Stats Projection: 3.1 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 0.3 APG, 0.1 SPG, 0.7 BPG 41.5/33.3/77.8

Overall

This group has talent, but very little experience, outside of Osborne. Even Ngom as a senior, this will only be his second season of Division 1 college basketball. FSU requires a lot out of their bigs, especially on defense. They’re calling out screens, telling the guards how to play the screen (switch, go over, go under, which direction screen is coming, etc), keeping an eye on things happening on the weakside for cuts… there’s a lot going on for FSU’s centers on defense.

I’m hoping that FSU moves away from switching everything this season, unless Osborne or Butler is at the 5. With Ngom, Ballard, and McLeod, what they’re best at is protecting the rim, they shouldn’t be drawn away from the basket unless the guard gets hit hard on the screen, then switch on emergency. It shouldn’t be an every ball-screen thing. FSU allowed 0.815 PPP on PnR Ball Handler situations (277th Nationally), and that has a lot to do with bigs switching onto guards. I get why they did it last season with an extremely shortened offseason, they chose to work on offense more and roll with what they had on defense from the year prior. With more true centers on the roster this year and a full offseason, it’s just time to go back to switching 1 through 4 and letting the 5 hedge or drop.

Offensively, no one will have plays run through them as much as Koprivica did last season, and most of these guys have similar skillsets. Get them in ball screens, have them roll hard to the rim, and seal off the defender as deep in the paint as they can. Try and get as many easy catches near the rim as possible, I don’t think you’ll see nearly as many post entries with the big set 10-12 feet away from the basket like we did last year since Koprivica was fluid and mobile enough to make it work.

This wraps up our roster preview, next will be a depth chart preview, followed by strengths and weaknesses of the team.