Game Preview: FSU Basketball at LSU Tigers

Florida State starts a challenging week on the road for the ACC/SEC Challenge.

Austin Veazey | 17 Hours Ago

The Florida State Seminoles host the Hofstra Pride for a men’s basketball game at the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center on Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024. / Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Florida State Seminoles

Florida State has started off well, sitting at 7-1 through eight games, their best start since the 2019-20 season. Their schedule has been light to this point but now comes a big week to see what this team is made of, with two games on the road.

The first of the two games comes at LSU, which is the Seminoles' first true road game of the season, in the ACC/SEC Challenge. It's the second year of the challenge that replaced the ACC/Big 10 Challenge. Florida State should've won last year at home against Georgia but blew a massive lead late in the game and lost on a last-second shot. Can this year be any different?

This game will be at 9 p.m. EST on the SEC Network, live from the Pete Maravich Assembly Center in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Louisiana State Tigers Breakdown (6-1)

LSU has had a strong start to their third season under Matt McMahon, who has improved every year in Baton Rouge. He was previously the head coach at Murray State, including when FSU smoked his Racers and Ja Morant 90-62. I doubt he's forgotten that game.

They've picked up two solid wins over Kansas State and a triple overtime thriller over UCF, with their only loss being to a good Pittsburgh team. But they've also had a few games that were closer than they needed to be against Alabama State and Charleston Southern. They've got the vibe of a team that gets up for big teams but will falter against some lesser opponents.

McMahon has his squad playing great defense, ranking in the top 40 nationally in adjusted efficiency, effective FG% allowed, 2PT% allowed, and 3PT% allowed. Offensively, they've been fine but not spectacular, shooting just 31.6% from three. LSU has turned it over at a higher rate than most, with teams able to get a lot of live-ball turnovers, something that will favor FSU. Their performance on the glass could swing this game; they have one of the best offensive rebounding rates in the country and one of the worst defensive rebounding rates.

The two perimeter players to worry about are Jordan Sears and Camryn Carter. Sears is a small guard, generously listed at 5'11", and small guards can have issues against the Seminoles' size. But he and Carter are combining to average 31.4 PPG while being two of the three players to shoot better than 25% from three-point range while averaging more than one attempt per game, as they're both just above 40%. Carter is averaging nearly twice as many turnovers as assists, while Sears is nearly 1:1.

Carter started the season hot from three but has made just seven of his last 25 attempts (28%) from deep over his last four games. Sears has been the more consistent shooter recently.

Dji Bailey is the third starting guard, and he's the best playmaker of the bunch, averaging a 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He's never really been a scorer in his career, with his 6.7 FGA this season being a career-high, and he's a complete non-shooter from the perimeter. FSU will need to watch for him crashing the offensive glass.

Jalen Reed is a strong interior scorer, shooting nearly 60% from the floor, and he gets to the charity stripe at a high rate. He's averaging 12.4 PPG and leads the team in rebounding. Reed is another guy who isn't much of a shooter, only attempting four three-pointers this season.

Vyctorious Miller is their best bench threat and is also scoring in double figures at 11.1 PPG. The freshman from Los Angeles is a great slasher but has struggled with his perimeter shot early, shooting just 25% from deep on more than three attempts per game. A lot of LSU's per 40 stats favor Miller, as he's playing less than 20 minutes per game right now.

Corey Chest has started at center the last few games and is a strong rebounder, but he doesn't scare me as a scorer. They had started Robert Miller III in the first five games, who was a complete non-factor.

That's really everyone you need to worry about. If Florida State contains Sears and Carter, they'll win this game.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (7-1)

This is Florida State's first true road game of the season. They say defense travels, and they've been one of the best defenses in the country to this point, having a top 25 defense nationally in overall efficiency, forced turnover rate, 3-point defense, steal rate, and block rate. If their recent trend of fouling less becomes consistent, this will be a dangerous defense.

The two biggest things I'm watching are FSU's three-point shooting and Malique Ewin against better competition.

Florida State started the season off poorly from three, going just 13/62 (21%) in their first three games. In the five games since, they've hit at least seven threes in every game, shooting 41/104 (39.4%). If those recent five games are what this FSU team will be throughout the year, that opens up a lot of things for this team, but I'm still skeptical about whether it's real. This is a great test against an LSU defense that has been great at guarding the three-point line.

Malique Ewin has been the team's biggest bright spot over the last four games, averaging 14.3 PPG while shooting 68.6% from the floor. After struggling in his first four games, we're seeing the talent he has come together, but we need to see it against better competition. LSU will be a good test for him, and if he has a similar stat line to how he's played recently, I think it'd be hard for FSU to lose.

There is some history going against FSU, though, as Leonard Hamilton has struggled in out-of-conference true road games against Power Five Opponents. Excluding Florida and postseason games, Coach Hamilton is 5-14 in power non-conference games on the road, with only one of those wins coming since 2005 (at Rutgers 2017; I was at that game working for the team then). It can be hard to win in environments you're not familiar with, but if FSU wants to succeed this season, they have to win a game like this.

Projected Starters

LSU

G: Jordan Sears
G: Camryn Carter
G: Dji Bailey
F: Jalen Reed
F: Corey Chest

Florida State

G: Chandler Jackson
G: Bostyn Holt
G: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Keys to the Game

Ball Pressure

LSU's guards had some issues in their last game against Northwestern State against their switching perimeter defense/matchup zone, especially in the first half. If they had issues against that, they could be in for a world of trouble against Florida State's defensive pressure. LSU has had a turnover rate north of 20% four times this season, including a 22.2% rate in their loss to Pittsburgh. Any success FSU has will start there.

But the same goes for the other side of the ball. LSU has forced a turnover rate north of 19% four times this season, and FSU has been a little careless with the basketball at times, with three games of a turnover rate north of 20%. Whichever team takes better care of the basketball is going to have a big advantage in this game.

Free Throws

Both of these teams are averaging over 23 free throw attempts per game, with LSU shooting a little over 70% and FSU shooting a little under. Florida State, in particular, has been getting to the free throw line plenty, sitting with one of the 25 best free throw rates in the country.

This game has the potential to be a defensive slugfest as both defenses have strong three-point defenses and top-40 defensive efficiency rankings. The best way to break that is by getting to the free-throw line.

Offensive Rebounds

LSU gets after it hard on the offensive glass, bringing down more than 36% of their misses, one of the best rates in the country. FSU's defense has been... fine... with defensive rebounds, but they were destroyed by Florida, who brought down more than 46% of their misses. I imagine LSU will try to replicate that success.

But on the flip side, LSU's defense has been horrific about finishing possessions with a rebound, allowing an offense rebound rate of 34.1%. We've seen FSU start to take advantage of some opportunities on the offensive glass, even adjusting to how many people they send to the glass from game to game. If they can get above 30% of their misses, that'll help them a lot.

Game Prediction

LSU is favored by 3.5 points with an over/under of 148.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

This is going to be a really interesting matchup between two strong defensive teams that have some offensive efficiencies. This would basically be a pick-em on a neutral floor, and I think that's about right, given what we've seen from both teams. FSU has historically not played well against Power Non-Conference opponents on the road under Coach Hamilton, so I'll take the history here and pick LSU, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Seminoles win.

LSU 71, Florida State 67

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

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