Game Preview: FSU Basketball at Miami Hurricanes

Florida State looks to continue their recent domination over their rivals in south Florida

Austin Veazey | 20 Hours Ago

Jan 17, 2024; Coral Gables, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes guard Matthew Cleveland (0) dribbles the basketball against the Florida State Seminoles during the second half at Watsco Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

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The Florida State Seminoles picked up their first ACC win of the season on Saturday against the Syracuse Orange at home and now hit the road to play their rivals: the Miami Hurricanes. Miami is going through as tumultuous of a season as anyone could imagine, sitting with the worst record of any power conference team and their head coach stepped down after Christmas, a year and a half removed from a run to the Final Four.

FSU has won 12 of the last 13 games of this rivalry dating back to the 2017-18 season and 14 of the last 16 dating back a season further. Even with Miami making a Final Four, an Elite Eight, and two other NCAA Tournament appearances in that time frame, the Seminoles have been a thorn in their side. Will FSU be able to continue their domination over the 'Canes?

This game will be at 7 p.m. EST on the ACC Network, live from the Watsco Center in Coral Gables, Florida.

Miami Hurricanes Breakdown (4-10 Overall, 0-3 ACC)

It's hard to describe the depths of hell that Miami has fallen into since making the Final Four in 2023, but I'm going to try. They are 19-27 since then, including 4-20 in their last 24 games. If that isn't enough, they've lost 16 consecutive games against power conference opponents. Then, head coach Jim Larranaga stepped down the day after Christmas, citing exhaustion and NIL as reasons for stepping down and leaving the program in the hands of Bill Courtney.

Expecting Courtney to improve anything is probably a mistake. In six years as the head coach of Cornell, he went 60-113, including a 2-26 season in year four, and never had a winning season. And he took over the program immediately after they made three straight NCAA Tournaments. In his six seasons there, Cornell was 0-19 against power conference opponents. He just doesn't have a history of winning big games.

And for a few additional hits, Nijel Pack, the lone player remaining who was on the 2023 Final Four team, hasn't played with a foot/ankle injury since early December, and it wouldn't surprise me if he missed the rest of the season. Four-star freshman Isaiah Johnson-Arigu also just hit the transfer portal earlier this week.

They're this bad despite having one of the best offenses in the country. They're in the top 40 in offensive efficiency, in the top 10 in two-point percentage, in the top 25 in free-throw percentage, and in the top 70 in turnover rate. Despite shooting well from the free-throw line, though, they don't get there all that often, ranking in the 300s in free-throw rate.

The reason for their poor play has to do with the worst defense of any power conference team. They're 287th in KenPom's defensive efficiency entering Wednesday's games. The next lowest power conference team is Cal at 249th. So it isn't even really close.

Teams are shooting 37.4% from three, 53.1% from two, and 73.9% from the free-throw line against the 'Canes, all among the worst marks in the country. They also force a historically low turnover rate. Dating back to KenPom's beginning in 1997, Miami has never had a lower forced turnover rate than its current 15.8%. They do okay on the defensive glass and block an average amount of shots, but overall, it's a porous defense.

Nijel Pack was leading the 'Canes in scoring at 13.9 PPG. With him gone, it's old friend-turned-foe Matthew Cleveland as the primary option. He's averaging just 12.7 PPG and 4.6 RPG (both his lowest since his freshman season), but is up a career-high 44.4% from three-point range. He still doesn't love to play against physical teams and can be pushed off his spot pretty easily, and he rarely cares about defense anymore. This will be one of the games he likely does care.

Lynn Kidd left Virginia Tech for Miami this offseason and has been... fine? He's averaging 11.3 PPG and 7.4 RPG, usually having the ball run through him in the post, as he's a good playmaker for a big. He's not Malique Ewin, which will be a fascinating matchup. In Miami's last game against Virginia Tech, the Hokies completely took him out of the game by double-teaming him, but I'm not sure that's a strategy FSU will want to try.

Everyone else is inconsistent. Jalil Bethea is a future NBA talent and is not afraid to shoot from well beyond three-point range, and he played well in their last game, scoring 15 points against Virginia Tech. But he does almost nothing besides score.

Jalen Blackmon has seen his playing time yanked around. He was averaging 11.6 PPG in 25 minutes in the first eight games of the season but is down to 5.5 PPG in 18 minutes over the last six. If you remove his 16-point performance against Mount Saint Mary's, he's down to 3.4 PPG, and he was scoreless against Tennessee and Boston College.

With Blackmon currently on the bench, Miami has started three-star freshman Divine Ugochukwu. Over his last four games, all starts, he's averaging a solid 4.5 PPG and 3.0 APG. How he plays against FSU's ball pressure will be interesting to watch.

Brandon Johnson probably hasn't scored as much as they thought when they brought him in from ECU, but he's a good rebounder and a decent passer. The same goes for A.J. Staton-McCray, who came in from Samford, as he's been pulled out of the starting lineup recently. Austin Swartz is a fearless shooter capable of pulling up from deep (ignore his 24.4% shooting). Paul Djobet is best in transition as a wing.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (10-4 Breakdown, 1-2 ACC)

Florida State picked up their first ACC win of the season with a 90-74 victory over Syracuse on Saturday. They were able to overcome some tough threes made by the Orange using a relentless attack to the rim, getting to the free-throw line, and making enough threes to make that stat competitive. They may have to do something similar in this game against a high-powered Miami offense.

Taylor Bol Bowen had arguably his best game ever on Saturday, finishing with 14 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, and three blocks. Florida State needs a third scorer to step up beside Malique Ewin and Jamir Watkins, whether that's Bol Bowen or Daquan Davis (who had 18 points against 'Cuse), if they could consistently produce at a high level, it'd be massive.

FSU is searching for their first road win of the season after falling apart late against LSU and NC State. Part of that was due to Malique Ewin fouling out against the Wolfpack, but this team needs to prove they can win on the road. Playing a team that is 4-20 in their last 24 games is a good chance to do that. I expect Ewin to have a MASSIVE game on Wednesday if he stays out of foul trouble.

Projected Starters

Miami

G: Divine Ugochukwu
G: Jahlil Bethea
G: Matthew Cleveland
F: Brandon Johnson
F: Lynn Kidd

Florida State

G: Daquan Davis
G: Chandler Jackson
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Keys to the Game

Defense Needs to Be Dialed

Don't take Miami's record for granted; this is a high-octane offense. They're in the top 10 in the country in two-point percentage at 59.8%, top 25 in the country in free-throw percentage at 75%, and have talented three-point shooters, even if their percentages may not reflect that. Florida State's defense will need to be communicating at a high level and realize who they're guarding at all times.

It'll start with how FSU decides to defend Lynn Kidd, who has previously given them issues at Virginia Tech, like when he had 12 points and 15 rebounds in last year's matchup in Blacksburg. They did a better job at keeping him off the glass in the ACC Tournament, but a lot of the offense in Miami runs through Kidd. He may not always get credit for the assist, but where he is on the floor impacts all of the spacing. FSU needs to keep him away from the basket.

And realistically, Florida State needs to emphasize rim protection on drives. If they can force Miami to take 10-15-foot pull-ups (easier said than done), that'll go a long way to having success on defense. I also expect FSU to pressure Miami's freshmen backcourt as much as possible.

Find Malique Ewin Early and Often

If Miami doesn't change their defensive philosophy, they heavily hedge/blitz on ball screens with the center, and they don't do a great job of rotating to the roller. Malique Ewin should FEAST on that if FSU plays it correctly. It'll require their ball-handlers to be strong and deliver timely passes, but if they can get the ball to Ewin and allow him to play 4-on-3, FSU will be able to generate a good shot every single time down the floor. High-ball screens, slip or short roll with Ewin, and play out of that.

Matthew Cleveland

Any game between Florida State and Miami will have a focus on Matthew Cleveland going against his former team. He didn't play well in either matchup last year, combining for 18 points on 8/22 shooting and four turnovers in two games. If you think he won't be motivated to make up for those performances...

He still doesn't love physicality, but his three-point shot has developed to the point where FSU cannot leave him open anymore. His scoring average is down to 12.7 PPG this season, the lowest it's been since his freshman season, but he's averaging 21.25 PPG over the last four games with Nijel Pack out. Those four games are his highest-scoring games of the season. I expect FSU to be physical with him to see if they can get in his head early.

Game Prediction

Miami opened as favorites by 1.5 points with an over/under of 153.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Florida State needs their defense to play well, but they should be able to put up some points against a paltry Miami defense. They've dominated this rivalry as of late and I don't expect that to change here, especially with Nijel Pack out.

Florida State 83, Miami 76

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