Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Louisville Cardinals

It's the last game before Christmas as ACC play officially gets underway

Austin Veazey | 6 Hours Ago

Dec 7, 2024; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Florida State Seminoles forward Taylor Bol Bowen (10) shoots a free throw during the second half of the game against North Carolina State Wolfpack at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images / Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

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Florida State's last game before a two-week break for Christmas and New Year's is a big ACC game against the Louisville Cardinals. Non-conference play is over, now comes the important games.

Louisville is a good team despite what their record might say, and with FSU starting ACC play 0-1, this could arguably be a must-win game.

This game will be Saturday at 2 p.m. on the CW Network, live from the Donald L Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Louisville Cardinals Breakdown (6-5 Overall, 0-1 ACC)

Louisville is in their first season under head coach Pat Kelsey, who replaced the... horrendous tenure of Kenny Payne. I was very high on this team coming into the season, thinking they could make some real noise in ACC play. While they sit at 6-5, those five losses are to Duke, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Kentucky, their most recent game last Saturday. Oklahoma is the lowest-ranked team of those five on KenPom (37th, as of Friday morning), and they're 11-0.

The Cardinals have also been dealt with some brutal injuries that will hold them back from reaching the ceiling I thought they could get to, with Kasean Pryor tearing his ACL, Aboubacar Traore breaking his arm (out until early January), and Koren Johnson having season-ending shoulder surgery. Those are three big losses that take this team from one that could run 10-11 deep to one that is now playing 7-8.

The seven players you should know are Chucky Hepburn, Terrence Edwards Jr., Reyne Smith, Noah Waterman, James Scott, J'Vonne Hadley, and Khani Rooths. If they play Frank Anselem, Malique Ewin will be having barbecue chicken for lunch down low.

Hepburn is their leading man. A Wisconsin transfer, he's leading the team in scoring (15.2 PPG), assists (4.8 APG), and steals (ABSURD 3.0 SPG). He does turn it over a lot, something Florida State will try to exploit, but he's a good player. He's more than willing to fire it away from deep, averaging more than five three-point attempts per game. He's making them at a 33.3% rate but has games like the 4/11 performance at Kentucky and the 1/6 performance against Bellarmine. He's made at least one three in every game.

Terrence Edwards Jr. is a name FSU fans might be familiar with, as he visited Tallahassee as a transfer before eventually choosing the Cardinals this offseason. The former Sun Belt Player of the Year at James Madison is a dynamic scorer, averaging 13.8 PPG this season. He was moved to the bench for the last three games, and that seems to have woken him up from the semi-slump he was in, as he's averaged 22 PPG while shooting 10/19 from three-point range. He's still playing starter-level minutes in the games he's come off the bench, but this little adjustment has really worked for his production.

It wouldn't be Louisville if they didn't have an undersized, annoying white shooter. This time around, it's Reyne Smith who followed Coach Kelsey over from Charleston. He's listed at 6'2", 180 pounds, but there's no chance he's that tall. If FSU doesn't attack him relentlessly on defense, they'll be missing an opportunity. Offensively, he's attempted 110 shots this season and 98 of them have been three-pointers. So, might not want to let him freely catch it behind the arc.

J'Vonne Hadley is a Colorado transfer who is another strong defender. I wouldn't be surprised to see him matched up with Jamir Watkins for most of the game. He's also their leading rebounder at 7.8 RPG. Hadley, Noah Waterman, and James Scott are all averaging over two offensive rebounds per game, something FSU will have to know. Hadley doesn't scare me offensively.

The same goes for their frontcourt of Noah Waterman and James Scott. They're not very relied upon offensively, though James Scott is 35/38 on his two-point field goals this season. Waterman is attempting over five threes per game but is only making them at a 23.7% rate, but he is a 37.1% shooter for his career, which has spanned from Niagara to Detroit Mercy to BYU. The shot is likely bound to fall eventually.

Khani Rooths is another name FSU fans may know, as they were involved in his recruitment. He's only playing about 12 MPG as some needed depth down the board and is taking just 3.5 shots per game.

As a team, Louisville is severely behind on the three-point battle, shooting just 28% from deep this season, one of the worst marks in the country, while allowing teams to shoot 35.5%, again, one of the worst marks nationally. Despite that low three-point percentage, they are firing away from deep, with one of the five highest three-point attempt rates, and they're in the top ten in three-pointers attempted per game. They try to make up for that with their incredible interior scoring, with their 59.4% two-point percentage being one of the 20 best nationally.

Their defense forces a high rate of turnovers, but they've mostly been dead-ball turnovers. They also get after it on the offensive boards.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (9-3 Overall, 0-1 ACC)

FSU finished their non-conference slate 9-2, which is what they had to do at a minimum to keep any hope of a Tournament appearance at the end of the season alive. Unfortunately, none of those wins are Quad 1 or 2 wins, and while it's still early, Rice losing to NAIA's UNT-Dallas isn't helping FSU's resume.

The ACC also isn't shaping up to provide many good opportunities for the Seminoles to stack up quality wins, as just three ACC schools sit in the top 40. FSU likely has to win 12 ACC games to have a chance to make it into the Big Dance, and letting a winnable game at NC State a few weeks ago get away is not the start they needed.

They'll need to be better with their turnovers in ACC play, as they're turning it over at an 18.6% rate this season. Even if they can drop that into the 16% range, that would be huge. They'll also need to be better about defending without fouling, as they have one of the highest fouling rates in the country. They're drawing a fair amount of fouls themselves, but cleaning up the defensive fouling would make a great defense even better.

Malique Ewin is only getting better with every game, but it'll be interesting to see if he can keep it up in ACC play. James Scott will be an interesting matchup here on Saturday.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Daquan Davis
G: Chandler Jackson
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Louisville

G: Chucky Hepburn
G: Reyne Smith
G: J'Vonne Hadley
F: Noah Waterman
F: James Scott

Keys to the Game

Defensive Communication

This is a game where Florida State's defense has to be on point. Louisville has a few talented players on the perimeter capable of scoring in different ways. Reyne Smith is shooting nearly 90% of his shots from behind the arc, while Chucky Hepburn and Terrence Edwards Jr. are capable from inside or out. When FSU is switching on the perimeter, they have to know who they're guarding on-ball and off. If FSU lets Reyne Smith slip to the corner behind them without realizing it and he gets open for some shots, this could be a long game.

Fast Offense

While Florida State doesn't have the same scoring talent that Kentucky has, the one thing they can replicate from that Louisville/Kentucky game is Kentucky's offensive pace. The Wildcats were racing up and down the floor on offense, trying to get baskets before Louisville's defense was set, and it led to some easy baskets as the Cardinals couldn't communicate on time. Even on made baskets, FSU needs to be snatching the ball out of the basket and pushing it ahead. They'll want to slow the pace on defense, but go guns blazing on offense.

Interior Battle

Louisville has mostly been a poor three-point shooting team this season, only having three games this year shooting above 35% from three, and hasn't broken the 40% mark yet in any game. This is a team that wants to score on the outside with their high three-pointers attempted, and when they can't, they go inside. And if they can't score inside, they lose. When Louisville shoots better than 55% from inside the arc, they're 6-0. When they shoot worse than 55%, they're 0-5.

This goes for Florida State's offense as well. When Louisville holds their opponent under 55% on twos, they're 6-1, and when their opponent is converting those chances, they're 4-0. Florida State (specifically, Jamir Watkins and Malique Ewin) has to be efficient around the basket in this game.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 2.5 points with an over/under of 152.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Florida State was very upset with how they let last year's Louisville game go, dropping one to a bad Cardinals team in a high-scoring affair. While not a single player from that Louisville roster is on this year's team, the coaches and few players that remained in Tallahassee haven't forgotten that game. This one won't be easy, but as long as Louisville doesn't go nuclear from three, I think Malique Ewin and Jamir Watkins are the two best players on the floor, and that'll make a huge difference, as long as they stay out of foul trouble. I'll take the 'Noles in a tight one.

Florida State 77, Louisville 76

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