Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. No. 20 Florida Gators

It's been three straight losses against the Gators for FSU. Can Leonard Hamilton snap the streak and pick up one more win in the rivalry?

Nov 9, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Florida State Seminoles guard Chandler Jackson (0) shoots the ball during the first half against the Rice Owls at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Florida State is 3-0 for the first time since the 2020-21 season, the last season they made the NCAA Tournament. It's also the last time that the Seminoles beat the Florida Gators. UF embarrassed FSU last year, winning 89-68 in a game that was never even that close.

In what could be his last season at the helm, Coach Hamilton would surely love to pick up one more win over his rivals to the south after dominating them in the 2010s.

This game will be at 6 p.m. EST on the ACC Network from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

READ MORE: FSU Basketball Downs Tarleton State in Free-Throw Fest, 72-52

#20 Florida Gators Breakdown (3-0)

The big talk about Florida basketball recently has been the stalking and harassment allegations surrounding head coach Todd Golden, but since they've announced there won't be any changes in his coaching status, there's no reason to discuss it beyond the initial mention of it.

The Gators are a really talented basketball team, led by Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard, Alex Condon, and Alijah Martin, who are all averaging between 12.3 and 16.7 PPG. Clayton, in particular, is a special talent, and he has a vendetta against FSU for how he was recruited coming out of high school.

Clayton, Richard, and Martin spearhead a three-headed monster of perimeter attackers who haven't shot the ball well from three so far this season, but they've all been great shooters in previous years. As a team, Florida is only shooting 26% from deep, but they were just average last year at 34.5%. Martin and Clayton are also very capable playmakers, averaging more than three assists per game. Martin and Richard are averaging a combined seven steals per game.

Despite their poor performance from three so far this season, this has been a very good offense, averaging 88.3 PPG. They've shot a blistering 65.8% on two-point shots, something that will be put to the test against a good interior defense.

Part of that interior offense is due to their tremendous frontcourt with Condon, Sam Alexis, Rueben Chinyelu, and Thomas Haugh. Condon is only averaging 5.7 shot attempts per game but is over 15 PPG because of how often he gets to the free-throw line. Chinyelu has been their starting center, but Alexis has been the more impactful scorer and rebounder.

The other two players to know are Denzel Aberdeen, who is their primary bench guard, and Urban Klazavar, who will be eligible for the first time this season in this game. He shot nearly 43% from three in Spain last year.

UF's defense is great, not elite. They don't foul, and they force a high rate of turnovers, just not as high as FSU. Their main goal will be to keep FSU out of the paint, although Florida has had a solid interior defense so far.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (3-0)

Florida State's last win against Tarleton State was as sloppy as it could possibly get: 38 total turnovers, 48 total fouls, and 66 total free throws. It also ended a streak of 21 consecutive games in double-figure scoring for Jamir Watkins. Don't expect that to be the case on Friday night.

It looks like FSU was saving Watkins' legs for this game, as he only played 18 total minutes and just seven in the second half. Once the game was in control, there was no reason to wear him out heading into this high-profile matchup. No starter played more than 19 minutes in preparation for this Florida game.

The defense has mostly been awesome to start the season, but they have to get the fouling issue under control. Teams are averaging over 27 free throw attempts per game against the 'Noles while they foul 23 times per game. They've done a magnificent job of defending the paint, at just 50 paint points allowed through three games. They've also done a good job defending the three, save for a few possessions from Rice's Alem Huseinovic, holding teams to 27.9% from deep. If they can control the fouling, they can be an all-time great defense with their high forced turnover rate.

Coach Hamilton says this can be a great shooting team, but they've been far from it, shooting just 66.7% from the free throw line and 21% from three. They'll need those numbers to be much higher against the Gators.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Chandler Jackson
G: Bostyn Holt
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Florida

G: Walter Clayton Jr.
G: Alijah Martin
G: Will Richard
F: Alex Condon
C: Rueben Chinyelu

Keys to the Game

How Good is FSU's Defense Really?

Florida State's defense has mostly been very good to start the season, holding teams to 35.4% shooting from the floor this season. Florida is a much different challenge with talented shot-makers like Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard, and Alijah Martin. UF isn't shooting the three well to start the season at just 26%, but Clayton is a career 38.4% shooter, Richard is a career 35% shooter, and Martin is a career 36.7% shooter. They'll also have Urban Klavzar eligible for the first time this season who shot 42.7% from three in Spain last year. These aren't guys you can leave open.

FSU should have the length to match up with Florida's bigs, but with the Seminoles' switching scheme, there may be some mismatches the Gators can take advantage of, especially on the hi-lo actions they like to use. How FSU will react to those switches and actions without leaving shooters open will be a key factor in this game.

The big thing is the Seminoles have to get their fouling under control. They're averaging almost 23 fouls per game and teams are shooting over 27 free throws per game. Florida is already a great offensive team, there's no reason to help them out by sending them to the line.

Defensive Rebounding

Florida State has been better with their defensive rebounding so far this year, only allowing an offensive rebound rate of 25.5%. While it's still not as good as it could be, it's much better than the above-30% rate they've allowed the last five seasons.

They'll have their work cut out for them against the Gators, who are snagging an absurd 39.2% of their misses and an average of 13.3 offensive rebounds per game. Florida State has shown great energy and hustle so far, but they haven't faced a team with the size that Florida has in their frontcourt. Alex Condon, Sam Alexis, Alijah Martin, and Thomas Haugh are all snagging >1.5 o-boards per game.

Transition Opportunities

Through three games, Florida has 53 fastbreak points while only allowing 32. It's no surprise that USF was able to keep the game closer because the Bulls ran out for 23 of those 32 fastbreak points and held the Gators to 13. Florida has been much better at limiting those opportunities in the two games since, but the Seminoles will want to force turnovers and get out in transition. Whoever can win the fastbreak opportunities will have a good chance of winning this game.

Game Prediction

Florida is favored by 5.5 points with an over/under of 157.7, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Florida State's defense is much improved, and Jamir Watkins should be the best player on the court. But unless FSU shoots the lights out to give him space to operate, I'm not sure they're talented enough yet to even cover this spread. I was expecting this spread to be a few points higher, and the Gators seem to be the choice here. Boy, I would love to be wrong, though.

Florida 78, Florida State 68

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

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