Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Northern Kentucky

With all of the suffering Florida State football has caused, can basketball provide any relief in their season opener?

Oct 9, 2024; Charlotte, NC, USA; Florida State player Jamir Watkins during ACC Media Days at The Hilton Charlotte Uptown. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

We have finally made it to basketball season! No more suffering through football season! Hip-hip, hooray!

Florida State and Leonard Hamilton had an interesting offseason, bringing in nine new players after the team desperately needed a facelift with last season's volatility. Whether or not they made the right moves has yet to be seen, and they'll have an interesting matchup against Northern Kentucky.

This first game will be at 7 p.m. EST from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida, on ACCNX.

READ MORE: FSU Basketball 2024-25 Season Preview: Roster Breakdown

Northern Kentucky Norse Breakdown

NKU was a pesky team last season, going 18-15 overall and 12-8 in conference play, but bring back two key players that will be a force to be reckoned with this season: Sam Vinson and Trey Robinson. Both players were selected to the All-Horizon Preseason First-Team this year and were a big reason the Norse were picked to finish third in the league.

Vinson was off to a strong start last season, averaging a career-high 13.3 PPG, before tearing his ACL in the 13th game against Saint Mary's. They say he's fully healthy and ready to contribute, but it is fair to wonder if the former Horizon Rookie of the Year will be prepared for this challenge. In six career games against power conference teams, including against Houston in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, he's averaged 11.5 PPG, so he's plenty capable. His three-point shot has stagnated since having a solid shooting year as a freshman, but he's been lethal inside the arc the last two years.

Trey Robinson, a 6'6" guard, led the Norse in rebounding last year, averaging 7.0 RPG and 11.7 PPG. He had five double-doubles last season and can score on the inside against unwilling defenders. Robinson was also the league's defensive player of the year and should guard Jamir Watkins most of the game. These two will have their work cut out for them after their leading scorer from a season ago exhausted his eligibility, but they're both quality defenders.

Northern Kentucky runs a really funky matchup-zone defense that forces a high turnover rate. It's elevated much higher than your normal zones, and they swarm to the basketball, forcing a lot of deflections and steals. It'll be an interesting challenge for Florida State's offense, which has had trouble against zone defenses in the past.

The best way to beat their defense is to crash the offensive glass and get shots at the rim. NKU was ranked in the bottom third in the country in 2PT% defense and offensive rebound rate allowed, so opportunities are there for FSU if they so choose.

NKU has been one of the best programs in the country at finding and developing D2 talent, and they've done it again, bringing in Dan Gherezgher Jr. and Josh Dilling to man their point guard rotation. Both are bigger lead guards at 6'4", and coach Darrin Horn called Gherezgher the most talented D2 player they've had come through the program, who can be elite defensively, while Dilling led the team in scoring in both of their scrimmages.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown

Florida State played well in both exhibition games but definitely played better in the second one against West Florida, showcasing three-point range, defensive intensity, and pace. We'll see if that translates to the regular season.

The one thing we know will translate is Jamir Watkins, who is one of the best players in the ACC and has as good a chance to make the All-ACC First Team as anyone at FSU in the last decade. He led the 'Noles in almost every statistical category a season ago, but he may have to average 20/5/5 this season for the team to have more success.

Transfers like Justin Thomas, Jerry Deng, and Bostyn Holt want to prove they can play in the ACC, and freshmen like AJ Swinton and Daquan Davis want to prove they can play winning basketball right away. Returners like Chandler Jackson and Taylor Bol Bowen want to prove they've taken a jump.

This is a young team with a lot of unknowns, but they have been a scrappy bunch in the preseason, willing to dive for loose balls and make the hustle plays we haven't seen in years past. A lot of them have something to prove, and with low expectations, FSU feels confident they can surprise some people.

READ MORE: 3 Takeaways from FSU Basketball's Dominant Showing Against West Florida

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Chandler Jackson
G: Bostyn Holt
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Northern Kentucky

G: Dan Gherezgher Jr.
G: Sam Vinson
G: Trey Robinson
F: LJ Wells
F: Keeyan Itejere

3 Keys to the Game

How Will All of the Newcomers Perform?

FSU has so many pieces coming into the lineup, and there may be some mental lapses with them adjusting to a new scheme. But they bring a lot of excitement, as well. College basketball is in a wild era currently, and this is something we'll have to get used to. The three new players I'm keeping an eye on the most are Malique Ewin, Daquan Davis, and Jerry Deng. I think they'll have the biggest impact on the team.

Three-Point Shooting

Florida State shot just 31.7% from three last season, and Northern Kentucky wasn't any better at 31.6%. If FSU wants to catch teams off-guard and have better success offensively, it'll come from being a better shooting team. But at the same time, they can't allow teams to shoot 35.2% from three, as they did last year. Florida State needs to have a much better three-point differential this year.

At the same time, FSU can't settle for threes. NKU's weird matchup zone wants to force teams into contested threes, and the 'Noles can't allow that to happen. If the ball is swung to open shooters, that's fine, but don't be caught into throwing up 25 three-pointers because ball-handlers don't want to get into the teeth of the defense.

Turnovers

Florida State was the best team in the ACC at forcing turnovers last season, and Northern Kentucky was the second-best team in the Horizon League at it. FSU's length should bother NKU, but they can't allow NKU to do the same to them. The Seminoles don't have a lot of experienced ball-handlers, and Jamir Watkins had issues with turnovers last year. FSU would like to stay below a turnover rate of 12% while forcing NKU to turn it over at a rate north of 20%.

But FSU's offense will have a tough task against a pesky and tricky NKU defense. They'll have to be smart with the basketball and make correct reads against a low-major backcourt that has more size than usual.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 8.5 points with an over/under of 145.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

This is a tricky first game for FSU against an unusual matchup zone defense, and the Seminoles have had issues in the last few years against zones. And NKU has a starting lineup with everyone at 6'4" or taller, so the 'Noles can't bully them like they'd like to. The Norse have experience and know what they want to do, something FSU doesn't have just yet. Florida State is the more talented team and has performed well in the preseason, but this one could be a little close for comfort.

Florida State 77, Northern Kentucky 70

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READ MORE: Highest and Lowest Graded Players From Florida State's Loss To North Carolina

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