Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

Florida State has a much-needed chance to pick up a quality win on Wednesday night.
Jan 11, 2025; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Leonard Hamilton reacts during the second half at Littlejohn Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images
Jan 11, 2025; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Leonard Hamilton reacts during the second half at Littlejohn Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images / Ken Ruinard/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

Florida State is coming off a disappointing loss to Clemson over the weekend, but they have another chance to pick up a quality win on Wednesday night as the Pittsburgh Panthers are coming to Tallahassee.

With how poorly the ACC has started, the Seminoles don't have many chances to pick up quality wins for the rest of the season, especially at home. As of now, Pitt would be a Quad 1 game, the only one remaining of FSU's home slate unless North Carolina can pick it up. Pitt is coming off two straight losses to Louisville and Duke, so they'll want to get back in the win column.

This is a late tip-off in the Tuck: 9 p.m. EST on ESPNU.

READ MORE: FSU Basketball Falls on the Road to Clemson, 77-57

Pittsburgh Panthers Breakdown (12-4 Overall, 3-2 ACC)

Pitt is coming off two consecutive losses, including an embarrassing 30-point drubbing by Duke. They'd love nothing more than to bounce back with a win here, so expect them to come out with some early energy.

The analytics love this team. KenPom has the Panthers as a top-50 team in offensive efficiency, turnover rate, effective field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and block rate. They're just outside of the top 50 in defensive efficiency, too. They're an effective scoring team inside the arc and out, teams generally don't shoot well against them, and they've been able to play at different tempos.

Pitt has a two-headed monster at guard with Jaland Lowe and Ishmael Leggett. Lowe has taken over as the primary ball-handler, with Bub Carrington leaving early for the NBA, averaging 17.2 PPG, 5.9 APG, 4.6 RPG, and 1.9 SPG, but is shooting 37.5% from the floor. He gets to the free throw line a decent amount, where he is an elite shooter. He's under 30% from three for the season but has seven games with multiple three-pointers made. Lowe shoots a lot; some are bound to go in.

Leggett isn't far behind with 16.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.8 APG, and 1.7 SPG. He's much more efficient than Lowe, especially inside the arc, where he's shooting 57.4%, but he is coming off a 4/6 three-point shooting display against Louisville. This backcourt will be a tough matchup for the Seminoles.

FSU is very familiar with Pitt's center, Cam Corhen, who spent his first two seasons in Tallahassee under Leonard Hamilton. His production hasn't picked up too much, as he's at 10.9 PPG and 5.8 RPG while shooting 63.2% from the floor. They should know exactly how to attack him if they can get him in space.

Damian Dunn is their other double-digit scorer at 11.1 PPG but has missed some games due to injury. The Houston transfer is a great defender, as you'd expect for someone from Houston. He's their best three-point shooter so far, shooting 52.9% from deep on 3.0 3PA.

Zack Austin has seen his three-point shooting spike after a disappointing first season at Pitt. The former High Point standout is an elite athlete, and pairing that with 44.4% shooting from deep is a much-needed addition to the team.

Guillermo Diaz Graham is miles better than his brother, Jorge, averaging 6.4 PPG and 5.7 RPG in just 22 MPG. He struggles with fouls and hasn't shot well to start the season, but it will still be an interesting matchup against Taylor Bol Bowen and FSU.

Brandin Cummings is the brother of former Pitt sharpshooter Nelly Cummings, and he is also a strong shooter, sinking over 40% of his threes. Those are the main seven players you're likely to see from them in this game.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (11-5 Overall, 2-3 ACC)

Saturday's loss to Clemson was disappointing but not surprising. Clemson is a great team, and they made some tough shots, but FSU's offense was rough. Jamir Watkins was just 3/12 from the floor and only attempted three free throws, the point guard rotation of Chandler Jackson and Daquan Davis had a total of 11 points on 3/8 shooting and three turnovers. Taylor Bol Bowen was held in check all game. As great of a shooter as Jerry Deng can be, him being your second-best player in a game won't win many in the ACC.

As mentioned in the open, FSU only has three Quad 1 games left on the schedule as it stands now. Making the Tournament at the end of the season was always a long shot for me, but they have a stretch coming up where they can rack up some wins. After Pitt, here are their next seven games and their KenPom rankings as of Tuesday afternoon (FSU is 67th for reference): vs. #103 Georgia Tech, at #129 California, at #90 Stanford, vs. #162 Virginia Tech, at #201 Boston College, vs. #75 Notre Dame, at #80 Wake Forest. If the 'Noles can find a way to win this game against Pitt, they could be setting themselves up for a solid winning streak, but that's easier said than done.

The three-point shooting also has to become more consistent. They're better than you might expect, but games like Saturday against Clemson, where they're 4/16 from deep while their opponent lights them up, have been a theme for the last few years. Pitt is another good three-point shooting team, and FSU has to do a better job of defending the perimeter than they did on Saturday.

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Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Daquan Davis
G: Chandler Jackson
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Pittsburgh

G: Jaland Lowe
G: Ishmael Leggett
F: Zack Austin
F: Guillermo Diaz Graham
F: Cameron Corhen

Keys to the Game

Defend Without Fouling

This could be a key in every game for Florida State, but it'll definitely matter here. Three of Pitt's losses have come when they shoot 13 or fewer free throws. Florida State has only held three teams to that mark, one of which was their loss to Clemson last week when they went ballistic from three. Pitt is also a good three-point shooting team, but I'd rather FSU focus on not fouling initially. Pitt is also in the top 20 nationally in free throw percentage. No reason to give them any extra points if it can be avoided.

Jamir Watkins

Watkins has been quiet for his standards in his last two games, scoring a combined 21 points on 7/19 shooting and just three free throw attempts against Miami and Clemson. Hopefully, coming home will be the spark he needs to get back on track because they likely can't beat a team as talented as Pitt without a good performance from him.

Rebounding

Pitt has only been out-rebounded in four games this season. All four of those have been losses. I don't think I need to say much more than that. But I will.

Florida State has only out-rebounded their opponents in seven games this season, as they usually generate enough turnovers to make up for the lack of rebounds. Pitt has only a turnover rate north of 19% twice this season, and they won both of those games. This likely isn't a game that FSU will be able to rely on forcing turnovers, so they have to be able to defend well and rebound at a high level.

Game Prediction

Pitt opened as favorites by 2.5 points with an over/under of 150.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I just don't see this as a great matchup for FSU. Pitt is a good three-point shooting team, and we've seen Clemson and Louisville light the Seminoles up from behind the arc. They should know how to take advantage of Cam Corhen down low, as I think Malique Ewin is that special of a talent, but the defense has to be much better than it's been against quality teams.

Pittsburgh 77, Florida State 71


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Austin Veazey
AUSTIN VEAZEY

Lead basketball writer; Former FSU Men's Basketball Manager from 2016-2019