Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Syracuse Orange

It's the first game of the new year for the Seminoles.

Austin Veazey | Jan 4, 2025

Dec 3, 2024; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; Florida State Seminoles forward Jerry Deng (7) brings the ball up court against the LSU Tigers during the second half at Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

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Florida State Seminoles

Florida State returns to action on Saturday after two weeks off for the holidays. They'll get to ring in the New Year against a reeling Syracuse Orange team playing without their best player. Neither team has beaten a power conference opponent this season, so this is an important game for both sides to start 2025 on a strong note.

This game will be at 6 p.m. EST on the ACC Network, live from the Donald L Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Syracuse Orange Breakdown (6-7 Overall, 0-2 ACC)

The Syracuse Orange are in their second season under "Red" Autry. They were solid in his first season, going 20-12, as their backcourt of Judah Mintz and JJ Starling was well-complimented by players like Maliq Brown and Chris Bell. Mintz is gone to the pros, and Brown has transferred to Duke. And what I thought was a solidly reloaded roster hasn't lived up to the billing.

Syracuse has arguably been the biggest disappointment of the ACC for me so far. I thought this would be one of the five or six best teams in the league, and they're one of the five or six worst. They've yet to beat a power conference opponent (like FSU), but their wins against Le Moyne, Colgate, Youngstown State (in 2OT), Cornell, Albany, and Bucknell have come by an average of just nine points.

This is a very inconsistent team, especially since JJ Starling has been out with a broken hand. He's missed the last seven games, a stretch where they've gone 2-5 with two near-30-point losses. Without Starling, who was averaging 19.5 PPG and is not expected to play in this game, they don't have a consistent scoring threat.

Syracuse's offense has been scoring by committee, but a lot of their offense is playing out of the post with Eddie Lampkin Jr. FSU played against Lampkin last season when he was at Colorado, and he's a deceptively good passer. While his total assist numbers may not reflect how much he touches the basketball, he's not all that dissimilar from DJ Burns as an oversized passing big man, listed at 6'11", 300 pounds. Overall, he's averaging 10.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 2.5 APG. However, he is not an interior protector, as teams are shooting 53.6% inside the arc against the Orange this year, as he isn't the most mobile.

Five-star freshman Donnie Freeman has picked up a little of the slack with Starling out, averaging 14.1 PPG and 6.6 RPG in his last seven games. He has a solid mid-range shot, and the three-pointer is developing, but he only has two games with more than one three-pointer made. He has good length at 6'9" and will be an intriguing matchup against FSU's long defense.

Chris Bell has fallen off this season, going from 42.1% from three last year to 21.6% on fewer attempts this season, and he's started to see his playing time cut in the last few games.

Elijah Moore has had his playing time yanked around. After a six-game stretch of averaging 13.2 PPG in 27 MPG, he's gone scoreless in his last two games while averaging just 11 MPG. While he may start the game, if they get off to a bad start again, he could be removed quickly.

Kyle Cuffe has stepped up when they've needed it, though, scoring at least nine points in four of their last five games. He and Jaquan Carlos, who is more of a passer than a scorer, will likely be their backcourt for most of this game.

This is not a good three-point shooting team. They don't take many and hit them at one of the lowest percentages in the country. They're great on the defensive glass, and they score well on the inside, but that's about all they do well.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (9-4 Overall, 0-2 ACC)

It was not exactly a quiet time off for the Seminoles, as it was announced that six former players from the 2023-24 team are suing Leonard Hamilton over an NIL dispute. While it will have little to no impact on the on-court product, it's something that will be hanging over the program and will likely be mentioned on every broadcast for the rest of the season.

If the team could have one New Year's wish (aka, if I could magically fix one thing about the team), it'd be to fix their fouling issues. They have one of the worst foul rates in the country and would solve a lot of their main problems on defense. I'm willing to write off Louisville's hot three-point shooting in FSU's last game as a one-off until proven otherwise.

Both Jamir Watkins are making cases to become All-ACC players if they continue their current production. Watkins is second in the ACC in scoring at 19.5 PPG, while Ewin is averaging 15.5 PPG and 8.2 RPG over his last ten games. Ewin has gotten better in every game and he'll have a tough matchup ahead of him with the massive Eddie Lampkin Jr.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Chandler Jackson
G: Bostyn Holt
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Syracuse

G: Jaquan Carlos
G: Elijah Moore
F: Chris Bell
F: Donnie Freeman
C: Eddie Lampkin Jr.

Keys to the Game

Interior Defense

Syracuse had not been able to shoot the ball well this year for whatever reason. Even Chris Bell, who shot 42% on more than 6 3PA last season, is down to 21.6% on 3.9 3PA this season. JJ Starling was the only player taking more than four threes per game, but he's not expected to play, and their leading shooter is Donnie Freeman at 33.3% on just 2.5 3PA.

This entire game will likely come down to FSU's interior defense. They can't afford to send Syracuse to the line or let the Orange grab offensive rebounds. 'Cuse is 0-4 in games with an offensive rebound rate below 25%. That has to be part of the goal for the Seminoles.

Playmaking Out of the Post

This is a unique matchup in that both team's centers, Eddie Lampkin for Syracuse and Malique Ewin for Florida State, are arguably the best playmakers on each side. Jaquan Carlos may lead the Orange in assists, but a lot of their offense is played out of Lampkin in the post.

FSU at least has experience playing against Lampkin, who was on the Colorado team last year that the Seminoles beat in the Sunshine Slam. In that game, Lampkin had eight points, 11 rebounds, and four assists in an overtime matchup. Malique Ewin may have his hands full on defense, but Ewin should also be able to torch him on the other end.

Quick Starts

Syracuse has been prone to bad starts to halves and fighting back toward the end of each half. If Florida State gets out to an early 17-5 lead, it shouldn't be a surprise, but FSU also has to be able to hold onto that lead. If it's the 'Noles that get out to a bad start, they could be in for a long game.