Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Temple Owls

It's the first of two games for the Seminoles at the Mohegan Sun in Connecticut.

Austin Veazey | Nov 22, 2024

The Florida State Seminoles host the Hofstra Pride for a men’s basketball game at the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center on Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024. / Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Florida State Seminoles

Florida State has started 4-1 for the second season in a row, and they'll have an interesting weekend ahead of them if they want to move to 5-1 or 6-1 as they travel to Uncasville, Connecticut, for the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off. It starts on Friday against the Temple Owls and will conclude on Sunday against the UMass Minutemen.

Just as the Hofstra game was a mini-revenge game for the 2015 Paradise Jam, so is this game against Temple. The Owls beat the Seminoles in the 2016-17 season in the NIT Tip-Off in Brooklyn, a team that had Dwayne Bacon, Jonathan Isaac, Terance Mann, and more. It was also my first year with the team, and it's a loss that has stuck with me for this long.

This game will be at 5 p.m. EST on ESPN+ from the Mohegan Sun in Uncasville, CT.

Temple Owls Breakdown (3-1)

Temple realistically could be 4-0 right now. They were up 63-59 at Boston College with about eight minutes to go, then didn't make another field goal until there were 26 seconds left to go, and lost 72-69. BC isn't the greatest team so it was interesting to see Temple fall flat like this, especially with a player as talented as Jamal Mashburn Jr.

The son of former All-Star Jamal Mashburn, he started his career following Richard Pitino from Minnesota to New Mexico, as his dad played for Rick Pitino at Kentucky. Junior transferred to Temple for his last season of college basketball and has seen his production skyrocket, now averaging 23.5 PPG.

His current shooting splits of 50/61.9/71.4 doesn't feel sustainable, but he's always been a high-volume shot-taker. Any time a player is 13/21 from three, it is certainly worth taking a closer look. There are more than a few three-point attempts like this that go in.

FSU plays Temple on Friday… expect a lot of nonsense like this from Jamal Mashburn Jr pic.twitter.com/13eJfT6nQG
— Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG) November 20, 2024

The first rule of thumb is if Florida State continues to switch everything on the perimeter (which I don't see why they'd change now), the defender switching onto the ball-handler has to get up to the ball. If they take too long, Mashburn absolutely will fire over the top of it. He's taking almost 30% of Temple's field goal attempts and will be FSU's primary focus on the scouting report.

There are two other players you need to know: Steve Settle III and Zion Stanford. Settle is a 6'10" perimeter player who has made 6/15 from three to start the season but is getting to the free-throw line at a high rate and is feasting on the glass. The battle between him and Taylor Bol Bowen should be fascinating. Zion Stanford is a Swiss Army Knife type of player but has also gotten to the free-throw line at a high rate, which brings up my next point.

Temple gets to the free-throw line a LOT. They're top 50 nationally in free-throw rate and free throws attempted per game. Florida State's biggest flaw defensively is their penchant for fouling, though they were much better on Tuesday against Hofstra. If Temple continues to get to the line at the rate they have been, this could be an uncomfortable game for FSU.

Big man Elijah Gray is someone to keep an eye on, who came out of concussion protocol to play in his first game against BC, scoring 10 points while knocking down two three-pointers. Now that they've had a week since that BC game, he should be in an even better rhythm for this game.

Temple is making 41.3% of their three-pointers (33.9% outside of Mashburn), has done a good job of not allowing live-ball turnovers, and teams haven't been able to really score against them. However, they've gotten destroyed on the offensive glass so far this season, something FSU may want to exploit. They'll bounce back and forth between man and zone defense if one isn't working the way they want.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (4-1)

I know a win over Hofstra can look uninspiring, but Hofstra is a good team, and they have a good chance to win their conference. FSU had a handle on the game the entire way. Even when Hofstra started the second half on a big scoring run to get the lead down to two, the Seminoles responded with a 10-0 run to open the game back up.

The most important thing is we saw a good game from Malique Ewin for the first time this season, scoring 13 points on 6/8 shooting and grabbing six rebounds. He struggled with his efficiency in the first few games but got into a rhythm against Hofstra, something FSU will need from him in this game. Temple allowed BC's Elijah Strong to dominate in the middle and there's no reason Ewin can't do the same.

Another big reason for FSU holding a constant lead was their success from the free-throw line: 18/23. Through their first four games, the Seminoles shot 65.8% from the charity stripe (a lot of that due to the shaky start by Jamir Watkins), and it allowed some teams to hang in games that probably shouldn't have. With Watkins getting to the line at the rate he's at (75% FTR!!!), he must make his freebies, and that'll pace the rest of the team. He was 5/5 from the line against Hofstra, a sign he's figuring out his shooting woes.

Florida State's defense has remained as disruptive as ever, starting the season in the top ten nationally in forced turnover rate, block rate, and steal rate. If they clean up their unnecessary fouling, as they did against Hofstra, there's a good chance this defense becomes one of the nation's best.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Chandler Jackson
G: Bostyn Holt
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Temple

G: Jamal Mashburn Jr.
G: Quante Berry
G: Zion Stanford
F: Steve Settle III
F: Babatunde Durodala

Keys to the Game

Head of the Snake

This is a head-of-the-snake scenario if I've ever seen one. For those unfamiliar with this phrase, if you cut the head off a snake, it dies. In basketball, we refer to the "head of the snake" as a player who is dominant to a team, and if you can cut that player off, you should succeed. That should be the case with Temple and Jamal Mashburn Jr.

Mashburn is taking more than 16 shots per game; the next closest player has 8.5 per game. He has made 13 three-pointers; the next closest player has six. He's averaging 23.5 PPG; the next closest is at 13.5. There are a lot of possessions where Temple gives him the ball and says, "Go make something happen," and he's made things happen early on this season. They have other talented players, like Steve Settle and Zion Stanford, but Mashburn will be the team's main concern.

If Florida State continues to switch everything on the perimeter, the switcher had to step up into him. There are a few instances this season where the switching defender is waiting for him to come around the screen, and he just shoots over the top of it. They'll have to be locked into the game plan for this game. I imagine they'll try to deny him from getting the ball as much as possible, but he's a fifth-year senior who has played almost 130 games of college basketball and almost 4000 minutes. He'll find ways to get the ball.

Crash the Offensive Glass

Temple is one of the worst defensive-rebounding teams in the country so far, allowing an offensive rebound rate of 35.9%. They don't have much size on the inside, even with getting Elijah Gray back from injury in their last game against Boston College.

FSU has only had an offensive rebound above 32% once this season; they should be aiming above that. I expect Malique Ewin to have a big game here.

Defend Without Fouling

While some people will point to Temple's three-point percentage of 41.8%, a lot of that is due to Jamal Mashburn making 13 of his 21 attempts from deep for a blistering 61.9%. The rest of the team is 20/59 (33.9%) for the season. The real, more consistent team factor is their ability to get to the free-throw line.

Through four games, Temple has a free-throw rate (free throws per field goal attempt) of 45%, top 50 nationally. Compare that with a Florida State defense that has been susceptible to cheap fouls, and this could be the one thing Temple tries to exploit.

FSU did a great job of not fouling against Hofstra on Tuesday night, fouling just 14 times for the game and only allowing seven free throws from Hofstra. It has to be a similar result on Friday to succeed.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 4.5 points with an over/under of 147.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

This is the first game this season where Florida State has really had to key in on one player, and in the past, they've been able to limit some teams like that, such as Dennis Smith Jr. and Ja Morant. We'll see if this team can live up to that standard, but I think they'll be able to pick up the win here.

Florida State 73, Temple 66

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