Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Massachusetts Minutemen

Can Florida State move to 2-0 at the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off Event?

Austin Veazey | 2 Hours Ago

Uncasville, CT - Florida State Seminoles Basketball guard Justin Thomas vs Temple Owls in the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off (Nov 23, 2024) / Florida State Seminoles Athletic

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Florida State is looking to move to 2-0 in the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off after beating the Temple Owls on Friday evening. Their next opponent is the Massachusetts Minutemen, who are playing on the second day of a back-to-back, as they played Temple on Saturday.

FSU is seeking their first 6-1 start since the 2019-20 season, and although the schedule hasn't been the strongest, they've done well against the competition they've played thus far.

This game will be at 3:30 p.m. EST on ESPN2 from the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut.

UMass Minutemen Breakdown (1-4)

The Massachusetts Minutemen are in their third season under Frank Martin, who led South Carolina on a surprise Final Four run in 2017. That's been his only Tournament appearance in the last 12 seasons. He also led the Gamecocks to a win over the Seminoles in the 2021-22 season.

UMass was solid last year, going 20-11, but they've been shaky to start the season, with consecutive losses to West Virginia, Louisiana Tech, Hofstra (at home in overtime), and Temple. Florida State has handled both Hofstra and Temple, two teams, that UMass has now lost to, but Leonard Hamilton and his team can't think that way.

They're led in scoring by their two guards, Rahsool Diggins and Jaylen Curry. Diggins won the Most Improved Player in the American Conference last season and seems to have picked up right where he left off. Most of his shot attempts come from deep, something FSU must be prepared for. He also had a really poor game against Temple and will want revenge against FSU.

Curry is an elite playmaker, averaging nearly a 7:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He can attack the basket and shoot pull-ups, but he's most effective when he can get downhill and either throw the lob pass or kick out to an open shooter.

Daniel Hankins-Sanford is one of the more unremarkable scorers FSU has played yet. He's averaging over 11 PPG by just taking smart shots and getting to the basket. Nothing he does is awe-inspiring, but he just does his job consistently.

Another player to watch is Shahid Muhammad, who made his first start of the season against Temple on Saturday. He's long, tall, and bouncy, listed at 6'10", and they said on Saturday's broadcast multiple times that he had a 47-inch vertical (there's literally no chance). He's still learning to play with his size and can be susceptible to questionable fouls, but that athleticism matters on the interior.

Jayden Ndjigue and Nate Guerengomba gave them good minutes off the bench on Saturday, scoring 18 points against Temple.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (5-1)

Friday's win over Temple was a weird one for the Seminoles. Very rarely do they shoot as well from deep as they did in the first half, and it's even rarer when their shooting is the reason they're winning. FSU was 6/10 from deep in the first half, making up for their early turnover issues and their poor performance at the free-throw line.

The second half was usual Florida State basketball, creating havoc, dominating the paint, and getting to the line (and actually making their freebies). There are some things they need to clean up, specifically their turnovers, but some of their mistakes are just young players being young.

Malique Ewin is the game-changer for this team, though. When he's finishing his elite moves with points, defenses frankly don't have an answer for him. His first half was rough, but he was downright dominant in the second half. Jamir Watkins will be Jamir Watkins, but someone else needs to be a consistent second-scorer. Ewin can be that guy.

We all expected FSU's defense to create a lot of chaos, force turnovers, and block shots, but the biggest surprise has been their ability to defend the three. Through six games, teams are shooting just 29.8% from deep against the Seminoles, and a lot of that has to do with the pressure FSU is applying. They aren't allowing many open looks from deep, something that hasn't happened in recent years. FSU has been one of the worst three-point defenses in the country the last three seasons, and that one change has been a big turnaround for this defense. We'll see if that continues into ACC play.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Chandler Jackson
G: Bostyn Holt
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

UMass

G: Jaylen Curry
G: Rahsool Diggins
F: Daniel Rivera
F: Daniel Hankins-Sanford
F: Shahid Mohammad

Keys to the Game

Turnover Battle

Florida State turned it over 15 times on Friday, their second-highest total of the season. UMass isn't the peskiest defense, but they've consistently turned teams over around 19% all season.

Meanwhile, UMass has been mostly careful with the ball, only averaging _ turnovers per game. They'll be paired with an FSU defense that has been ruthless when forcing turnovers. FSU should focus on protecting the ball a little better, but they also need to continue their normal chaos on defense. If the Seminoles force a rate north of 25% while keeping their own turnover rate below 16%, that'll be a great start to this game.

Keep UMass Out of the Paint

UMass has a couple of good scorers in Rahsool Diggins and Jaylen Curry, but for the most part, this is a team full of athletes who want to finish at the rim. If you can keep them from getting two feet in the paint and force them into perimeter jumpers (without leaving them wide open), FSU should have a decent chance. Diggins is the one player who prefers to shoot from deep, so the 'Noles can't leave him open, but that can be helped by ball pressure on Curry.

But this also goes for rebounding. UMass capitalized early on some offensive boards on Saturday against Temple, and it's something FSU will have to be prepared for.

Be The More Physical Team

UMass has a lot of athleticism, but they're not very strong. Florida State can't be shying away from contact on either side of the floor, and even if they're fouling more than they should, UMass hasn't been a great free-throw shooting team this year (I wouldn't encourage letting them continuously get to the line. though). But the Seminoles can't allow the Minutemen's length to prevent them from getting to the basket. UMass will show some pressure, so FSU will need to be strong with the ball.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 3.5 points with an over/under of 148.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

This spread is... shockingly low. I was expecting closer to 8.5, so seeing it around 3.5, it seems like Vegas is trying to play mind games. Florida State is known for wearing teams down, and UMass played 20 hours ago, while FSU hasn't played since Friday. As long as the Seminoles play their game and don't let the Minutemen's athleticism fool them, they should come away with a win here.

Florida State 77, UMass 66

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