Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Western Carolina

What do the Seminoles have to do to move to 7-1?

Austin Veazey | 3 Hours Ago

The Florida State Seminoles host the Hofstra Pride for a men’s basketball game at the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center on Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024. / Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Florida State Seminoles

Florida State is off to its best start to a season since the 2019-20 season, sitting at 6-1 after a dominant showing on Sunday against UMass. It's a quick turnaround, though, as they come right back home to play Western Carolina.

This game was originally supposed to be played in Asheville, North Carolina, but due to the effects of Hurricane Helene in the Western North Carolina region, the game has been moved to Tallahassee, with proceeds from the game going to relief efforts. It'll be at 7 p.m. EST on ACCNX/ESPN+.

Western Carolina Catamounts Breakdown (2-2)

Western Carolina is in their first year under Tim Craft, who was at Gardner Webb for 11 years before deciding to head two hours west for WCU. This was a good team last year, but Justin Gray left for Coastal Carolina and took a lot of the talent with him.

This is not your average 2-2 team. They've beaten Bob Jones and Truett McConnell (those are schools, apparently) and lost to Queens University and Wake Forest. Somehow, the game against Wake Forest was the closest. I don't understand it either.

There's really only one thing you need to know about the Catamounts: they want to shoot a LOT of three-pointers. Every guard in their rotation is attempting more threes than two, and they're attempting more than 30 per game as a team. They've only made them at a 33.6% rate to start the season, but this isn't a team you want to leave open. Even their starting forwards attempt a fair number of threes.

Chevalier "Ice" Emery is their leading scorer at 15.3 PPG and is taking almost eight 3PA per game. Cord Stansberry and Markus Kell are both just over 10 PPG, with Kell being a solid stretch four. Bernard Pelote is averaging over 9.0 RPG, which leads the Southern Conference. This isn't a team you really need to know their personnel as much as you need to know what they want to do.

Their KenPom page is filled with a lot of red, especially because they only count games against Division-I competition towards their metrics. Those two games against D1 competition for WCU were so brutal that they're in the 300s nationally in two-point percentage, three-point percentage, effective field goal percentage, turnover rate, free-throw rate, blocked shots rate, and assist rate allowed. This is just a very inexperienced team that isn't playing well.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (6-1)

The second half that Florida State played against UMass on Sunday was the best half they've played in a long time. They scored 1.486 points per possession while only allowing UMass to shoot 10/31 from the floor. The ball was moving, passes were crisp, shots were being made, and the offense was looking smooth. Four different players had at least three assists, and six different players had at least two assists. That's incredible from such a young team.

Having Malique Ewin play at his best was a big help to the team. When he's making his shots, there's a chance he's the best big in the ACC. I've said it a few times in these previews, but his footwork and passing are so special for a big, and it opens up so much for the offense. There's a notable change in offense when he's on the floor and when he's not. There are still some defensive nuances he needs to pick up; I think there are times when he's a little too active with his hands, and that leads to unnecessary fouls. But it's important to note he didn't play much as a freshman at Ole Miss and was in JUCO last year. It'll take some time to get used to playing legitimate competition again.

It'll be interesting to see if the hot shooting from this weekend carries into this game and the rest of the season. Florida State shot just 29/108 (26.9%) from three-point range through the first five games and 16/37 (43.2%) at the Mohegan Sun. But we could also look at this another way. In FSU's first three games, they were just 13/62 (21%) from deep, but in the four games since, they're 32/83 (38.6%), shooting at least 34.5% in each game. If that's a sign of things to come for the season, they'll be just fine, and hopefully, that slow start stays at the start.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Chandler Jackson
G: Bostyn Holt
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Western Carolina

G: Chevalier "Ice" Emery
G: Cord Stansberry
G: Brandon Morgan
F: Markus Kell
F: Bernard Pelote

Keys to the Game

How Fresh are Florida State's Legs?

This will be Florida State's third game in five days, and it's a long flight back from Connecticut to Tallahassee. The good news is no one played more than 24 minutes in Sunday's blowout over UMass, but they'll be going against a team that hasn't played in a week.

The biggest sign of this is the shots they get on offense. If they're settling for jumpers instead of driving inside on a weaker and smaller team, the game could be closer than needed. The same goes for defense. They've shown great energy and activity early this season on defense, but they can't let fatigue factor into how they perform.

No Open Threes

This is the first team this season Florida State has played that wants to shoot a barrage of three-pointers. Nearly 50% of Western Carolina's field goal attempts are coming from behind the arc, and in their one game against decent competition this year, nearly 60% of their shots were from three. They're averaging over 30 attempts from deep per game. They're going to fire it away.

FSU's three-point defense has been the biggest surprise of the season, sitting in the top 40 nationally in three-point percentage allowed at 27.3%. They've done a great job of closing out to shooters to start the year, That will have to continue against the Catamounts.

Force One-on-One Basketball

To take it a step further from just not allowing open threes, I'd be okay with FSU not helping as much as we've seen and forcing WCU to play one-on-one, as I don't think they have anyone who can consistently beat FSU's perimeter defenders to the basket. Every guard in their rotation is taking more threes than twos. Force them to drive into the teeth of the defense, and that will force turnovers and make the Catamounts really uncomfortable.

Game Prediction

Western Carolina has the rest advantage, and I'm curious to see how energetic FSU will be. But the Seminoles have more talent, they're tenacious on defense, and the offense is gaining confidence. Hopefully, they're not thinking about the week-long break they're about to get and put a bad team away early.

Florida State 81, Western Carolina 62

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