ESPN’s returning production metrics point to a trend back toward success for FSU Football

ESPN's analysis of returning production signals that the Seminoles could be poised for a revival in 2025.

Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell smiles to the crowd after the game against the Florida Gators at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, November 25, 2023. [Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun] / Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK

Spring camp is right around the corner for the Florida State Seminoles, which means the 2025 college football season is rapidly approaching. Teams around the country have been going through their rosters with a fine-toothed comb and have their fingers crossed that they've evaluated their transfer additions and incoming recruits while the returning roster continues to develop.

It is no secret that the 'Noles had a historically bad 2-10 year in 2024, which prompted changes in staff and players across the board. There is a new offensive and defensive coordinator on campus alongside a handful of position coaches to help right the ship, but coaches can only do so much as it is the players who play the game.

ESPN recently released their ranking of returning production ahead of the 2025 season and FSU is trending in the right direction as far as players who transferred in and players who stuck with the program.

The Seminoles ranked No. 47 (61%) on the list of 136 Football Bowl Subdivision Programs, nearly double their ranking entering the 2024 season (No. 83). However, they still returned 58 percent of their production last year.

For comparison, they came in at No. 1 heading into their 2023 ACC Championship season with 87 percent and the majority of those standouts are currently playing in the NFL. This year, rival Clemson holds the No. 1 spot, returning 81 percent of their production from 2024.

As far as the ACC, FSU's returning production ranks behind the Tigers, Stanford (No. 13), Georgia Tech (No. 26), Pittsburgh (No. 27), NC State (No. 36), and Virginia (No. 46)

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FSU went heavy in the transfer portal again which does factor into the rankings. They brought in Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos to fill the void left by Luke Kromenhoek (transfer) and DJ Uiagalelei (NFL) and added a slew of big wide receivers and sought-after defensive transfers to help turn the program around. They currently hold the No. 7 transfer class and the No. 18 overall ranked class in the country.

Oct 12, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans wide receiver Duce Robinson (2) runs the ball after a complete pass before he is stopped by Penn State Nittany Lions safety Zakee Wheatley (6) in the second half at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

"I give only half-credit for players transferring up from lower divisions," ESPN's Bill Connelly wrote. "So if your quarterback leaves, and you bring in a transfer who was productive elsewhere -- hello, Miami (Carson Beck) and Indiana (Fernando Mendoza) -- that dampens the blow of your QB leaving."

Now, there is a weighted system in place from top to bottom based on snap counts, receiving yards, passing yards, and rushing yards. Rushing yards are at the bottom only accounting for three percent of the score. On defense, it is based on returning tackles, and returning tackles for loss. Florida State ranked No. 59 on returning defense.

So what does this mean? Florida State fans could see a spike in production this year although it is kind of hard to have a worse record than 2-10. Florida State opens the season on August 30 against Alabama at home and it should serve as a litmus test for the rest of the season ahead.

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