FSU Football Slots In As A Top-10 Team In Another Preseason Poll But With An Interesting Twist

Despite being the highest-ranked team in the ACC, the Seminoles don't have the best chance among the field to win the conference title or national championship.

Nov 4, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Florida State Seminoles tight end Kyle Morlock (84) stiff arms Pittsburgh Panthers defensive back Javon McIntyre (7) after a catch during the second quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Expectations remain sky-high in Tallahassee with Florida State coming off its second straight season with 10+ wins. The latest campaign saw the Seminoles compile a 13-1* record while securing their first ACC Championship since 2014. There is hope among the fanbase that head coach Mike Norvell can guide the program to success once again in 2024 but it won't be an easy task.

FSU is integrating 40 new players this offseason while replacing some of its biggest stars from the last few years. Despite the changes, the Seminoles continue to be a trendy pick to contend for a spot in the first 12-team College Football Playoff. The program slotted in as the No. 7 team in PFF's college football preseason power rankings on Monday.

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The Seminoles were listed as having the No. 33 strength of schedule with a projected win total of 8.6 wins. Florida State also holds a 92.11% chance of making a bowl game, a 15.39% chance to win the ACC, and a 3.05% chance to win the national championship.

While FSU is predicted to be ranked as the top team in the ACC, there is actually another program within the conference that has a better chance to lift the trophy in Charlotte and achieve a national title. Interestingly enough, PFF gave new conference foe SMU an 18.98% chance to win the ACC and a 3.06% chance to win it all.

That forecast is certainly worth monitoring even if the Mustangs benefit from drawing the No. 73 toughest schedule in the country. SMU's prospects of securing a conference title in its first season in the ACC could very well come down a two-game stretch that will include hosting Florida State and traveling to Louisville. That means they'll play the defending conference champion and runner-up with three of their first four ACC games coming on the road.

Outside of the Seminoles and Cardinals, SMU will face Pittsburgh, Boston College, and California at home while traveling to Stanford, Duke, and Virginia in conference play. The Panthers, Golden Bears, Cardinals, and Cavaliers all finished with losing records last year.

Florida State's schedule is manageable but still tricky at certain junctures. It's hard to overlook the beginning of the season where the team will face Georgia Tech in Ireland and Boston College on Labor Day in a span of ten days. Plus, the Seminoles will have a stretch where three of four games fall on the road in October and November when they take on Duke, Miami, North Carolina, and Notre Dame.

The annual matchup that has decided the ACC for much of the last 15 years between Florida State and Clemson will take place on October 5. That's a week after the Seminoles play their first true road game against SMU to conclude September.

The Mustangs compiled an 11-3 record under third-year head coach Rhett Lashlee last season. SMU will be no pushover as the team is returning its starting quarterback (Preston Stone), leading rusher (Jaylan Knighton), top tackler (Kobe Wilson), and dominant pass-rusher (Elijah Roberts).

Georgia, Texas, Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon, and Penn State are also projected to have better odds of securing a national title than FSU.

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