Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles at Duke Blue Devils

Florida State has never lost to Duke. Is this the year that changes?

Austin Veazey | 5 Hours Ago

Florida State Seminoles running back Lawrance Toafili (9) runs the ball in for a touchdown. The Florida State Seminoles defeated the Duke Blue Devils 38-20 on Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023. / Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK

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Florida State Seminoles

Florida State and Duke have met 22 times since 1992. Florida State has won all 22 of them. This isn't a program FSU should ever lose to, yet they enter Friday night's matchup as underdogs on the road.

The Seminoles have to be nearly perfect in the second half of the season to even make a bowl game, and it starts by beating Duke.

Duke enters with a 5-1 record during Manny Diaz's first season in Durham. In his three seasons as Miami's head coach, he beat FSU twice, but now he has a new opportunity to do something never done before.

This game will be at 7 p.m. EST on ESPN2 from Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina.

Seminole Headlines

Offensive Line Shuffling

Florida State's depth chart they release each week is more of a projection than what they actually show on the field. But with a major change this week, it's worth talking about. TJ Ferguson's play at guard has been poor, Richie Leonard is out, and Keiondre Jones has been banged up.

To counter that, Andre Otto will be starting once again, while Jaylen Early will shift inside to guard. The Early move is notable, as every snap in his career has come at tackle so far. Whether this will make a big difference or not won't be known, but it's hard to get worse than what FSU's offensive line has been so far this year.

Brock Glenn's First Road Start

Brock Glenn's fourth career start will be his first road game, and yet it's somehow his "easiest" matchup. His first three starts were in the ACC Championship, in the Orange Bowl, and at home against Clemson. Somehow a 5-1 team on the road on a Friday night will be as easy as it gets for Glenn.

He put up a great showing against Clemson last week but got no help from his receivers, offensive line, or running game. Despite completing just 51.1% of his passes, he still finished with a PFF grade of 82.1, higher than all of Jordan Travis' 2023 campaign except the Duke game. Glenn's ability to escape the pocket and use his legs when necessary is such a massive boost to the offense, and it's maddening it took this long to make the QB switch.

Duke's Wild First Half of the Season

Not many people had Duke making it to 5-1 at this point of the season, even if their best win is... UCONN? North Carolina? It's not exactly a redeeming schedule, but the way they got to their 5-0 start before losing to Georgia Tech was wild.

UConn was up 21-17 entering the 4th quarter, but Duke held the Huskies scoreless while scoring nine points to win 26-21. It took double overtime to beat Northwestern. UNC was up 20-0 with six minutes remaining in the third quarter, yet Duke won 21-10. These are abnormal wins against not great competition. And if you're here to argue that FSU isn't good competition either... you have a point.

Burning Questions

Will Florida State Be Able to Run The Football?

Duke is allowing over 150 rushing yards per game, but that's more telling of who they've played. Northwestern, UCONN, UNC, and Georgia Tech are all run-first teams. This is why, despite those strong rushing opponents and heavy yardage, they're only allowing 3.8 yards per carry and less than one rushing touchdown per game.

Georgia Tech was the first team to average 5 yards per carry in a game against them. Florida State is not (or, at least, has not been) on that level running the ball. They've been one of the worst, yet to break more than 3 yards per carry against anyone since the Georgia Tech game, and that was inflated by their first drive. Maybe the offensive line changes will help, but I'd be pretty surprised to see the run game working.

Is Duke as Good as Their Record Suggests?

No, they're not. But at least they're winning. Maalik Murphy has been a solid starter for Duke, throwing 14 TDs to 5 INTs, but the offense as a whole is averaging about 26 PPG, and it's looked rough at times.

Their defense has been very good, allowing just 17.5 PPG. Georgia Tech scored the most points on them all season, and it was just 24 points. So, this is likely to be a defensive affair. We'll see if Florida State can muster up enough offense to be competitive in this game despite not scoring more than 16 points since the first game.

Can FSU Play Cleanly?

Georgia Tech was able to beat Duke by not turning the ball over and limiting penalties. Their combination of five penalties and no turnovers was the lowest for a Duke opponent all season, so it's no surprise they were able to come out with a win. Then there's Florida State, who had averaged over seven penalties per game in the last five games, with turnovers in every one of those.

For FSU to beat a team on the road that already has a good defense, they can't allow Duke's offense any extra advantages by giving them good field position. If they can force Duke to consistently have to drive the length of the field, they might come away with a win.

Game Forecast

Duke is favored by 3.5 points with an over/under of 42.5, according to FanDuel.

I have zero reason to pick Florida State to win. And yet, I'm doing it.

Duke's record will start to match their level of play at some point this year. They're realistically a 7-5/8-4 team that has gotten off to a hot start and will start to lose some games they shouldn't. It won't be easy for FSU to play a game in a small stadium on a Friday night, but something tells me Maalik Murphy won't give them too many issues.

Maybe it's just because I'll be in attendance and I can't stand the thought of FSU's first loss to Duke EVER coming with me there... so....

Florida State 17, Duke 13

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