Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles at No. 6 Miami Hurricanes

What would it take for Florida State to pull off the upset?

Oct 18, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Brock Glenn (11) prepares to throw the football during the second half of the game against Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images / Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

Florida State enters this weekend needing to win out to be bowl-eligible, which likely won't happen. They can play spoiler on a big season by Miami so far, which needs to be their focus on Saturday night against the undefeated sixth-ranked Hurricanes.

Given FSU's offensive performances this season, they have a tall task ahead of them, but Mario Cristobal has yet to have his big blunder of the season. Could it be in this season's rivalry matchup?

Miami will play host in Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, at 7 p.m. EST on ESPN.

READ MORE: FSU Football Head Coach Mike Norvell Wants Discipline From Team Ahead of Miami

Seminole Headlines

Fallout From FSU's First-Ever Loss to Duke

Florida State's Friday night loss to Duke was the first to the Blue Devils in program history. They say records are meant to be broken, but that's not the kind of record you want to break if you're Mike Norvell. That led Norvell to finally admit to ESPN that he and his staff missed on a lot of evaluations for this team. He's said the veterans who aren't performing well have to earn their minutes, which is something we've been clamoring for.

The youth movement likely won't lead to much more on-field success, especially in a rivalry game on the road, but it's time to evaluate the young guys and see what the team has moving forward. That means it still might be a two-quarterback system with Brock Glenn and Luke Kromenhoek unless Glenn gets off to a hot start.

Weakness vs. Weakness

Florida State's offense has been brutal this season, failing to gain at least 300 yards since November 18th of last season, a stretch of ten games, and averaging 14.8 PPG in that span. Miami's defense hasn't been much better as of late, allowing almost 400 YPG over their last four games and 39 PPG over their last three. One could argue this is the worst defense FSU has played this season.

Miami's QB, Heisman Trophy frontrunner Cam Ward, also has a tendency to be loose with the football and turn it over, while Florida State has only forced three turnovers all year. Miami is likely to take advantage of these situations, but at least there are things to capitalize on for FSU, if they decide to show up.

Mike Norvell's Miami History

The run Florida State went on in the 2022 and 2023 seasons all started because of the Miami game in 2021. Jordan Travis' 4th-and-14 conversion to Andrew Parchment and punching it in the endzone after that kicked off a stretch where FSU went 25-4.

Norvell and FSU are 1-7 in their last eight games since that stretch. Is this the game for Norvell to correct the program's course again? Probably not, but weirder things have happened.

Burning Questions

Is There Any Stopping Miami's Offense?

No. Next question.

I've been told I have to answer this question in full. Sigh.

Miami is averaging 48.3 PPG and 577 YPG. Cam Ward is leading the country in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and yards per game and leading the ACC in passer rating and yards per completion. While Florida State's defense hasn't been bad, it hasn't been good enough to slow down this freight train of an offense, but maybe they can hold them below their scoring average.

Ward does tend to turn the ball over, and Xavier Restrepo was held without a catch last season against FSU. Anything is possible, but it won't come in this game.

Why is the ACC Protecting Miami?

Miami has been the beneficiary of questionable official reviews in three straight games. The Virginia Tech game ended in controversy after a Virginia Tech touchdown on the final play was overturned without much actual video proof. The officials stopped play against Cal to review a potential targeting that would've extended their drive to potentially put the game away. What looked like an obvious targeting was decided to be a clean hit, and Miami would complete the miraculous comeback after being down by as many as 25. Then, against Louisville, what looked to be a fumble by Ward was called an incomplete pass, and that would've turned the tides late in that shootout.

It's been strange to see the ACC heavily protect Miami as they have, and it's likely to continue in this game. But sooner or later, Mario Cristobal will pull a goof, and it'll cost his team.

Game Forecast

Miami is favored by 20.5 points with an over/under of 54.5, according to FanDuel.

I see this game playing similar to Miami's game against USF, where it's competitive in the first half, and FSU fans are talking themselves into pulling off the upset, only to be upset when the 'Noles lay a stinker in the second half. Cam Ward is playing at too high of a level, and FSU's offense has been one of the worst in the country all year. I do think Florida State will score a season-high points, but they'll still lose by 20. Mario Cristobal wants the 2022 embarrassment back in blood.

Miami 45, Florida State 23

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READ MORE: Miami Hurricanes' Head Coach Mario Cristobal Expects The Best Version Of FSU Football

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