Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles at SMU Mustangs

SMU is coming off a 66-point outing... does FSU stand a chance?

Austin Veazey | 5 Hours Ago

Sep 21, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback DJ Uiagalelei (4) warms up before a game against the California Golden Bears at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images / Melina Myers-Imagn Images

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Florida State Seminoles

Florida State has scored 60 points all season, which is somehow not the worst in Division One football. SMU scored 66 points last week... Could this get ugly?

The Seminoles finally picked up their first win last week against previously undefeated Cal, but now they'll play SMU in their first true road game of the season. SMU comes in 3-1 following a 66-42 shootout against TCU, but they've had their own offensive struggles, which may be hard to believe seeing 66 points.

This will be an 8 p.m. EST kickoff in Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas on the ACC Network. It's SMU's first game as a member of the ACC, and it's against one of the biggest brands in the country. Expect the place to be rowdy.

Seminole Headlines

Improving Defense

Florida State's defense has shown up in the last two games, for the most part. There are still communication issues to work through, especially on third downs, but the pass rush finally started getting home against Cal. The Seminoles generated 28 QB pressures last week, more than double their average per game heading into the game.

They've also held their last two opponents to 2.49 yards per carry, a massive improvement from the games against Boston College and Georgia Tech. Joshua Farmer, in particular, has been an animal in the trenches. If FSU's defense keeps rounding into form, maybe this team can steal a few games.

QB Changes Happened for SMU, FSU is Still Waiting For Theirs

SMU made a change in their third game against BYU, going from Redshirt-Junior Preston Stone to RS-Sophomore Kevin Jennings. Their passing attack still hasn't been great, but they're at least trying different things.

The same can't be said for Florida State. They're dying on the DJ Uiagalelei hill to the beat of 15 PPG and under 300 yards per game. This offense is in a rut and needs some sort of spark. There hasn't been much energy, creativity, or anything that makes this offense worth watching to the casual fan. Even if there is uncertainty surrounding the youngsters, Brock Glenn or Luke Kromenhoek, we know DJU isn't helping this team win.

A Beaten and Battered Running Back Room

Florida State's running back room was seen as their biggest strength heading into the season, but they've been hit hard by the injury bug after a slow start. Speedster Jaylin Lucas is out for the year, Roydell Williams is out for the foreseeable future, and Kam Davis and Lawrance Toafili were playing through injuries against Cal.

The running game finally started popping up against Cal, but this is a group that needs to be relied upon. With only a couple of healthy players, will Coach Norvell be able to lean on them like he wants to? It's hard to set up a play-action shot if the running game isn't working, and they'll be going up against an SMU defense that has yet to allow more than 3.8 yards per carry in a game.

Burning Questions

SMU Really Scored 66 Points Last Week????

Last weekend was a bad one for Florida State's opponents. After Memphis walked into Tallahassee and won 20-12 two weeks ago, they lost 56-44 last week... to Navy. And now FSU will be playing a team that scored 66 points, but it was an odd 66 points.

Usually, when you see a point total that high, you expect a large amount of yards. That wasn't really the case. SMU accumulated 375 yards of total offense, but they scored two defensive touchdowns (a pick-six and a fumble return) and a punt return touchdown. Outside of those two defensive touchdowns, they forced another three turnovers to set up good field position for the offense.

Overall, their offense is predicated on the rushing attack. Against Houston Baptist and TCU, they ran like crazy at well over 5.5 YPC. Against Nevada (a game they could've and should've lost) and BYU (a game they did lose), they averaged just 3.1 YPC. Their passing game isn't anything to be scared of yet, so I don't think their offense is as good as seeing a box score with 66 points would suggest.

Who Will Win the Rushing Battle?

The game will really come down to this: which side can run the ball better? When SMU establishes the run, they control the game. When they don't, the game can be unnecessarily close for them. Then there's Florida State, whose passing attack I've just completely lost faith in.

If the Seminoles can hold SMU under 4 YPC, they'll at least give themselves a chance. When you're playing on the road, a chance is all you need.

Will Florida State's Offense Show Signs of Life?

I just need a pulse. A spark. ANYTHING to give me some faith in this offense moving forward. To give the defense a break, they need to sustain drives. They had just two drives longer than three minutes last week and six drives of under two minutes. That just isn't good enough.

The defense has been playing well enough to win games. It's time for the offense to capitalize on that.

Game Forecast

SMU is favored by 5.5 points with an over/under of 46.5, according to FanDuel.

Florida State didn't do enough last week to give me faith in them moving forward despite the win, so my pessimism remains. I don't think SMU's offense is as good as their scoring output has indicated, and this could follow trends of FSU's first few games where their opponent dominates on the ground. And if I haven't stated it enough between the podcast, the previews, and on Twitter, FSU's offense has been brutal to watch. Give me a low scoring affair in the Mustangs favor.

SMU 20, Florida State 10

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