Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles vs. California Golden Bears

Is there any hope left?

Sep 14, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback DJ Uiagalelei (4) passes the ball against the Memphis Tigers during the first half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images / Melina Myers-Imagn Images

At this point, I'm not sure we'll ever see tomahawks on Florida State's helmets. Players aren't rewarded until after the first win, and it's likely only to get harder going forward. What will Florida State have to do to pick up its first win on Saturday?

The Cal Golden Bears come to town with a perfect 3-0 start to the season and have raised a big fuss on Twitter about it. It's a long trip for them, but FSU hasn't looked good anywhere, so that won't matter. In their third straight home game, so hopefully, something goes well for the Seminoles.

This will be a 7 p.m. kickoff in Doak Campbell Stadium on ESPN2. That's Eastern time for the Cal fans who read this article.

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Seminole Headlines

Alex Atkins Returns, But Don't Hold Your Breath

Alex Atkins returns to the sidelines this week after serving a three-game suspension stemming from a recruiting violation. While people are hoping his return will bring some stability to the offensive line and the offense as a whole, don't hold your breath.

During the suspension, Atkins was only not allowed to be in the building on gameday. He was still coaching them throughout the week, recruited them to campus, and his assistant, who has been with him at multiple stops in his career, took over on gameday. I don't expect the offensive line to look all that better on Saturday.

Part of that is because I've lost faith in Atkins' ability to develop offensive linemen. I tweeted after the Memphis game that of the 14 high school offensive linemen he's recruited to campus since the 2021 class, they've combined to play an average of 0.8 snaps per game per player. The breakdown of it by year varies and is shown below.

Obviously, it's not fair to count a 2021 recruit's snaps as part of a 2024 recruit's average snaps per game, so here's a larger breakdown

2021 recruits (2): 2.04 snaps per game per player
2022 (6): 1.67 snaps
2023 (2): 0.21 snaps
2024 (4): 0 snaps

5 players have transferred

— Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG) September 15, 2024

It's one thing to plug holes in the transfer portal, but it's another to rely solely on it, and Atkins hasn't done a good job of either recently.

Atkins also isn't your typical offensive coordinator, as he isn't the primary play-caller. Those responsibilities have been with Mike Norvell since Kenny Dillingham left for Oregon, and that won't change. I really don't think the offense will look different with Atkins back on the sidelines.

Get Ready For Some Pass Rush (Hopefully) (And Also Not Hopefully)

At least Florida State isn't the only team with offensive line issues, as both FSU and Cal are in the bottom four among Power 4 teams in pass-blocking efficiency on Pro Football Focus. Cal does generate solid pressure, though, as Teddye Buchanan and Xavier Carlton each have 2.5 sacks, and Ryan McCullough has generated 14 pressures.

It's a different story on Florida State's side. They'll be facing another run-focused offense with Jaydn Ott, Jaivian Thomas, and Kadarius Calloway. Ott has underwhelmed with just 60 rushing yards on the season, but he's their third leading rusher. Between Ott, Thomas, and Calloway, they've combined for 403 yards on the ground through three games, almost triple FSU's output of 156 rushing yards on the season. When they go back to pass, though, hopefully, Florida State's pass rushers are ready to go.

Status Quo on the Depth Chart

Florida State still hasn't made any changes on the depth chart, much to the dismay of FSU fans. At this point, I'm fully in favor of a youth movement with not much left to look forward to left in this season. Let some of the young guys play and show recruits they can play as freshmen if they're good enough.

The biggest outcry has been at quarterback, with DJ Uiagalelei (more on this later), but positions like running back, wide receiver, linebacker, and offensive line would also benefit from further evaluation. Kam Davis has already seen some quality reps at running back; let's see those snaps expand.

READ MORE: Six Plays That Changed the Game In Loss To Memphis as 'Noles Fall to 0-3

Burning Questions

What Will It Take For There to Be a Change at Quarterback... Or At Any Position?

Part of me is starting to think Coach Norvell won't make a change until he knows the team can't make a bowl game. So, maybe we're stuck with Uiagalelei for a few more games, but if they can't beat Memphis or Boston College, I'm not exactly confident in them beating anyone else on the schedule.

For the record, I don't think Uiagalelei is FSU's biggest problem. He hasn't been good, but the offensive line has been porous, running backs haven't been able to catch out of the backfield, and the wide receivers and tight ends are doing the offense no favors either. But at some point, it benefits the long-term outlook of the program to see what you have in the two freshmen quarterbacks. Brock Glenn has the best chance to see reps, but I don't think anyone is opposed to Luke Kromenhoek seeing some snaps at some point while still keeping his redshirt intact.

Is Cal As Good As Its 3-0 Record Says?

The simple answer is no. But they're not a bad team by any means. Their three wins have come against UC-Davis (FCS), Auburn, and San Diego State. Auburn's Quarterback in that game, Payton Thorne, may actually be worse than DJ Uiagalelei, tossing four interceptions in the loss. Cal still only won that by a touchdown. San Diego State isn't a good team, with their coach leaving for Arizona this past offseason.

Cal does have a good rushing offense, and their quarterback, Fernanda Mendoza, has been good. Since Florida State wasn't able to stop Boston College or Georgia Tech on the ground, I doubt anything will change here.

Can Florida State Contain Cal's Rushing Attack?

Perfect segue! Probably not, though. They were able to contain Memphis to 2.0 yards per carry, but GT and BC were both over 5 YPC. Cal is a much better rushing team than Memphis. Florida State's linebackers (outside of Justin Cryer) haven't been great in their run fills, and the defensive line has been... bad. Especially with so many different options for Cal, it'd be hard for FSU to contain all of them.

Ott has been dealing with an injury but should play in this game. If he's anything like his 2023 self, FSU may be in for a long game.

Game Forecast

Florida State is (somehow) favored by 2.5 points with an over/under of 44.5, according to FanDuel.

As I said last week, picking Florida State is futile until they prove they're worth picking. I don't care if the water breaks have been better (if you know, you know). I'm assuming this will be similar to the Georgia Tech and Boston College games, with Cal controlling the ball on the ground with limited possessions. The under seems like easy money here.

Florida State 15, California 23

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