NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: Florida State Seminoles at Duke Blue Devils

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles try to keep their undefeated streak alive against Duke.

Sep 2, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell before the game against the Boston College Eagles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images / Melina Myers-Imagn Images

The past is in the past and Florida State is fully dialed in on the second half of the season with six games remaining. Following a well-timed BYE week, the Seminoles return to action on Friday night for the first challenge of a two-game road trip in a conference matchup against the Duke Blue Devils. FSU has never been defeated on the football field by Duke, holding a 22-0 all-time record. With that being said, streaks are made to be broken.

The Blue Devils are off to a 5-1 start that includes a double overtime victory over Northwestern and a crazy comeback against North Carolina. Duke's lone loss to this point under first-year head coach Manny Diaz came on the road to Georgia Tech. The team actually held the lead entering the fourth quarter but was outscored 14-0 in the final frame by the Yellow Jackets.

Regardless, Duke has been playing quality football this season. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Maalik Murphy has done enough to manage games on offense, throwing 14 touchdowns to five interceptions. The Blue Devils are a strong group defensively as just one opponent has scored more than 21 points against them through six games. They average 9.7 tackles for loss and three sacks per game.

READ MORE: Florida State Releases Depth Chart For Friday Night Game At Duke

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Blue Devils.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

The second half of the season has arrived and at this point, it's time for Florida State to focus on the future while trying to steal a few of the final six games. The youth movement is continuing leading up to the matchup against Duke as the Seminoles have 13 freshmen or sophomores listed as starters on the two deep on offense or defense. Part of that number is inflated due to FSU having co-starters at multiple positions but it's a sizable increase from the five underclassmen who were regarded as starters prior to the season opener in Ireland.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Brock Glenn provided an evident spark in the loss to Clemson earlier this month. He'll need the cast of supporting characters around him to step up if the Seminoles are going to have a chance to take down Duke on the road. FSU has the worst rushing attack in the FBS, the highest drop rate in the P4, and is set to start its sixth different offensive line combination in seven games. That's not exactly how you set up a young signal-caller, or any player for that matter, for success.

The Blue Devils have been stout on defense in their six outings, only surrending more than 21 points once. They do a good job of creating negative plays and shutting down opposing offenses on third down while taking advantage of turnovers. Considering Florida State's lack of consistency so far, it's hard to see them coming out and lighting up the scoreboard - something the offense has failed to do all season.

That's a major reason I'll be rolling with Duke on Friday night. The Blue Devils haven't been stellar offensively but they're more trustworthy than FSU.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 3-3

Blue Devils 16, Seminoles 13

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

I’m very interested to see how this team comes out and performs Friday night against Duke. It’ll be a mental game more than anything. Has the team completely shut down or is this youth movement bringing some extra life and juice? I think we’ll find out in the first quarter of what the second half of Florida State’s 2024 season will look like.

No way FSU loses its undefeated streak of beating the Blue Devils, right? RIGHT?!

I’ve got the Seminoles keeping this one close throughout and coming away with a win on the road.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-2

Seminoles 20, Blue Devils 17

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

I have zero reason to pick Florida State to win. And yet, I'm doing it.

Duke's record will start to match their level of play at some point this year. They're realistically a 7-5/8-4 team that has gotten off to a hot start and will start to lose some games they shouldn't. It won't be easy for FSU to play a game in a small stadium on a Friday night, but something tells me Maalik Murphy won't give them too many issues.

Maybe it's just because I'll be in attendance and I can't stand the thought of FSU's first loss to Duke EVER coming with me there... so....

2024 Season Prediction Record: 3-3

Seminoles 17, Blue Devils 13

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

When Florida State returns to action against the Duke Blue Devils on Friday night, it will have been 13 days since we last saw the Seminoles in action. So, let's refresh ourselves with a quick mid-season recap on this season of Florida State football. Mike Norvell's Seminoles have trudged through the first half of the 2024 campaign, suffering losses at the hands of Georgia Tech, Boston College, Memphis, SMU and Clemson. FSU's lone win, thus far, came against Cal in a down-to-the-wire contest that saw DC Adam Fuller's defense rise to the occasion. QB DJ Uiagalalei has been the subject of incessant scrutiny, a good portion of which is not entirely misplaced. The experienced quarterback has been downright unable to operate the offense at times and currently averages QBR of 35.7, which currently ranks him 115th in the FBS. He is not all to blame, however, because the Seminoles have been unable to forge any semblance of a rushing attack, the offensive line has had trouble pass-protecting, the defensive line has played far below expectation, and the receiving targets have been widely inconsistent. Struggles across the board have caused the once pre-season ACC favorites to plummet from the AP rankings, relegating the 'Noles to irrelevance on the national stage. Expectations are out the window, playoff hopes have gone with the wind, morale is low, and tensions are high. But,  just before the recent bye week, the Seminoles saw the tiniest sliver of hope that there may be a brighter future on the horizon.

Uiagalelei suffered an injury against SMU that has left him sidelined for the foreseeable future. As such, his backup, redshirt freshman QB Brock Glenn, assumed the role of QB1 in his place. Glenn didn't deliver the kind of performance the 'Noles needed to come out with a win against Clemson, but the young quarterback showcased an ability to push the ball downfield, a knack for improvisation and play-extendability, and a level of intensity, grit and energy that had been absent from the quarterback position since the start of the season. His intensity was infectious, as noted by the observations of both my colleagues and members of the team, and that infectious energy has given rise to a sense of hope among the Florida State faithful that Glenn can put the 'Noles in positions to win down the stretch. The Bye Week has given Norvell and his team a much-needed respite and some extra time to refine Glenn's command of the offense and incorporate a plethora of new faces into the game plan. Practice reports and depth chart changes have highlighted the infusion of young talent in starting roles, including TEs Landen Thomas and Amaree Williams, WR Lawayne McCoy, OL Andre Otto and OL Jaylen Early, among others. It's clear the staff is focused on the future, but there's also hope that the "Free Them Youngins" movement also sparks the stagnant play on both sides of the ball. Whether or not the bye week was enough time to get the new wave of starters up to speed remains to be seen because their first test comes against a formidable Duke opponent.

HC Manny Diaz has the Duke Blue Devils flat out playing winning football through the first six games of his tenure. In line with Diaz's specialty, the 5-1 Duke football program has been prolific on defense, holding opponents to 17.5 points per game and an average of just over 300 yards of offense per game. The Blue Devil defense has been instrumental in allowing their team to outlast the likes of North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Uconn, and Northwestern (all of which have been decided by 10 points or less). Within the context of Friday night's game, Diaz is more than familiar with Norvell and the current Florida State staff. In fact, he defeated Norvell once during his tenure with the University of Miami Hurricanes. His familiarity certainly gives him an edge when planning to slow down an already sputtering FSU offense. On the other side of the ball, transfer QB Malik Murphy has displayed a strong command of the offense, throwing for 1,431 yards, 14 TDs and just 5 INTs. Duke's rushing attack leaves much to be desired, however. The Blue Devils ranked 111th in the FBS with an average of 112.8 yards per game. Duke is far from a conference contender or a national title hopeful, but Diaz certainly has his squad in a rhythm ahead of Friday evening's contest against the Seminoles. 

Surprisingly, Vegas has the spread set at (-3) in favor of the Blue Devils at the time of writing this article, and ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives them a narrow edge (58.8%) over Florida State. On paper, however, this one appears to be headed for a rout. Duke is 5-1 and finding ways to both score points and keep opponents off the scoreboard. Meanwhile, 1-5 FSU is struggling to move the ball with any sort of consistency on offense and is prone to breakdowns or lapses in coverage on defense. Every sign points towards the Blue Devils achieving their first victory over the Seminoles in the 30-year history of the matchup. However, I can't shake this gut feeling that the 'Noles are more than up for the challenge. In fact, I believe that the extra week of preparation combined with the boost in morale from the infusion of young talent is enough to keep this contest close over the course of the evening. Glenn is going to connect on some of the deep balls that fell incomplete in the previous matchup, Florida State's defense (with the exception of a blown coverage or two) is going to keep the Blue Devils relatively in check, and the Seminoles are going to make the one or two crucial plays that will give them a shot at winning this low-scoring contest in dramatic fashion. K Ryan Fitzgerald hits a bomb of a field goal late to steal a win for the 'Noles in Durham. It's college football on a Friday night, after all. Weirder things have happened. 

2024 Season Prediction Record: 3-3

Seminoles 24, Blue Devils 21

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

Duke will be looking to snap their winless record against Florida State, and this could be the season it happens. The Seminoles won against Diaz in the year that ultimately led to him being fired at Miami, among other factors. There could still be a bit of a bad taste in his mouth from the 31-28 loss in 2021.

While Florida State quarterback Brock Glenn added some sort of a spark to the FSU offense, there is just too much trending in the wrong direction with injuries across both sides of the ball and a lack of depth on offense. The ‘Noles only scored twice against Clemson and have struggled to move the ball on the ground all season.

The only way I see them coming out with a win is if the defense can somehow manage to shut down Duke and hold them to under 21 because the Seminoles aren’t likely to win a shootout on the road. Over the past four games, FSU has had 14 sacks so they will need to be on point if they want to pull this one off.

The ‘Noles will need more than two touchdowns, and if they fall behind early, Norvell has shown he’s hesitant this year to rely on his kicker when trying to come back from multiple-score deficits, so that could be the difference in this game.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 2-4

Blue Devils 24, Seminoles 21

Kade Kimble (@kadekimble)

The Seminoles' offense looked improved with Brock Glenn under center, but the squad's issues go beyond the quarterback play. Florida State taking on a 5-1 Duke team on the road will show some flashes, but fall short once again.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 3-3

Blue Devils 27, Seminoles 21

Robert Malcom (@kwrobertm)

I could be crazy for picking FSU to win this, but I was pleasantly surprised (sort of) after their performance against Clemson. Although the team still lost, I was really expecting it to be a blowout. In five of the six games Duke has played, they haven't been able to score more than 26 points, and although the Seminoles haven't done it yet, I feel like this could be the week they finally get the offense rolling in a game.

I think a few things will need to happen if FSU wants to win this game. Florida State needs to win the turnover margin. It goes beyond not throwing interceptions, and as important as that is, the defense needs to put the offense on the field, and I am confident they can. I also think Norvell needs to utilize Ryan Fitzgerald more. We've seen him make ridiculous field goals this season, and he consistently drills 50-yarders in practice, the offense has generally been able to get into field goal range but for a variety of reasons from sending out the punting unit for some of the longer would-be attempts, to turnovers, Fitzgerald hasn't kicked a field goal since the 'Noles took on Memphis.

FSU has the talent to win this game, and I think Glenn has stepped up into a leadership role that might have lit a spark in the team, the question is, will the spark going to turn into a fire and start getting this team to win football games? I think it will, so I'm picking the Seminoles to win.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 3-3

Seminoles 21, Blue Devils 17

Jackson Bakich (@jacksonbakich)

The Florida State Seminoles have a unique set of circumstances in front of them when they face Duke on Friday night. They have an undefeated streak to protect, but there isn’t the slightest pressure in the world. With the youth movement underway, there is nothing to lose at this point. Duke is 5-1, and if they beat FSU and somehow go 1-1 against SMU (at home) and Miami (road), the rest of their schedule is against teams without a winning record. They are still playing for their season. The pressure is on Duke on Friday. As noted in my Key Three Matchups for this game, this is the first time all year FSU is facing a rushing attack outside the top 75. In fact, Duke is not in the top 100. Both the FSU and Duke offenses also stink on third downs. There are favorable situations for Florida State this week.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 3-3

Seminoles 27, Blue Devils 23

CONSENSUS: Florida State (5-3)

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READ MORE: Which Games Could Florida State Realistically Win In The Second Half Of Season?

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