NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as Florida State looks for its fourth straight win over Miami.

Oct 18, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Florida State Seminoles linebacker Justin Cryer (28) looks on prior to the first half of the game against Florida State at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images / Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

Florida State has walked away victorious in its last three outings against the rival Miami Hurricanes. However, things could take a turn back in the other direction when the Seminoles and Hurricanes kick off in Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday night. FSU enters the matchup at just 1-6 while Miami is 7-0 and ranked No. 6 in the country.

This is a game that will feature two offenses that are on different ends of the spectrum. Miami leads the country in total offense (577.3 yards per game) and ranks second in scoring offense (48.3 points per game). On the flip side, the Seminoles are second to last in the FBS in total offense (276.0 YPG), second-worst in scoring offense (15.0 PPG), and fourth-worst in rushing offense (72.9 YPG).

Miami quarterback Cam Ward is a legitimate contender for the Heisman Trophy. Ward has thrown for at least 300 yards and scored four or more total touchdowns in all seven games. On the season, he's completed 169/246 passes (68.7%) for 2,538 yards with 24 touchdowns to five interceptions while rushing 35 times for 190 yards and three more scores. Ward is the most dynamic player the Seminoles have faced all year.

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Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Hurricanes.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

Florida State's offense didn't provide any reason to be optimistic about the team's chances moving forward. The Seminoles have now failed to record 300 total yards in ten consecutive games and haven't scored more than 21 points all year. Those are clear points of concern considering the next opponent on the schedule - Miami - hasn't been held to less than 38 points in any of its seven outings in 2024.

The Hurricanes have one of the most explosive teams in the nation behind the playmaking ability of Cam Ward. The graduate transfer has transformed Miami's offense and has the program in the hunt for a College Football Playoff spot. This is a chance for Ward and the 'Canes to make a statement to college football, even if Florida State is having a down year.

I expect Mario Cristobal and Miami to do everything in their power to turn this game into a blowout. After all, Cristobal has still yet to defeat Florida State as a head coach but I think that changes on Saturday.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-3

Hurricanes 48, Seminoles 13

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

I’m concerned about this one ladies and gentlemen. And I’m speaking specifically about how high this score could go in the wrong direction for FSU. This team hasn’t shown us improvement to give me any kind of hope for an upset even with it being a rivalry game where you’d usually see a closer game between two college teams that dislike one another.

I’m interested in seeing how Brock Glenn responds after a rough outing against Duke. It’s going to be a whole different environment than what he’s played in the last two games being Doak Campbell Stadium and Duke. Hard Rock won’t be like we’ve seen it in the past, this is their Super Bowl, it’s going to be quite rowdy.

I’m worried this one gets fairly ugly and pretty quick with how Miami’s offense has been looking this season behind Cam Ward and the targets he has to go to on air. FSU’s secondary is going to have to show up again two weeks in a row with strong play but this will be a different animal from what they faced last weekend with the Blue Devils. If Mike Norvell has any trickery up his sleeve, I suggest he utilize whatever they can to throw at the Hurricanes to get some points. Let’s see what happens in Coral Gables!

2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-3

Hurricanes 54, Seminoles 17

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

I see this game playing similar to Miami's game against USF, where it's competitive in the first half, and FSU fans are talking themselves into pulling off the upset, only to be upset when the 'Noles lay a stinker in the second half. Cam Ward is playing at too high of a level, and FSU's offense has been one of the worst in the country all year. I do think Florida State will score a season-high points, but they'll still lose by 20. Mario Cristobal wants the 2022 embarrassment back in blood.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 3-4

Hurricanes 45, Seminoles 23

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

If you asked me to write this score prediction prior to the start of the season, the narrative would probably have been drastically different. For the first time in years, the pre-season promise of an FSU-UM game with national implications was the highest it has been since before I can remember. I probably would've painted the picture of two bitter rivals contending for conference dominance, harkening back to the FSU-Miami matchups of old where titles and national prominence were on the line. For once, it seemed like the once college football powerhouses were going to face off for much more than bragging rights. The matchup we are tracking towards now, however, is far from that all-important ACC clash we initially envisioned. Instead, the narrative has been flipped completely on its head. It's the story of one team falling from grace after achieving a historic conference championship season and another team rising to meet its highest expectations in decades. Don't let the rankings, records, and statistics fool you, however. Emotions will still be riding high and a note of hostility will fill the South Florida air. This is still Florida State-Miami, after all. 

On Saturday night, the #6 ranked Miami Hurricanes will host the 1-6 Florida State Seminoles under the lights of Hard Rock Stadium. Despite showcasing improvements on the defense and in the run game the week prior, the Seminoles were unable to overcome the hurdles of self-inflicted mistakes, falling at the hands of Duke for the first time in program history and moving to 1-6 on the season. The offense continues to struggle to put points on the board, averaging the nation's second-worst scoring output with an average of 15.0 points per game, and Mike Norvell's team remains unable to find ways to win games. On the other sideline, the Hurricanes are finding their rhythm with star transfer QB Cam Ward at the helm of the offense. Miami is averaging 577.3 offensive yards per game, which ranks as the nation's best, and 48.3 points per game, which ranks #2. Florida State's defense, which has improved as of late, does have what it takes to contain the Heisman-contending QB, at least early on. But, Ward is willing this team to victory week in and week out, and that may be more than enough for the Hurricanes to remain unscathed following Saturday's contest.

ESPN's Matchup Predictor is all but certain that the Hurricanes are going to come out on top, giving Miami a 91.4% chance of victory. Meanwhile, Vegas' (-21.5) point spread in favor of the 'Canes shares in that sentiment. If FSU was coming off of a victory against Duke, I might have put more credence in the possibility of an upset. Even still, I'm praying for a miracle, but I'm not expecting one whatsoever. Someone shared the following sentiment online, and I think it encapsulates the nature of this matchup perfectly: FSU's defense is good enough to make this a game, but the offense is bad enough to make sure it isn't. Sure, Cristobal's defensive group is stingy on the ground, yielding just 92.0 rushing yards per game, and the secondary has been porous, allowing 214.1 passing yards per game. These statistics are relatively inconsequential, however, because regardless of whether it's Glenn, Kromenhoek, or Uiagalalei at the helm, the Seminoles have been unable to reach the 20 point threshold in six straight games. Poor rushing performances, countless drops from wide receivers, and self-inflicted mistakes are plaguing the Florida State offense on a consistent basis. If that trend continues, FSU's defense will be trying to hold on for as long as it can, hoping the offense is able to simply keep pace with the high-scoring 'Canes. TLDR: Put that phone on Do Not Disturb, stay off of social media, grab some good food and cold drinks, strap in and hope for the best. 

2024 Season Prediction Record: 3-4

Hurricanes 42, Seminoles 17

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

The year that Miami fans have been praying for quite some time has arrived. They have a potential Heisman candidate at quarterback in Cam Ward, who has thrown for four touchdowns in each of the past four games, and Florida State has had a disastrous 1-6 season wrought with injuries and miscued transfer additions that have left the ‘Noles in the direct line of sight for Hurricane Cristobal, who was at risk of losing his job after a very tepid tenure until down in Coral Gables.

This one could very likely turn into the bloodbath that Vegas has predicted (21 points), sending the garnet and gold bus back to Tallahassee with yet another flat tire on its resume.

However, it is a rivalry game and anything can happen in the matchup. The Seminoles would love nothing more than to knock the No. 6 Hurricanes out of the ACC race.

In reality, that is unlikely. Miami is averaging 50 points a game and Florida State has struggled to break 20 all season. If the ‘Noles can’t contain the Miami offense there is a good chance that they will hang 50 on the Seminoles.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 3-4

Hurricanes 45, Seminoles 16

Kade Kimble (@kadekimble)

Florida State is best off playing young talent, but that will only go so far against No. 6-ranked Miami. The Seminoles' season is all but last as they hoist a 1-6 record and the morale can't be too high heading into a rivalry matchup as a three-touchdown underdog.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-3

Hurricanes 38, Seminoles 6

Robert Malcom (@kwrobertm)

This week isn't just going to be any other game for the Seminoles. With the 2024 season more or less over, this squad still has a chance to win the State of Florida, and even though it has no real postseason implications, it would still be something for the program. The reality of the situation though, is that for the first time since 2020, the Miami Hurricanes will most likely beat the Florida State Seminoles. No matter what angle you look at it from, even if this dysfunctional FSU offense miraculously gets going on Saturday, even if the defense can slow Miami down, this Miami team hasn't scored less than 38 points all season. The last time Florida State scored more than three touchdowns was against UF when they scored 24 points in the Swamp. 

It's hard to be optimistic when I haven't seen anything that resembles a winning football team since the spring. While I do believe in miracles, I think Florida State will need a few of them on Saturday in order to win.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 3-4

Hurricanes 42, Seminoles 10

Jackson Bakich (@jacksonbakich)

Florida State’s pass defense is respectable top-40). Its run defense is abhorrent (bottom 40). Miami quarterback Cam Ward is very good (most TDs and yards in nation). Their rushing attack is respectable (top 40).

The Seminoles will have to pick their poison: stop the run or stop the pass. Based on the information I have provided, I expect the Hurricanes to run the ball more.FSU, going into a hostile environment with a redshirt freshman QB, will likely run the ball too.

Not only do the numbers favor the run for the Hurricanes in this scenario, but turnovers (which usually come in the form of interceptions) and special teams miscues might be the only realistic chance that the ‘Noles have of winning this ball game. I see a close first half (due to the extensive use of the ground game from both teams), but the ‘Canes pull away midway through the 3rd quarter.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 3-4

Hurricanes 37, Seminoles 13

CONSENSUS: Miami (8-0)

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