NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: Florida State Seminoles at No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as Florida State travels to Notre Dame as a heavy underdog.

Oct 26, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell looks on from field against the Miami Hurricanes during the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Florida State has three games remaining in its 2024 season and the focus has turned to a tough road matchup against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday night. This is arguably the hardest game this year for the Seminoles with the team away from home, on a five-game losing streak, and facing a top-10 opponent that has College Football Playoff aspirations to protect.

The Fighting Irish enter the game at 7-1 under third-year head coach Marcus Freeman. Notre Dame was upset by Northern Illinois early in the season but has scored more points than Florida State has in any game this season in each of its seven wins. Defensively, the Irish sport one of the top units in the country as they rank eighth in total defense, sixth in turnovers forced, fourth in passing defense, and fourth in scoring defense.

Notre Dame also has a strong rushing offense, led by quarterback Riley Leonard and running back Jeremiyah Love. The Fighting Irish average 215.6 rushing yards per game, which doesn't bode well for a Florida State defense that has surrendered more than that mark in losses to Miami (230) and North Carolina (289).

READ MORE: FSU Fan Support Plummets as Mike Norvell Faces Historic Losing Season

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Fighting Irish.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

In a season of bad losses, last Saturday's defeat against North Carolina felt like true rock bottom for Florida State. The 24-point drubbing tied for Mike Norvell's worst home loss in Tallahassee in four years and the Seminoles flat-out quit in the second half. Norvell basically said as much in his post-game press conference without saying it. This team is lost and there's no fixing it in these final three games.

I continue to have zero faith in Florida State's offense's ability to operate. It's a unit of moving parts with every position group except the tight ends having at least one player out for the season. The offensive line could very well end up starting its ninth different combination in ten games which is impressive in a laughably bad way.

I'm also questioning the effort on defense as we saw the secondary make a few business decisions against the Tar Heels. To add to that, redshirt junior defensive end Patrick Payton has one assisted tackle in his last 108 snaps in a pair of losses where the opponents ran the ball a combined 95 times. Whatever the reason, Payton hasn't risen to the lofty expectations that surrounded him during the preseason. The Seminoles will also be without sophomore linebacker Justin Cryer, one of the lone players who has shown any semblance of leadership.

Considering that Notre Dame is statistically a better rushing team than the Hurricanes and Tar Heels, along with having a dual-threat quarterback in Riley Leonard, I expect Florida State to get run all over once again. The Seminoles seem to have let the results of the season bring them down and that could be a killer against the most talented team they'll play all year. With this one falling on the road, don't be surprised if it's a sizable loss.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 6-3

Fighting Irish 44, Seminoles 6

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

You think UNC did a good job of rushing against FSU last weekend? Get ready for this Saturday night against the Irish. Not only do the Irish have two capable backs to do damage, the third is their quarterback Riley Leonard, who leads the team in touchdowns and is a menace with his legs who will certainly want some revenge after his loss during his game against the Seminoles last season.

In the past, FSU has done a poor job dealing with quarterbacks like this and I’m expecting another game with the same result if not worse. Yes, we know the Seminoles can’t score on offense but the low energy from that side of the ball is infecting over to the defense, certainly on third downs.

The only time this game will be close is when the captains meet midfield and do the coin toss. After that, it’s going to be a long chilly night in South Bend for Mike Norvell and Florida State.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 6-3

Fighting Irish 43, Seminoles 9

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

This game will not be close. Notre Dame and Marcus Freeman have won their games by an average of 31 PPG since that embarrassing Northern Illinois loss. So they're winning their games by twice as many points as FSU scores. So... yeah. Bold prediction: the Seminoles will never enter the red zone. I'll be watching the FSU Basketball game against Rice instead, and I'd encourage others to join.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 5-4

Fighting Irish 45, Seminoles 6

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

There's no sense in dragging this one out. Florida State is 1-8, and every statistic out there reflects as much. The 'Noles are averaging 14.4 points per game, the nation's second-worst scoring average behind only Air Force. Not to mention, the Seminoles have failed to surpass the 16-point threshold since Week 0 against the Yellow Jackets. Despite improvements on the defensive side of the ball (albeit minute improvements), the 'Noles have been unable to spark the offense regardless of who has been at quarterback. The rushing attack averages 76.1 yard per game, which ranks 132nd in the country, and the passing game has fallen to the 108th rank in recent weeks. Put simply, this is a Florida State team with a stagnant offense and an inability to go toe-to-toe for all four quarters. It has not mattered who the opponent on the other side has been. Mike Norvell's team is playing some bad football at the moment. 

Now, the Seminoles must step into a hostile environment in South Bend, Indiana, to face a Notre Dame Fighting Irish squad that has more than regained their footing since their upset loss at the hands of Northern Illinois. The Irish have come back strong, with an offense that ranks within the top 20 scoring offenses in the country and a stalwart defense that ranks 4th in points against (12.1 points per game). HC Marcus Freeman's group hasn't scored less than 28 points since their loss to the Huskies. Despite some inconsistencies from QB Riley Leonard through the passing game, Notre Dame's rushing game is their strong suit on offense. RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame's leading rusher, has tallied 9 TDs on the ground — someone to keep an eye on come Saturday. Long story short, Freeman's group has played with a vengeance, undeterred by the countless people that have written them off. On paper, Florida State should be a cupcake for them. 

ESPN's FPI Matchup Predictor favors the Irish heavily, showing a staggering 96.5% in their favor. Vegas oddsmakers are also heavily favoring Notre Dame with a spread currently set at (-24.5). Notre Dame in November — in the shadow of "Touchdown Jesus" — is a tall order even when your football team is good. The Florida State Seminoles, in their current form, are most certainly not. FSU ranks nearly dead last in every meaningful statistic, they have shown little to no improvement week over week, thus giving me little reason to believe that they're even capable of pulling off a miracle. Every fiber in my being hurts to write these words (just ask anyone), but reality sets in for everyone at one moment or another. Irish win big. 

2024 Season Prediction Record: 5-4

Fighting Irish 49, Seminoles 17

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

There isn’t much I can say about Florida State winning this game. I hate to push doubt onto the team, but the offense just isn’t there. It’ll be interesting to see the game plan, but with so many injuries across the board, the experienced talent just doesn’t match up enough to push FSU over the hump to get a win.

A prime-time matchup on the road to knock off a top-10 team could get the Seminoles going, but I think that if they fall behind by more than two scores, then it will just be a head-hunting competition by Notre Dame on FSU’s two young quarterbacks. The blame doesn’t solely fall on them. However, there has been a widespread disconnect between players thought to have been capable of remaining atop of the ACC and guys who are just too young to compete with the speed of the game at this point.

Notre Dame is favored by 26 with an over/under of 42.5, which doesn’t add up. FSU has not scored over 21 points in one game this season, and the Irish will likely drop at least 35. The defense on the ‘Nole side of the ball has given them chances to win games, but there has just been nothing working on the offensive side of the ball.

It is no secret that Notre Dame will win this one, but the question is: by how much?

2024 Season Prediction Record: 5-4

Fighting Irish 41, Seminoles 14

Kade Kimble (@kadekimble)

The Florida State Seminoles are 1-8 and heading into a road contest against No. 10-ranked Notre Dame. What could go wrong? Everything -- like it has all season. The Seminoles will get blown out and their disastrous season will only get worse as they inch one game closer to double-digit losses.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 6-3

Fighting Irish 42, Seminoles 7

Robert Malcom (@kwrobertm)

This game could go one of two ways, the first being the Seminoles change things up this week, playing aggressively on offense and taking deep shots downfield. At this point in the season, Florida State has absolutely nothing to lose. This team is already going down in the history books as one of the worst teams in program history. Factor in the countless injuries this team has faced, and one can only imagine what morale is like in the locker room. I've been hoping a spark would ignite in this team, and it hasn't yet, but if it's going to, this would be the week to do it. I can't imagine Notre Dame is expecting greatness to come in on Saturday, and that's exactly why it's the perfect opportunity to come in and show what the future of the program is going to look like. After all, Notre Dame's only loss of the season came at the hands of Northern Illinois in week 2. Since then, they've done some serious damage to fairly decent teams.

This leads me to the second scenario, the more realistic of the two. Notre Dame blows the Seminoles out of the water. This is a team that has shown no mercy to some solid teams this season, and as much as it pains me to say it, FSU just isn't even a solid team this year. This is a bad football team playing one of the ten best in the country, and I would expect the result to look like a top 10 team playing one of the nation's worst.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 5-4

Fighting Irish 48, Seminoles 10

Jackson Bakich (@jacksonbakich)

Moreover, Florida State has not been able to run the ball effectively against good or even mediocre run defenses (ND is top 50), and the Irish also have a top-4 pass defense to go alongside it. There aren't many avenues where the 'Noles have an advantage. Therefore, some unforced errors from Notre Dame coupled with some flukey special teams plays and perhaps even some favorable calls from the men in stripes might get FSU over the finish line.

This game will not be close. As I've stated in previous articles, there's too much on the line for ND to slip up. They were upset by Northern Illinois earlier this year at home, and since then have put together some convincing performances. The Fighting Irish's top two rushers average 6.3 yards a pop, and FSU simply cannot stop the run. And when they can't stop the run, they lose by at least two scores. Every time the Seminoles have held their opponent under 200 yards rushing, they have kept the game within one score or won the contest outright.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 5-4

Fighting Irish 42, Seminoles 16

CONSENSUS: Notre Dame (8-0)

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