NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: Florida State Seminoles at SMU Mustangs

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as Florida State prepares for its first true road game.

Sep 21, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell and his team watch the time tick off of the clock during the fourth quarter against the California Golden Bears at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images / Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Florida State finally has a victory under its belt but the schedule won't get any easier from here with the team in Dallas for its first true road game of the season. The Seminoles will play four of their next six games away from home starting with a conference matchup against the SMU Mustangs. It will mark the ACC opener for the Mustangs after the program joined the conference over the summer.

SMU is off to a 3-1 start with its lone loss coming to No. 22 BYU. Since then, the Mustangs have made a quarterback change, and redshirt sophomore Kevin Jennings led the team to a 66-42 victory over TCU last weekend. In the win, SMU's defense accounted for two touchdowns and the team returned a punt for a score. Jennings mostly managed the game but didn't commit a turnover and finished as the second-leading rusher on the team.

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The Mustangs have an explosive defense and are tied for first in the country with three defensive touchdowns. SMU is only allowing 95.3 yards on the ground per game and limiting opponents to an average of 22.8 points per game. Offensively, the Mustangs score 42.3 points per game behind a rushing attack that averages 206 yards in four outings.

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Mustangs.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

It was ugly and hard to watch as Florida State's offensive ineptitude continued despite the team winning its first game. The Seminoles did just about everything they could do to lose the contest as DJ Uiagalelei threw an interception, the offense scored on just two out of 11 drives, and the unit went three-and-out with a chance to end things on their terms. Luckily, the defense stepped up in a big way in critical situations, holding Cal out of the end zone and racking up seven sacks despite giving up over 400 yards.

Will a victory against the Golden Bears lead to Florida State figuring out its struggles? It's hard for me to answer that with the Seminoles yet to score 20 points or more in a game in five weeks. In fact, the offense has compiled just 60 points all season and now they're matched up against a team that put up 66 points in just four quarters. Head coach Mike Norvell's relentlessness to stick with his plan just isn't working right now.

On the other hand, SMU recognized its early season struggles and wasn't afraid to make a quarterback change - benching a multiyear starter for a redshirt sophomore. In his first start of the season, Kevin Jennings led the team to more points than any other outing so far in 2024. Sometimes, adjustments can work out in your favor rather than continuing to push in a direction that is beginning to mirror insanity.

I'll take the Mustangs in Dallas. I expect a somewhat strong showing by the defense but Florida State's anemic offense will doom the team once again. Maybe a fourth loss will be enough encouragement for Norvell to finally do something different.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 1-3

Mustangs 31, Seminoles 17

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

Can Florida State keep the winning streak alive? I’m worried after last week’s game with how ugly it looked throughout against a not so great Cal team. FSU will be facing a better team on Saturday in their first hostile environment in a true road game experience in Dallas. I think if FSU can’t find any kind of juice on offense and show consistency, SMU is eventually going to score enough to not make it close going into the fourth quarter. FSU’s defense can try to carry as hard as it can, eventually though it comes onto the other side of the ball to keep this one close. We’ll see but they haven’t shown me enough to prove they can pull this off.

I predicted the Seminoles to win last week but this week I’ve got them losing and going to 1-4.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 2-2

Mustangs 28, Seminoles 16

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

Florida State didn't do enough last week to give me faith in them moving forward despite the win, so my pessimism remains. I don't think SMU's offense is as good as their scoring output has indicated, and this could follow trends of FSU's first few games in which their opponent dominates on the ground. And if I haven't stated it enough between the podcast, the previews, and on Twitter, FSU's offense has been brutal to watch. Give me a low-scoring affair in the Mustangs' favor.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 1-3

Mustangs 20, Seminoles 10

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

As the final seconds ticked off of the clock in Doak Campbell Stadium last week, it was the Seminoles who reigned supreme and secured their first victory of the 2024 season. Their performance was far from perfect, but the win gave the 'Noles a much needed boost in confidence and morale, which they hope will inspire a wave of energy and momentum throughout the weeks to come. Celebrations for Mike Norvell and his group were short-lived, however, because the forecast of a major hurricane headed straight for Tallahassee threatened to disrupt a much needed week of preparation, and the 'Noles need every opportunity to address their issues before taking on an SMU squad that is manhandling opponents.s.

FSU's victory over the Golden Bears still left much to be desired, specifically on offense. Led by QB DJ Uiagalelei, the Seminole offense is still struggling to find the right mix of production. Their rushing game, which surpassed the 100-yard mark for the first time in a game this season, still ranks among the worst in the FBS (131st). Meanwhile, the passing game took a significant dip against California, notching just 177 yards through the air, which falls well below the season average. The most troubling statistic, however, is FSU's inability to find the end zone; at the time of writing this prediction, Florida State possesses the nation's 124th ranked scoring average at 15.5 points per game.

The Seminoles simply cannot turn drives into points and the win-loss record is a direct reflection of that struggle. In fact, there's an argument to be made that their 14-9 victory over California was more so a testament to their defensive prowess than anything else. If Florida State wants any chance at keeping up with an SMU team that is averaging 42.3 points per game, the defense will have to find a way to slow down the Mustangs' rushing offense, which is currently averaging 206.0 yards per game. Luckily, DC Adam Fuller and his defense have found their groove as of late, and the defensive line in particular is beginning to flex its muscles. DT Joshua Farmer and the interior of Florida State's defensive line will be called upon once again to win the battle in the trenches and slow down SMU's recent scoring onslaught. The rest will be up to the Florida State offense, who must find a way to avoid self-inflicted mistakes and sustain drives that result in points. 

Florida State will welcome SMU to the ACC on Saturday night, but it's the Mustangs who threaten to serve FSU its fourth loss in just Week 5 of the college football season. Vegas oddsmakers are predicting against the 'Noles for the first time this season, placing the line at (-6.5) in SMU's favor. ESPN's Matchup Predictor has followed suit, giving the Mustangs an astounding 71.4% chance of victory, as well. Despite riding the wave of momentum from the win against California a week ago, Mike Norvell's Seminoles are still fighting offensive inconsistencies, injuries, and a plethora of other detractors. Meanwhile, the SMU Mustangs are boasting a fast paced, high scoring offense that is handling opponents with relative ease as of late.

Much like my peers, I was withholding predictions in favor of the 'Noles until they proved their ability to win, but the victory a week ago did little to change my outlook. I believe the Florida State defense, which found its footing against the Tigers and the Golden Bears, will slow down the Mustangs to some extent, but they can't do it alone. FSU's offense is struggling to move the ball, much less put up points, and I don't think they possess the consistency to go toe to toe with SMU for all four quarters. Florida State will undoubtedly carry the momentum and energy from last week's morale-boosting win, and hopefully, pride for their city, which is suffering through an unprecedented storm, will have them playing with an even greater sense of purpose. However, the Mustangs are simply playing better football, and their offense will just be too great a hurdle for the Seminoles to overcome. 

2024 Season Prediction Record: 1-3

Mustangs 31, Seminoles 17

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

The energy the team brought to practice this week wasn’t as high as last, but the Seminoles looked competitive and had flashes on both sides of the ball. SMU hung 66 points on TCU last week, and their defense had multiple turnovers, so already scarce points for the ‘Noles could be harder to find than ever.

If FSU’s defense plays anything like they did against Cal, then that number should be lower, especially if DJ Uiagalelei and the offense can sustain drives and score, keeping their defense fresh and off the field.

The Mustangs are a near-touchdown favorite, and the over/under is at 47.5. So that would be 27-20 SMU. That seems probable, but FSU has struggled to get in the endzone and relied much in part on their defense in the 14-9 win over Cal. I think 27-17 is more likely if Florida State can limit its turnovers and create plays on defense. I hope I’m wrong but I just haven’t seen enough on-field production outside of Lawrance Toafili and Ja’Khi Doulgas to pick them to win on the road.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 0-4

Mustangs 27, Seminoles 17

Kade Kimble (@kadekimble)

Outside of a loss to now-ranked BYU, SMU has been strong offensively this season. Nearly a touchdown favorite, the Mustangs are hosting Florida State on their home field. The Seminoles haven’t scored more than 14 points in the last three games and SMU will be able to handily defeat Florida State.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 1-3

Mustangs 31, Seminoles 18

Robert Malcom (@kwrobertm)

Even going into the season I thought this was going to be an interesting game for FSU. Facing a new ACC foe in their first conference game of the season, as well as being the first true road game for the Seminoles following three consecutive home games is going to be a challenge. This becomes even more of a challenge considering SMU has been able to put up big numbers throughout the season for the most part.

Following their 66-44 win over TCU, I have a feeling that SMU is going to be looking to make a statement in their first ACC matchup. I've said it about previous opponents and I'm going to say it again. I don't think FSU will be able to outscore SMU.

While I would be shocked if SMU were to put up anywhere near 66 points simply due to the defensive improvements from FSU, I haven't seen the offense take the strides needed to be a winning team. 

Simply put, I think this team is heading in the right direction, but I don't think things have clicked enough for them to come out on top this weekend.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 1-3

Mustangs 24, Seminoles 13

Jackson Bakich (@jacksonbakich)

With Florida State riding some momentum it gained after last week’s win against Cal, the ‘Noles have a chance to change the tide of their season with a big win on the road against SMU in Dallas. I don’t think FSU wins, but I could see them covering the 6.5 margin.

Although the Seminoles' run defense has shown some improvement, the Mustangs have a solid ground attack themselves. The Florida State pass defense will need to show up when given the opportunity. If this game was in Doak, I might have FSU winning. However, a raucous crowd in Dallas puts SMU over the edge for me.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 1-3

Mustangs 21, Seminoles 17

CONSENSUS: SMU (8-0)

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