NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Florida Gators

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles try to end the 2024 season on a positive note.

Oct 5, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell reacts before the game against the Clemson Tigers at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images / Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Florida State's final game of the 2024 season has arrived with the Seminoles and Florida Gators set to duke it out under the lights in Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday evening. The 'Noles are coming off their second victory of the year but will need an even better performance to have a chance at keeping up with the Gators, who have found a rhythm with back-to-back wins against top-25 opponents (LSU, Ole Miss).

Florida enters the matchup at 6-5 under third-year head coach Billy Napier. Despite facing one of the toughest schedules in all of college football, The Gators are already bowl-eligible for the second time in three years. UF has played six ranked teams in 2024 and is coming off a stretch that included five ranked opponents in six games.

The Gators are led by true freshman quarterback DJ Lagway. The former five-star prospect has completed 79/135 passes for 1,477 yards with nine touchdowns to six interceptions while rushing 42 times for 105 yards. On the other side of the ball, Florida has 17 takeaways on the season and has forced a turnover in ten of 11 games. They are top-40 in sacks per game (2.7, No. 23) and tackles for loss per game (6.2, No. 40).

READ MORE: Florida State Seniors Reflect On Careers In Tallahassee Ahead Of Final Game

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Gators.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

At long last, Florida State's season finale has arrived. This year has flown by at times and felt like a drag during others. It certainly feels strange to be wrapping it up in November after how far the Seminoles climbed in 2022 and 2023 but we are where we are.

On paper, it felt like FSU garnered some momentum with its win against Charleston Southern last weekend. With that being said, the offensive line continued to struggle, giving up three sacks and eight tackles for loss. Defensively, the Seminoles surrendered 218 passing yards to one of the worst FCS teams in that metric.

The Gators are heating up at the right time following upset victories over LSU and Ole Miss. They haven't been very good away from home this season but some of their tougher matchups came outside of Gainesville.

It should be fun to watch the duel between Luke Kromenhoek and DJ Lagway, two quarterbacks who could be the face of the rivalry during the coming years. Regardless, I think Florida wins this somewhat decisively as Billy Napier gets his first win against Mike Norvell.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 8-3

Gators 34, Seminoles 10

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

We’ve made it to the last game of the season. Feels weird to say in late November after the season the Seminoles had last season with decently high expectations to make another postseason run.

I’m interested to see how long FSU can last in this game. The Gators have shown they can fight and beat good teams. On the other hand, Florida State hasn’t been able to do that all year. Could there be some momentum to ride after a win? Potentially. But let’s be honest, it was Charleston Southern. An awful FCS team…

It will be nice to finally say goodbye to this season. It’s been a brutal ride since late August. Sayonara 2024 FSU football. You will not be missed.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 8-3

Gators 31, Seminoles 13

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

As much as I would love for the Seminoles to come away with a win against the swamp lizards, I don't see that happening. The sooner this game is over, the sooner this season is over. And that can't come soon enough.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 7-4

Gators 27, Seminoles 10

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

Prior to the start of the 2024 season, the narratives surrounding Florida State and Florida were strikingly different. In Tallahassee, the 'Noles were expected to pick up where they left off in 2023 by repeating as ACC Champions and trailblazing a path into the newly-formed 12-team College Football Playoff. Meanwhile in Gainesville, the outlook was grim. HC Billy Napier's seat was warming up, and the Gators, who were staring down the barrel of the nation's hardest schedule, appeared to be on a crash course with a postseason coaching search. The University of Florida faithful were just hopeful that their prized recruit, five-star QB DJ Lagway, would stick around to see them through the rebuilding process.

The realities of the 2024 season, however, flipped these narratives on their heads. Entering Saturday's season finale, FSU is limping its way to the finish line. The Seminoles are a 2-win team that has dismissed a handful of coordinators and witnessed its recruiting class slowly wither away. The goodwill HC Mike Norvell had generated over seasons prior has been all but depleted, and the Florida State faithful grow skeptical with each passing week. The Gators, on the other hand, have toppled SEC contenders in recent weeks en route to bowl eligibility, which has since prompted the University of Florida administration to announce their commitment to Napier. In keeping with tradition, the Gators and the Seminoles are set to bring the football season to a close under the lights in Tallahassee on Saturday night, but the stage is set for a far different matchup than we initially expected. 

ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives the Gators an 82.8% chance at victory. The 17.2% in favor of the 'Noles is far more than I expected, especially for a 2-win team that is facing an opponent that has slain the likes of LSU and Ole Miss in recent weeks. The slight boost in odds is emblematic of the bitter rivalry that underscores this matchup, and I do believe the 'Noles will play with more intensity and fire than we have seen all season long. Expect the 'Noles to come out with elevated spirits, fueled by the fanfare of Senior Night and backed by the passion of a sold-out home crowd under the lights of Doak Campbell Stadium. That influx of passion, however, isn't enough to overcome the hurdles or patch the holes that have plagued this team throughout 2024. There's no need to take a deeper dive into the numbers. It's common knowledge that Florida State was playing statistically poor football far before the injuries and coaching departures began to pile up.

Meanwhile, the Gators have found something as of late with their young quarterback DJ Lagway. Napier's team has shown a knack for finding ways to win in close games against top-notch competition. Florida State lacks the ability to trade blows and keep pace in high-scoring contests, and they are far from a top-notch competitor. These two bitter rivals will exchange their fair share of punches in the early game, but the team from down south will ultimately make the plays necessary to put the game out of reach and nearly cover the (-14) line that Vegas oddsmakers expect. As painful as this is to predict, the Gators will secure their above .500 record with their first victory over the 'Noles since 2021. Meanwhile, FSU will get a head start on the off-season, completing their 2024 campaign on Saturday night with a record of 2-10.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 7-4

Gators 31, Seminoles 13

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

The Seminoles close out the season against the Florida Gators on Senior Night at home. The odds favor Florida, but anything can happen in a rivalry game. It’ll be a battle between two freshmen quarterbacks Luke Kromenhoek and DJ Lagway, both of whom have shown promise at the end of the year.

Turnovers will probably be the deciding factor if FSU wants to pull off the upset. The environment favors Florida State, but for how long if Lagway gets rolling? The FSU offense will need to maintain possession of the ball and keep Florida’s young quarterback off the field.

I’m not sure it is going to be pretty for Florida State, but Kromenhoek has progressed throughout the year. It is an interesting one to predict but I think UF has the upper hand.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 7-4

Gators 42, Seminoles 14

Kade Kimble (@kadekimble)

What better way to cap off a two-win season than being blown out by their rivals? Nothing has gone Florida State’s way this season and that’ll continue until substantial changes are made within the program. The Gators will secure bragging rights for the next year, at least.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 8-3

Gators 38, Seminoles 10

Robert Malcom (@kwrobertm)

As the final game of the season approaches, I'm sure all Florida State fans hope to end this disaster of a season on a high note, winning what is arguably the most important game of the season. Being the rivalry game that it is, there's no telling what could happen. There is no doubt in my mind that the Gators are the clear favorite going into the game, as they are coming off two major upset wins over SEC rivals LSU and Ole Miss, however, I wouldn't be shocked if Florida State keeps it closer than expected.

Following last week's win over Charleston Southern, I think there were some clear signs that the team is headed in the right direction, most notably at quarterback as Mike Norvell is seemingly going all in with Luke Kromenhoek. I think the environment should also play a big factor in the game, as the Gators have only played four games away from home this year, losing three.

The turnover margin could be the defining factor in this game, as the 'Noles will need a few takeaways, putting the offense in a position to score if they want to win the game, or at the very least keep it competitive.

As I said before, anything is possible this weekend, and if the Seminoles lose to the Gators this weekend, it would be the first year Mike Norvell loses to both in-state rivals in the same season, which makes the stakes even higher.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 7-4

Gators 31, Seminoles 17

Jackson Bakich (@jacksonbakich)

I might be really wrong about this one. I probably will be very wrong about this one. Call it a hunch. Call it a shot in the dark. Call it a gut feeling. Death, taxes, rivalry weekend craziness.

Florida State football is due for things to go its way. FSU is not “deserving” of anything to go its way as they have been awful all year. But, they are simply due to have some good luck in their favor. It will take craziness for the Seminoles to win this game: fumbles, interceptions, special team blunders, short fields, and perhaps poor execution from The Boys of Old Florida.

My prediction is counting on it. But I will stand alongside everyone else shocked if it happens.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 7-4

Seminoles 21, Gators 17

CONSENSUS: Florida (7-1)

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