NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Cal Golden Bears

Our staff provides their prediction and analysis as Florida State tries to prevent its first 0-4 start since 2021.

Sep 14, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell leads his team before a game against the Memphis Tigers at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images / Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Florida State remains winless ahead of Week 4 of the 2024 season with the program looking to prevent its first 0-4 start since 2021. The Seminoles will conclude an early three-game homestand with a conference matchup against the undefeated Cal Golden Bears. After officially joining the ACC over the summer, the Golden Bears will play their first conference game on the road in Tallahassee.

Cal is 3-0 with an impressive win on the road at Auburn and home victories against UC Davis (FCS) and San Diego State. Head coach Justin Wilcox has the Golden Bears off to their best start since 2019 in what marks his eighth year guiding the program. The team has a chance to make a statement with a potential win against Florida State on the road.

Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles vs. California Golden Bears

The Golden Bears are bringing in one of the best defenses in the country. Cal is only allowing 288.7 yards and 12.3 points per game while tying for first in the nation with ten turnovers forced, including nine interceptions. On the other side of the ball, star running back Jaydn Ott is expected to play and backup Jaivian Thomas has averaged 7.8 yards per carry in his absence. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza, a Miami native, has done a good job managing games, completing 61/87 passes (70.1%) for 589 yards with five touchdowns to one interception while adding one touchdown on the ground.

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Golden Bears.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

I finally got my first score prediction "win" of the 2024 season though not in the way I was hoping. Once again, Florida State's anemic offense could barely move the ball in an outing that wasted the best effort we've seen from the defense through three games. Obviously, quarterback play needs to be improved but the offensive line woes, drops, and perimeter blocking issues would make it tough for any signal-caller to have success for the Seminoles right now.

I do think the Seminoles had a better week of practice but that's obviously something that can't be trusted anymore. Cal, like Memphis, wants to come into Tallahassee and make a statement. It would certainly be something if the Golden Bears took down Florida State less than a year after it was revealed that FSU was among the teams to vote 'no' to the ACC's new additions.

I'm in the same boat as last week heading into this one. Show me something to make me believe. That didn't happen against Memphis and I'm not certain it'll get any better against Cal. I'll take the Golden Bears by double digits with a predictable outcome of DJ Uiagalelei and Florida State's offense failing to consistently move the ball. Expect some boos in Doak Campbell Stadium.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 1-2

Golden Bears 21, Seminoles 10

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

Better water break energy and the potential of Mike Norvell putting in a different quarterback is what is going to be my Disney magical miracle that gives me the reasoning to pick FSU. I’m expecting DJ Uiagalelei to be the starter but at some point, we’ll see Brock Glenn. But like I said, it will have to be a miracle to happen.

I believe in miracles. FSU gets their first win of the season.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 1-2

Seminoles 21, Golden Bears 20

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

As I said last week, picking Florida State is futile until they prove they're worth picking. I don't care if the water breaks have been better (if you know, you know). I'm assuming this will be similar to the Georgia Tech and Boston College games, with Cal controlling the ball on the ground with limited possessions. The under seems like easy money here.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 1-2

Golden Bears 23, Seminoles 15

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

The outlook in Tallahassee is certainly bleak. "Disappointment" is the word getting thrown around these days, and it's hard to fight that label when you're a long way from the Top 10 ranking and pre-season playoff expectations you once held. Problems are mounting for Norvell's team and solutions appear to be few and far between. Through three games, the Florida State Seminoles are sitting winless, and with each passing week, the program strays further from the standard set forth by last year's team. 

Despite coming off of a much-needed bye week, the Seminoles showcased little to no improvement when they returned to the field against the Memphis Tigers. Florida State's rushing attack is borderline non-existent, sitting at 52.0 rushing yards per game, which ranks 133rd in the country. Quarterback play has been the subject of incessant scrutiny, and while DJ Uiagalelei certainly isn't the sole person to blame for offensive inconsistencies, his deficiencies are a substantial detractor. (Plus, Cal is one of the nation's leaders in forcing INTs with 9) Put simply, an average QBR of 43.1 isn't going to cut it for an offense that currently relies on the quarterback for most, if not all, of its production. The remaining production has come from K Ryan Fitzgerald. FSU will need its offense to find ways to both push the ball downfield and result in more than just field goals if it wishes to take down a Cal football team that is averaging 27.7 points per game. On the other side of the ball, the Seminole defense found more success shutting down the run, getting pressure in the backfield, and getting off of the field on critical third and fourth downs. However, mistakes and mental errors proved costly against the Tigers. The Florida State defense will need to avoid those errors and recreate exactly what it was that worked against the run, because the Golden Bears are cruising on the ground as of late. 

The California Golden Bears, on the other hand, are playing at a much higher level than most expected to begin the season. After defeating the Auburn Tigers in Jordan-Hare Stadium, it would appear as though Cal head coach Justin Wilcox has his team more than prepared for the level of competition within the ACC. Wilcox's team currently boasts an undefeated record, and while many are quick to discount their opponents, I just find it hard for us, as recent viewers of Florida State football, to just assume that those opponents are worse off across the board. The Golden Bears do not need to adapt their gameplay for the likes of this Seminoles squad. If they can continue to find the end zone, score upwards of their average points per game (27.7) and hold FSU to right around their average points against per game (12.3) [which is entirely feasible], then there's no reason to believe the Seminoles will prove to be any different. Regardless, you can expect Cal to roll into Doak Campbell Stadium with the utmost confidence (if their Twitter fanbase isn't already proof enough). 

Florida State and Cal will face off for the first time in the history of these two football programs, and the context could not be further from the pre-season expectation. The winless Seminoles are desperate for their first victory of 2024 and the undefeated Golden Bears are eager to begin ACC conference play on the right foot. Vegas oddsmakers are siding with the Seminoles at (-2.5) and ESPN's matchup predictor gives FSU a 59.3% At this point, I truly don't know what they've seen week in and week out to continue to give a slight edge to the 'Noles. As many of my peers have stated, there's no sense in predicting in favor of the Seminoles until they prove otherwise, and throughout the last few games and a handful of practices, they have not proven otherwise. The "homer" in me wants to secretly slide this prediction in here as a form of reverse psychology and buy-in to Justin Cryer's emphatic statements that this team will get things right. On the other hand, I'm finding it hard to hang my hat on anything positive as of late. Even with the increased water break energy at practice (which gives FSU at least an extra Fitzgerald FG in my book), I think Cal is just playing cleaner, consistent football right now, and sometimes it's just that simple. 

2024 Season Prediction Record: 1-2

Golden Bears 28, Seminoles 13

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

FSU opens up yet again as a favorite despite starting the season at 0-3 and being unable to translate practice performances to success on the field. There isn’t much to say. The Seminoles will have to put it together to beat Cal.

Cal leads the country this season in interceptions (9), and that, paired with FSU quarterback DJ Uiagalelei’s two picks in the last two games, could make it difficult for the Seminole offense to get going. There are questions on the offensive line for the ‘Noles, and they have yet to prove anything on defense in the run game.

Meanwhile, Cal boasts a heavy rushing attack and will return starter Jaydn Ott, who is coming off an injury. Their backup running back, Jaivian Thomas, had a monster game against San Diego State, where he rushed for 169 yards on 17 carries. Florida State will have its hands full, and although I don’t expect a blowout, I don’t expect FSU to be 1-3 when it is all said and done.

Will having offensive coordinator Alex Atkins back make the difference? Time will tell, but I can’t predict a Florida State win until they prove it on the field.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 0-3

Golden Bears 24, Seminoles 20

Kade Kimble (@kadekimble)

Another disappointment is brewing in Tallahassee. The Seminoles' offense is reaching disastrous levels after putting up just 12 points on Memphis. Cal is putting together a strong start to their season, with Florida State doing the opposite. Until Mike Norvell's squad proves they can win a game, it's easy to pick against them.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 1-2

Golden Bears 24, Seminoles 17

Robert Malcom (@kwrobertm)

If you had told me a month ago that I would be picking Cal to beat FSU I would have laughed, but here we are. Through three games, Cal has done what they need to do to win, and although their offense hasn't been particularly dominant, as they have averaged just under 28 points per game against relatively easy opponents, the Seminoles haven't done any better, averaging 16 points per game, with a worse offensive performance each week. 

I can't emphasize enough how important turnovers will be on Saturday. Had FSU not turned the ball over three times against Memphis, the 'Noles probably would have won the game assuming the 10 points Memphis scored during those possessions were taken off the board. Through three games, FSU has not won the turnover margin once, whereas Cal has seen the winning side of things in all three games they have played.  If FSU wants to win, they need to force turnovers rather than give the ball away.

I do see a different energy in the team, I don't think it's where it needs to be for them to be the dominant force they statistically should have been, but I think things are probably trending in the right direction. Even with that being said, this is going to be Cal's Superbowl, and they have all the momentum they need to come in and upset the Seminoles.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 1-2

Golden Bears 24, Seminoles 17

Jackson Bakich (@jacksonbakich)

With the California Golden Bears coming to town, no one expected the 0-3 team to be Florida State. However, that’s the predicament the Seminoles find themselves in.The run game defense stepped up significantly last week against Memphis, but Cal maintains an even better ground attack. They also have the second best turnover margin in the country. FSU is in the bottom tier in that regard. Moreover, Florida State’s offense has been abysmal. I’m not the greatest evaluator of talent; maybe DJ Uiagalelei is performing better in practice than Brock Glenn or Luke Kromenhoek, but if things start going south against Cal, what do you have to lose? At some point, there needs to be a change to see if the offense can gain a spark.If things come to that point, the game will likely be out of reach anyway.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 1-2

Golden Bears 34, Seminoles 20

CONSENSUS: California (7-1)

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READ MORE: FSU Football Labeled Most Disappointing Program This Season

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